
Quantitative Economics
Journal Of The Econometric Society
Edited by: Stéphane Bonhomme • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331
Edited by: Stéphane Bonhomme • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331
Quantitative Economics: Jan, 2023, Volume 14, Issue 1
https://doi.org/10.3982/QE1505
p. 117-159
Laura Liu, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Frank Schorfheide
We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate forecasts for a large cross‐section of short time series of censored observations. Our fully Bayesian approach allows us to flexibly estimate the cross‐sectional distribution of heterogeneous coefficients and then implicitly use this distribution as prior to construct Bayes forecasts for the individual time series. In addition to density forecasts, we construct set forecasts that explicitly target the average coverage probability for the cross‐section. We present a novel application in which we forecast bank‐level loan charge‐off rates for small banks.
Laura Liu, Hyungsik Roger Moon, and Frank Schorfheide
Laura Liu, Hyungsik Roger Moon, and Frank Schorfheide
November 16, 2023
I am delighted to welcome a new member to the Quantitative Economics editorial board. Effective July 1, 2024, Chao Fu (University of Wisconsin-Madison) will become a Co-Editor. Chao is a distinguished scholar with broad expertise in applied economics. Her knowledge and insight will be of great value to the journal.