This study provides causal evidence that a shock to the relative supply of inputs to production can (1) affect the direction of technological progress and (2) lead to a rebound in the relative price of the input that became relatively more abundant (the strong induced‐bias hypothesis). I exploit the impact of the U.S. Civil War on the British cotton textile industry, which reduced supplies of cotton from the Southern United States, forcing British producers to shift to lower‐quality Indian cotton. Using detailed new data, I show that this shift induced the development of new technologies that augmented Indian cotton. As these new technologies became available, I show that the relative price of Indian/U.S. cotton rebounded to its pre‐war level, despite the increased relative supply of Indian cotton. This is the first paper to establish both of these patterns empirically, lending support to the two key predictions of leading directed technical change theories.
MLA
Hanlon, W. Walker. “Necessity is the Mother of Invention: Input Supplies and Directed Technical Change.” Econometrica, vol. 83, .no 1, Econometric Society, 2015, pp. 67-100, https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA10811
Chicago
Hanlon, W. Walker. “Necessity is the Mother of Invention: Input Supplies and Directed Technical Change.” Econometrica, 83, .no 1, (Econometric Society: 2015), 67-100. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA10811
APA
Hanlon, W. W. (2015). Necessity is the Mother of Invention: Input Supplies and Directed Technical Change. Econometrica, 83(1), 67-100. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA10811
Supplement to "Necessity is the Mother of Invention: Input Supplies and Directed Technical Change"
This online appendix includes (1) additional details about the empirical setting, (2) further information about the data used and (3) additional empirical results and robustness checks.
By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device. Cookies are used to optimize your experience and anonymously analyze website performance and traffic.