Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Jul, 2005, Volume 73, Issue 4

Probabilities as Similarity‐Weighted Frequencies

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00611.x
p. 1125-1136

Antoine Billot, Itzhak Gilboa, Dov Samet, David Schmeidler

A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity‐weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case.


Log In To View Full Content

Journal News

View