Econometrica: May 1980, Volume 48, Issue 4
On the Predictability of Economic Events
https://doi.org/0012-9682(198005)48:4<955:OTPOEE>2.0.CO;2-2
p.
955-972
J. S. Jordan
Grunberg and Modigliani [3] investigated the existence of a public prediction which, if believed by economic decision makers, would prove correct. The present paper continues this research using a model of general exchange equilibrium under uncertainty. The principal results is that unless the public prediction is based on a very narrow class of data, a statistically correct prediction may fail to exist even for otherwise well-behaved economies.Log In To View Full Content