Econometrica: Jul 2019, Volume 87, Issue 4

An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA11530
p. 1081-1113

Jeremy Greenwood, Philipp Kircher, Cezar Santos, Michèle Tertilt

Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice‐theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions, namely, ART, circumcision, better condoms, and the treatment of other STDs. The efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework complements the insights from epidemiological studies and small‐scale field experiments.



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