Econometrica: May 1980, Volume 48, Issue 4

On the Predictability of Economic Events

https://doi.org/0012-9682(198005)48:4<955:OTPOEE>2.0.CO;2-2
p. 955-972

J. S. Jordan

Grunberg and Modigliani [3] investigated the existence of a public prediction which, if believed by economic decision makers, would prove correct. The present paper continues this research using a model of general exchange equilibrium under uncertainty. The principal results is that unless the public prediction is based on a very narrow class of data, a statistically correct prediction may fail to exist even for otherwise well-behaved economies.
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