Econometrica: Jan 1964, Volume 32, Issue 1

A Case Study in Prediction: The Market for Watermelons

https://doi.org/0012-9682(196401/04)32:1/2<163:ACSIPT>2.0.CO;2-#
p. 163-173

Wilford L. L’Esperance

This paper discusses two forecasting experiments involving models of the water-melon market. The first experiment compares the forecasts of an interdependent model estimated by limited information, single equation with those of a model using least squares reduced form. The second experiment compares the forecasts of the interdependent model with those of a causal chain model. It is found that the forecasts of the interdependent model are generally better than those of the alternative models.

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