Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Jul, 2014, Volume 82, Issue 4

Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations
p. 1303-1340

Julian di Giovanni, Andrei A. Levchenko, Isabelle Mejean

This paper uses a data base covering the universe of French firms for the period 1990–2007 to provide a forensic account of the role of individual firms in generating aggregate fluctuations. We set up a simple multisector model of heterogeneous firms selling to multiple markets to motivate a theoretically founded decomposition of firms' annual sales growth rate into different components. We find that the firm‐specific component contributes substantially to aggregate sales volatility, mattering about as much as the components capturing shocks that are common across firms within a sector or country. We then decompose the firm‐specific component to provide evidence on two mechanisms that generate aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic shocks highlighted in the recent literature: (i) when the firm size distribution is fat‐tailed, idiosyncratic shocks to large firms directly contribute to aggregate fluctuations, and (ii) aggregate fluctuations can arise from idiosyncratic shocks due to input–output linkages across the economy. Firm linkages are approximately three times as important as the direct effect of firm shocks in driving aggregate fluctuations.

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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations"

This zip file contains the replication files for the manuscript.

Supplement to "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations"

This appendix contains (I) detailed description of econometric implementation; (ii) detailed data description; (iii) additional empirical results; (iv) model extensions.

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