Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: May, 2021, Volume 89, Issue 3

Asset Pricing with Endogenously Uninsurable Tail Risk

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA15142
p. 1471-1505

Hengjie Ai, Anmol Bhandari

This paper studies asset pricing and labor market dynamics when idiosyncratic risk to human capital is not fully insurable. Firms use long‐term contracts to provide insurance to workers, but neither side can fully commit; furthermore, owing to costly and unobservable retention effort, worker‐firm relationships have endogenous durations. Uninsured tail risk in labor earnings arises as a part of an optimal risk‐sharing scheme. In equilibrium, exposure to the tail risk generates higher aggregate risk premia and higher return volatility. Consistent with data, firm‐level labor share predicts both future returns and pass‐throughs of firm‐level shocks to labor compensation.


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Supplement to "Asset Pricing with Endogenously Uninsurable Tail Risk"

This appendix contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "Asset Pricing with Endogenously Uninsurable Tail Risk"

This zip file contains replication files for the manuscript.  It also contains an additional appendix with material not found within the manuscript.