Quantitative Economics

Journal Of The Econometric Society

Edited by: Stéphane Bonhomme • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331

Quantitative Economics: Jan, 2024, Volume 15, Issue 1

A Machine Learning Projection Method for Macro-Finance Models

https://doi.org/10.3982/QE1403
p. 145-173

Vytautas Valaitis, Alessandro T. Villa

We use supervised machine learning to approximate the expectations typically contained in the optimality conditions of an economic model in the spirit of the parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA) with stochastic simulation. When the set of state variables is generated by a stochastic simulation, it is likely to suffer from multicollinearity. We show that a neural network‐based expectations algorithm can deal efficiently with multicollinearity by extending the optimal debt management problem studied by Faraglia, Marcet, Oikonomou, and Scott (2019) to four maturities. We find that the optimal policy prescribes an active role for the newly added medium‐term maturities, enabling the planner to raise financial income without increasing its total borrowing in response to expenditure shocks. Through this mechanism, the government effectively subsidizes the private sector during recessions.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "A Machine Learning Projection Method for Macro-Finance Models"

Vytautas Valaitis and Alessandro T. Villa

This supplemental appendix contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "A Machine Learning Projection Method for Macro-Finance Models"

Vytautas Valaitis and Alessandro T. Villa

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8326559. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.