Quantitative Economics
Journal Of The Econometric Society
Edited by: Stéphane Bonhomme • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331
Edited by: Stéphane Bonhomme • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331
Quantitative Economics: Jan, 2024, Volume 15, Issue 1
https://doi.org/10.3982/QE1403
p. 145-173
Vytautas Valaitis, Alessandro T. Villa
We use supervised machine learning to approximate the expectations typically contained in the optimality conditions of an economic model in the spirit of the parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA) with stochastic simulation. When the set of state variables is generated by a stochastic simulation, it is likely to suffer from multicollinearity. We show that a neural network‐based expectations algorithm can deal efficiently with multicollinearity by extending the optimal debt management problem studied by Faraglia, Marcet, Oikonomou, and Scott (2019) to four maturities. We find that the optimal policy prescribes an active role for the newly added medium‐term maturities, enabling the planner to raise financial income without increasing its total borrowing in response to expenditure shocks. Through this mechanism, the government effectively subsidizes the private sector during recessions.
Vytautas Valaitis and Alessandro T. Villa
This supplemental appendix contains material not found within the manuscript.
Vytautas Valaitis and Alessandro T. Villa
The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8326559. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.