1998 North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society

Summary of Completed Program

HTML version of the complete final Program, updated June 17th, 1998

  1. The first author (*) is the presenter of the paper.
  2. Any error in the program (presenter, co-authors, affiliation, title) should be reported to us at nasm98@cirano.umontreal.ca

Sponsors

The following sponsors are providing financial help for the North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society:

Academic Sponsors

Corporate and Government Sponsors


Wednesday, June 24, 1998

5:00-9:00 pm               Informal gathering (J-M400)

Thursday, June 25, 1998

7:30-8:30 am               Continental breakfast (J-M400)

8:30-10:00 am             First morning sessions

Dynamic Agency Relationships (R-M110)
Strategic Bargaining (R-R150)
Theory (R-R120)
Policy in an Open Economy (R-M120)
Issues in Dynamic Equilibrium Models (R-R130)
Model Selection and Specification Errors (R-M160)
Empirical Game Models (R-M180)

10:30-12:00 noon       Second morning sessions

Advantage in Timing (R-M180)
Rationality in Games (R-R110)
General Equilibrium I (R-R120)
Internal Labour Markets (R-M160)
Money and Search (R-M110)
Cross Section Econometrics (R-R130)
Testing (R-R150)
Advances in Econometrics (R-M120)

12:00-2:00 pm             Lunch break

2:00-4:00 pm               Afternoon sessions

Computational Economics (R-R120)
Contracts I (R-M180)
Auctions I (R-M160)
Social Choice (R-R130)
Money and Credit (R-R150)
Nonparametric and Semiparametric Identification and Inference (R-M110)
Alternative Techniques for Diffusion Estimation (R-M120)

4:30-6:00 pm               Plenary Session -- Peter Howitt (J-M400)

6:15 pm                         Cocktail (DE-R200)

Friday, June 26, 1998

7:30-8:30 am               Continental breakfast (J-M400)

8:30-10:00 am             First morning sessions

Asymmetric Information and Public Choice (R-M160)
Leadership and Cooperation (R-M150)
Games (R-M180)
Industrial Organization (R-M510)
Open Economy Macro (R-M110)
Asset Pricing (R-M120)
Regression and Time Series (R-R130)
Search and Employment (R-R150)

10:30-12:00 noon       Second morning sessions

Contracts II (R-M150)
Financial Difficulties (R-M110)
Investment (R-M180)
Coordination and Collusion (R-M160)
Local Public Goods (R-M510)
General Equilibrium II (R-R130)
Applied Econometrics I (R-M120)
Forecasting (R-R150)

12:00-2:00 pm             Lunch break

12:00-2:00 pm             Program Committee Lunch

2:00-4:00 pm               Afternoon sessions

Intermediation and Asymmetric Information (R-M110)
Property Rights and Incomplete Contracts (R-M150)
Agency Problems (R-M180)
Economies with Asymmetric Information (R-M510)
Business Cycles and Money (R-M120)
Labour Market Flows and Unemployment (R-R130)
Nonstationary Multivariate and Panel Models (R-R150)
Estimation and Testing of Econometric Models I (R-M160)

4:30-6:00 pm               Plenary Session -- Lars Hansen (J-M400)

6:15 pm                         Cocktail (DE-R200)

Saturday, June 27, 1998

7:30-8:30 am               Continental breakfast (J-M400)

8:30-10:00 am             First morning sessions

Contracting and Information (R-M180)
Cooperation in Repeated Games with Moral Hazard (R-R130)
Science and Technology Policy (R-R140)
Topics in Development (R-M510)
Manufacturing Firms and Aggregate Outcomes (R-M110)
Structural Change and Nonlinear Models (R-R150)
New Developments in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics (R-M160)

10:30-12:00 noon       Plenary Session -- Hervé Moulin (J-M400)

12:00-2:00 pm             Lunch break

2:00-4:00 pm               Afternoon sessions

Limited Dependent Models and Semiparametric Estimation I (R-R110)
Estimation and Testing of Econometric Models II (R-R120)
Panel Data (R-R130)
Capital Markets (R-R140)
Business Cycles and Monetary Rules (R-M510)
Empirical Labour Economics (R-M110)
Communication, Contracting and Institutional Design (R-M180)
Empirical Investigations in I.O. (R-M160)
Taxation and Growth (R-R150)

4:30-6:00 pm               Presidential Address -- Jean Tirole (J-M400)

7:30 pm                         Econometric Society Dinner      

Sunday, June 28, 1998

7:30-8:30 am               Continental breakfast (J-M400)

8:30-10:00 am             First morning sessions

Information and Stock Prices (R-R110)
Cooperation and Collusion (R-R120)
Demographics (R-R130)
Rationality (R-M150)
Mechanism Design (R-M510)
Price-Setting and Macroeconomics (R-R150)
Applied Econometrics II (R-M140)
Modeling High-Frequency Market Dynamics (R-R140)
New Empirical Models in Macroeconomics (R-M180)

10:30-12:00 noon       Walras-Bowley Lecture -- Adrian Pagan (J-M400)

12:00-2:00 pm             Lunch break

12:00-2:00 pm             Standing Committee Working Lunch

2:00-4:00 pm               Afternoon sessions

Information and Stock Prices (R-M180)
Limited Dependent Models and Semiparametric Estimation II (R-M140)
Auctions II (R-M150)
Distributive Politics (R-R150)
Foreign Investment (R-R130)
Information and Uncertainty (R-R140)
Axiomatics and Mechanism Design (R-R120)

The Program Committee


Marcel Boyer, Université de Montréal, Chair
Torben G. Andersen, Northwestern University
Susan Athey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Paul Beaudry, University of British Columbia
Jean-Marie Dufour, Université de Montréal
Larry Epstein, The Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
René Garcia, Université de Montréal
Eric Ghysels, The Pennsylvania State University
Bo Honore, Princeton University
Joel L. Horowitz, University of Iowa
Peter Howitt, The Ohio State University
Guido W. Imbens, University of California at Los Angeles
Kenneth Judd, Stanford University
Thomas Lemieux, Université de Montréal
Tracy Lewis, University of Florida
Dilip Mookherjee, Boston University
Hervé Moulin, Duke University
Robert Pindyck, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Jean-François Richard, University of Pittsburgh
Paul Romer, Stanford University
Fallaw Sowell, Carnegie Mellon University
Daniel F. Spulber, Northwestern University

Wednesday, June 24, 5:00-9:00

Informal gathering in the foyer of Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)


Thursday, June 25, 7:30-8:30

Continental breakfast in the foyer of Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)

Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00

Dynamic Agency Relationships           Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Paul Beaudry
Chair: Nabil Al-Najjar, Northwestern University

Shaking the Tree: An Agency-Theoretic Model of Asset Pricing
*Jamsheed Shorish, University of Aarhus
Stephen E. Spear, Carnegie Mellon University
     Discussant: Michel Poitevin, Université de Montréal

Dynamic Risk-Sharing Contract with Non-Commitment and Savings
*Karine Gobert, Université de Montréal
Michel Poitevin, Université de Montréal
     Discussant: Stephen D. Williamson, University of Iowa

The Dynamics of Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
*Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois at Urbana and Queen's University
Dennis Lu, Queen's University
     Discussant: Jacques Lawarrée, University of Washington

Strategic Bargaining           Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Daniel F. Spulber
Chair: Gamal Atallah, Industry Canada and Université de Montréal

"Money or Reputation": A Rational Theory of Blackmail
*
Mikko Leppämäki, University of Helsinki
     Discussant: Joseph E. Harrington Jr., John Hopkins University

Outsiders' Threat or Consecutive Offers: on Shaked and Sutton's Model
*
Quan Wen, University of Windsor
     Discussant: Joseph E. Harrington Jr., John Hopkins University

Bilateral Bargaining under Non-Verifiable Information
*
Anke S. Kessler, University of Bonn
Christoph Lülfesmann, University of Bonn
     Discussant: Zvika Neeman, Boston University

Theory           Thursday, June 25, 8:30-9:30 (R-R120)
Organized by Paul M. Romer
Chair: Emanuela Cardia, Université de Montréal

Competitive Equilibrium Growth
*David K. Levine, UCLA
Michele Boldrin, University Carlos III de Madrid
     Discussant: David De La Croix, Université Catholique de Louvain

Discounting an Uncertain Future
*
Christian Gollier, Université de Toulouse I
     Discussant: James W. Friedman, Unviersity of North Carolina - Chapel Hill

Policy in an Open Economy           Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-M120)
Organized by Peter Howitt and René Garcia
Chair: Dean Corbea, University of Iowa

Growth, Reserve Requirements, and Inflationary Finance in an Open Economy
*
Richard C. Barnett, University of Arkansas
Mun S. Ho, Harvard University
     Discussant: Pamela Labadie, George Washington University

On the Gains to Monetary Union
*
Russel Cooper, Boston University
Hubert Kempf, Université de Paris I
     Discussant: Young-sik Kim, University of Iowa and Victoria University of Wellington

On Government Credit Programs
*
Marco Espinosa-Vega, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Bruce D. Smith, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Chong K. Yip, Chinese University of Hong Kong
     Discussant: Diego Restuccia, University of Minnesota

Issues in Dynamic Equilibrium Models           Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-R130)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Jérôme Detemple, McGill University

Equity, Bonds, Growth and Inflation in a Quadratic Infinite Horizon Economy
*
Michael Magill, University of Southern California
Martine Quinzii, University of California at Davis
     Discussant: Costis Skiadas, Northwestern University

Dynamic Equilibrium with Liquidity Constraints
*
Jérôme Detemple, McGill University
     Discussant: Frank Riedel, Humblodt University

Imperfect Information Leads to Complete Markets if Dividends are Diffusions
*Frank Riedel, Humboldt University
     Discussant: Marcel Rindisbacher, Université de Montréal

Model Selection and Specification Errors           Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Jean-Marie Dufour
Chair: Joanna Jasiak, York University

Integral U-Statistics for Nonlinear Test of Independence
*David Mayer-Foulkes, Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas
     Discussant: Ramazan Gençay, University of Windsor

The Relative Measurement Error Bias in Nonparametric and OLS Regression: Implications for Specification Tests
*Christopher R. Bollinger, Georgia State University
     Discussant: Jeff Racine, University of Southern Florida

Model Selection Criteria in Neural Networks for Financial Time Series Forecasting
*
Min Qi, Kent State University
Guoqiang Zhang, Kent State University
     Discussant: Ramazan Gençay, University of Windsor

Empirical Game Models           Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Jean-François Richard
Chair: Robert C. Marshall, Pennsylvania State University

Identification and Estimation of a Class of Game Theoretic Models
*
Jean-Pierre Florens, Université de Toulouse I
Jean-François Richard, University of Pittsburgh
     Discussant: Tong Li, Washington State University

Learning in Sender-Receiver Games
*
George R. Neumann, University of Iowa
Andreas Blume, University of Iowa
N.E. Savin, University of Iowa
Douglas V. DeJong, University of Iowa and Tilburg University
     Discussant: Holger Sieg, Duke University

Estimating a Bargaining Model with Asymmetric Information
*
Holger Sieg, Duke University
     Discussant: Rafael Tenorio, University of Notre Dame

Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00

Advantage in Timing           Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee and Tracy Lewis
Chair: Lambros Pechlivanos, Université de Toulouse I

Term-Limit Legislation as Response to Incumbency Advantage
*
Kong-Pin Chen, Academia Sinica
     Discussant: Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois and Queen's University

Second-Mover Advantages in Technological Competition
*Heidrun C. Hoppe, Universität Hamburg
Ulrich Lehmann-Grube, Universität Hamburg
     Discussant: Carolyn Pitchik, University of Toronto

Rent Shifting and Inefficiencies in Sequential Bilateral Contracting
*
Leslie M. Marx, University of Rochester
Greg Shaffer, University of Rochester
     Discussant: Sergei Severinov, Stanford University

Rationality in Games           Thursday, June 25, 10:30-11:30 (R-R110)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Maxwell Stinchcombe, University of Texas at Austin

Iterated Dominance and the Implications of Commonly Assumed Rationality
*
Christian Ewerhart, University of Bonn
     Discussant: V. Bhaskar, University of St. Andrews

Conditional Dominance, Rationalizability, and Game Forms
*Makoto Shimoji, University of California at San Diego
Joel Watson, University of California at San Diego
     Discussant: Geir Asheim, University of Oslo

General Equilibrium I           Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00 (R-R120)
Organized by Larry Epstein
Chair: Alessandro Citanna, Carnegie Mellon University

Tiebout Economies with a Continuum of Traders
*
John P. Conley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Myrna Wooders, University of Toronto
     Discussant: Marcus Berliant, Washington University

Empirical Consistency of General Equilibrium Models
*
Susan K. Snyder, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
     Discussant: Lin Zhou, Duke University

Capital Income Taxation in an Open Economy: Implications on International Business Cycles and World Welfare
*
Sunghyun H. Kim, Brandeis University
     Discussant: Alessandro Citanna, Carnegie Mellon University

Internal Labour Markets           Thursday, June 25, 10:30-11:30 (R-M160)
Organized by Thomas Lemieux
Chair: Lars Vilhuber, Université de Montréal and York University

Choice of Technology and Labor Market Consequences: Explaining US-Japanese Differences in Management Styles
*Hodaka Morita, Cornell University
     Discussant: Lars Vilhuber, Université de Montréal and York University

Strategic Recruiting and the Chain of Command: On the Abuse of Authority in Internal Labor Markets
*Guido Friebel, Stockholm School of Economics
Michael Raith, University of Chicago
     Discussant: Pascale Viala, Université de Montréal and EIB

Money and Search           Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Peter Howitt
Chair: Pamela Labadie, George Washington University

Rational Credit Fluctuations in a Search Model of Money
*
Dean Corbae, University of Iowa
Joseph Ritter, Federal Reserve Bank of St-Louis
     Discussant: Jeff Lacker, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Money and the Law of One Price
*Ruilin Zhou, University of Pennsylvania and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Edward J. Green, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
     Discussant: Stephen Williamson, University of Iowa

Money and Prices in a Multiple-Matching Search Model
*Victor E. Li, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Pennsylvania State University
Derek Laing, Pennsylvania State University
Ping Wang, Pennsylvania State University
     Discussant: Shouyong Shi, Quenn's University

Cross Section and Longitudinal Econometrics           Thursday, June 25, 10:30-11:30 (R-R130)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen and Fallaw Sowell
Chair: Paul Rilstone, York University

Estimates of the Returns to Scale for U.S. Manufacturing
*
Alpay Filiztekin, Koç University
Sumru Altug, Koç University
     Discussant: Robert Gagné, HEC - Montréal

Instrument Variable Estimation Based on Mean Absolute Deviation
*Shinichi Sakata, University of Michigan
     Discussant: Paul Rilstone, York University

Testing           Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Bo Honore and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Allan Würtz, University of Aarhus

Testing Conditional Distributions of Dynamic Models
*Jushan Bai, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     Discussant: Marine Carasco, Ohio State University

Bayesian Score Statistics in Linear Models
*Frank Kleibergen, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Richard Paap, Erasmus University Rotterdam
     Discussant: Keisuke Hirano, Harvard University

Monte Carlo Tests for Contemporaneous Correlation of Disturbances in Multi-Equation Regression Models
*
Lynda Khalaf, Université Laval
Jean-Marie Dufour, Université de Montréal
     Discussant: Allan Würtz, University of Aarhus

Advances in Econometrics           Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00 (R-M120)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: James MacKinnon, Queen's University

A Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Test for Time Series
*
Atsushi Inoue, University of Pennsylvania
     Discussant: Nour Meddahi, Université de Montréal

Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses
*
Tim Vogelsang, Cornell University
Nick Keifer, Cornell University
Helle Bunzel, Cornell University
     Discussant: Jean-Marie Dufour, Université de Montréal

Structural Change Tests for Simulated Method of Moments
*
Alain Guay, Université du Québec à Montréal
Eric Ghysels, Pennsylvania State University
     Discussant: Harold Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University

Thursday, June 25, 2:00-4:00

Computational Economics           Thursday, June 25, 2:00-4:00 (R-R120)
Organized by Kenneth Judd
Chair: Martine Quinzii, University of California at Davis

Convergence of Trading Networks: A Simulation Approach
*Ann Maria Bell, Vanderbilt University
     Discussant: Max R. Blouin, Brown University

An Empirical Model of Human Strategic Behavior in Economies with Multiple Equilibria
*
Ernan Haruvy, University of Texas at Austin
Dale O. Stahl, University of Texas at Austin
     Discussant: Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Keio Univeristy

Magic on the Internet: Evidence from Field Experiments on Reserve Prices in Auctions
*
David Lucking-Reiley, Vanderbilt University
     Discussant: Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology

Computational Playability of Backward Induction Solutions II
*Hidetoshi Tashiro, Hitotsubashi University
     Discussant: Thomas Brenner, Max-Planck-Institute for Research into Economic Systems

Contracts I           Thursday, June 25, 2:00-3:30 (R-M180)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Tracy Lewis, University of Florida

Contracting with Externalities
*Ilya Segal, University of California at Berkeley
     Discussant: Michel Poitevin, Université de Montréal

The Dynamics of Inequality Under Moral Hazard
*Ezra Friedman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     Discussant: Karine Gobert, Université de Montréal

Optimal Structure of Agency with Product Complementarity and Substitutability
*
Sergei Severinov, Stanford University
     Discussant: Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon Univeraity

Auctions I           Thursday, June 25, 2:00-4:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Jean-François Richard
Chair: Jean-François Richard, University of Pittsburgh

Independent Private Value Multi-Unit Demand Auctions: An Experiment Comparing Uniform Price and Dynamic Vickrey Auctions
*Dan Levin, Ohio State University
John M. Kagel, University of Pittsburgh
     Discussant: Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland

Multiple-Unit Demand Auctions: Theory and Experimental Evidences
*
Jacques Robert, Université de Montréal
Marie Corriveau, CIRANO
Claude Montmarquette, Université de Montréal
     Discussant: John M. Kagel, University of Pittsburgh

The Optimality of Being Efficient
*
Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland
     Discussant: Susan Athey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The Effect of the Reservation Price on Revenue and Efficiency in a Multiple-Unit Auction
*Michal Bresky, The Economics Institute of the Academy of Science of the Czech Republic
     Discussant: Claude Montmarquette, Université de Montréal

Social Choice           Thursday, June 25, 2:00-3:30 (R-R130)
Organized by Hervé Moulin
Chair: Michel Truchon, Université Laval

Income Convergence and Assimilation: The Economics of Mating Taboos
*
Linda Wong, University of Iowa
     Discussant: Ruqu Wang, Queen's University

On the Structure of Choice under Different External References
*Wulf Gaertner, Universität Osnabrück
Yongsheng Xu, University of Nottingham
     Discussant: Walter Bossert, University of Nottingham

Protecting Minorities through Voting Rules
*
Alain Trannoy, Université de Cergy-Pontoise
Régis Renault, Université des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse
     Discussant: Marcus Berliant, Washington University

Money and Credit           Thursday, June 25, 2:00-4:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Peter Howitt
Chair: Derek Laing, Pennsylvania State University

Coalition-Proof Risk Sharing with Private Information and Side Trading
*Jeffrey M. Lacker, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Peter N. Ireland, Rutgers University
     Discussant: Dean Corbea, University of Iowa

Liquidity, Interbank Market, and the Role of Central Bank
*Young-sik Kim, The University of Iowa and Victoria University of Wellington
     Discussant: Richard Barnett, University of Arkansas

Money, Credit, and Allocation Under Complete Dynamic Contracts and Incomplete Markets
*Stephen D. Williamson, The University of Iowa
S. Rao Aiyagari, University of Rochester
     Discussant: Roger D. Lagunoff, Georgetown University

On Aggregate Precautionary Saving: When is the Third Derivative Irrelevant?
*
Mark Huggett, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
Sandra Ospina, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
     Discussant: Christian Gollier, Université des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse

Nonparametric and Semiparametric Identification and Inference           Thursday, June 25, 2:00-3:30 (R-M110)
Organized by Joel Horowitz
Chair: N. Eugene Savin, University of Iowa

Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Dynamic Single Duration Model
*Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago
James Heckman, University of Chicago
Ed Vytlacil, University of Chicago
     Discussant: Yuichi Kitamura, University of Minnesota

Edgeworth Approximations for Semiparametric Instrumental Variable Estimators and Test Statistics
*
Olivier Linton, Yale University
     Discussant: Yuichi Kitamura, University of Minnesota

Nonparametric Estimation of an Additive Model with an Unknown Link Function
*
Joel L. Horowitz, University of Iowa
     Discussant: Oliver B. Linton, Yale University

Alternative Techniques for Diffusion Estimation           Thursday, June 25, 2:00-3:30 (R-M120)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Torben G. Andersen, Northwestern Univeristy

A Simple Bayesian Approach to the Analysis of Markov Diffusion Processes
*Christopher S. Jones, University of Pennsylvania
     Discussant: Bjorn Eraker, Norwegian School of Economics

MCMC Analysis of Diffusion Models with Application to Finance
*Bjorn Eraker, Norwegian School of Economics
     Discussant: Christopher S. Jones, University of Pennsylvania

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-Form Approach
*Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago
     Discussant: Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago

Thursday, June 25, 4:30-6:00
Plenary Session
Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)

Chair: Pierre Lasserre, Université du Québec à Montréal

Economic Growth and Creative Destruction: Recent Developments
*Peter Howitt, Ohio State University

Thursday, June 25, 6:15

Cocktail Design Center Exhibition Hall (DE-R200)


Friday, June 26, 7:30-8:30

Continental breakfast in the foyer of Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)

Friday, June 26, 8:30-9:30

Asymmetric Information and Public Choice           Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Paul Beaudry, University of British Columbia

Pivotal Players and the Characterization of Influence
*Nabil I. Al-Najjar, Northwestern University
Rann Smorodinski, Northwestern University
     Discussant: Zvika Neeman, Boston University

Efficiency and Information Aggregation in Auctions with Costly Information
*Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology
Valentina A. Bali, California Institute of Technology
     Discussant: Larry Ausubel, University of Maryland

Leadership and Cooperation           Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M150)
Organized by Robert Pindyck and Hervé Moulin
Chair: Roger D. Lagunoff, Georgetown University

An Economic Theory of Leadership Turnover
*Carolyn Pitchik, University of Toronto
Maria Gallego, Wilfrid Laurier University
     Discussant: Mikko Leppämäki, University of Helsinki

Cooperative or Noncooperative Behavior? A Note to the Testable Implications of Collective Choice Theories
*Yves Sprumont, Université de Montréal
     Discussant: Wulf Gaertner, Universität Osnabrück

Endogenous Coalition Formation in Rivalry
*Ruqu Wang, Queen's University
Guofu Tan, University of British Columbia and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
     Discussant: Sanchul Suh, University of Windsor

Games           Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Larry Epstein
Chair: William Bentley MacLeod, University of Southern California

Finitistic Games
*
Maxwell Stinchcombe, University of Texas at Austin
Chris Harris, University of California at Los Angeles
Bill Zane, University of California at Los Angeles
     Discussant: John Conley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Managing a Reputation
*Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
George Mailath, University of Pennsylvania
     Discussant: Leslie M. Marx, University of Rochester

A Theory of Rigid Extremists and Flexible Moderates with an Application to the U.S. Congress
*Joseph E. Harrington Jr., John Hopkins University
S. Brock Blomberg, Wellesley College
     Discussant: Sergei Severinov, Stanford University

Industrial Organization           Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M510)
Organized by Daniel F. Spulber
Chair: Al Slivinski, University of Western Ontario

Entry Deterrence and Entry Inducement in an Industry with Complementary Products
*
Jeong-Yoo Kim, Dongguk University
     Discussant: Paul Johnson, Université de Montréal

Underinvestment and Market Structure
*
Volker Nocke, London School of Economics
     Discussant: Paul Johnson, Université de Montréal

The Informational Value of Sequential Fundraising
*
Lise Vesterlund, Iowa State University
     Discussant: Pascale Viala, Université de Montréal and EIB

Open Economy Macro           Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Peter Howitt
Chair: Richard Barnett, University of Arkansas

Slow North-South Convergence When Labor and Capital are Perfectly Mobile
*Wilbur John Coleman II, Duke University
Francesco Caselli, University of Chicago
     Discussant: Jeff Campbell, University of Rochester

Dynamic Collusion, Pricing to Market, and Real Exchange Rates
*Michael Devereux, University of British Columbia
*Roberto Chang, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
     Discussant: William S. Polley, University of Iowa

Investment and the Current Account in the Short Run and the Long Run
*
James M. Nason, University of British Columbia
John H. Rogers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
     Discussant: Emanuela Cardia, Université de Montréal

Asset Pricing           Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M120)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: René Garcia, Université de Montréal

Asset Prices with Contingent Risk Preferences
*Stephen Gordon, Université Laval
Pascal St-Amour, Université Laval
     Discussant: Simon van Norden, HEC - Montréal

Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities with Neural Networks and a Homogeneity Hint
*Ramazan Gençay, Bilkent University
René Garcia, Université de Montréal
     Discussant: Min Qi, Kent State University

Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle?
*Charles H. Whiteman, University of Iowa
Christopher Otrok, University of Iowa
B. Ravikumar, University of Iowa
     Discussant: René Garcia, Université de Montréal

Regression and Time Series           Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-R130)
Organized by Jean-Marie Dufour
Chair: Lynda Khalaf, Université Laval

Bias and Mean Squared Error of Least Squares Estimators in Dynamic Regression Models with a Unit Root
*Jan F. Kiviet, University of Amsterdam
Garry D.A. Phillips, University of Exeter
     Discussant: N. Eugene Savin, University of Iowa

Estimation in Multivariate Time Series Regression Models with Elliptically Symmetric Errors
*
Douglas J. Hodgson, University of Rochester
Oliver B. Linton, Yale University
Eugene Choo, Yale University
     Discussant: Guido M. Kuersteiner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Robust Wald Tests in Sur Systems with Adding Up Restrictions: An Algebraic Approach to Proofs of Invariance
*
Surajit Ray, University of Iowa
B. Ravikumar, University of Iowa
N. Eugene Savin, University of Iowa
     Discussant: Lynda Khalaf, Université Laval

Search and Employment           Friday, June 26, 8:30-9:30 (R-R150)
Organized by Paul Beaudry and Thomas Lemieux
Chair: Pierre Cahuc, Université de Paris I

Job Search and Firm Size Distribution Effects on Wages: Theory and Evidence
*Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Keio University
Henrich R. Greve, University of Tsukuba
     Discussant: Marc Van Audenrode, Université Laval

Product Market and the Size Wage Differential
*
Shouyong Shi, Queen's University
     Discussant: Jean Fares, Banque du Canada

Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00

Contracts II           Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M150)
Organized by Daniel F. Spulber
Chair: Nabil Al-Najjar, Northwestern University

Double Moral Hazard and Multi-Dimensional Signaling in Principal-Agent Contract Negotiations: A Study of the National Football League
*
Mike Conlin, Cornell University
Patrick Emerson, Cornell University
Dennis Wilson, University of Kentucky
     Discussant: Patrick González, Université Laval

Over-Compensation as a Partial Solution to Commitment and Renegotiation Problems: The Case of Ex-Post Moral Hazard
*Martin Boyer, HEC - Montréal
     Discussant: Thomas Palfrey, California Institute of Technology

Strategy-Proof Solutions in a Permit Sharing Problem
*
Sangchul Suh, University of Windsor
     Discussant: Guido Friebel, Stockholm School of Economics

Financial Difficulties           Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Paul Beaudry
Chair: James M. Nason, University of British Columbia

A Model of Financial Fragility
*Roger D. Lagunoff, Georgetown University
Stacey L. Schreft, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
     Discussant: Jeffrey M. Lacker, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Financial Constraints, Cost of Capital and Net Worth
*Pamela Labadie, George Washington University
     Discussant: Dean Corbae, University of Iowa

Wage Concessions and Debt Forgiveness as Strategic Responses to Financial Distress
*Pascale Viala, Université de Montréal and EIB
David N. Margolis, Université de Paris I
     Discussant: Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois and Queen's University

Investment           Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Hervé Moulin
Chair: Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology

Technology Choice under Uncertainty on the Demand
*Corinne Chaton, Université de Toulouse I
     Discussant: Alain Trannoy, Université de Cergy-Pontoise

Capital Accumulation through "Controlled Competitions": Two Stage Tournaments as a Strategy for Firm Growth
*Yutaka Suzuki, Hosei University
     Discussant: Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, École Polytechnique de Montréal

Designing Optimal Patents
*Corinne Langinier, University of California at Berkeley
     Discussant: Leslie Marx, University of Rochester

Coordination and Collusion           Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Daniel F. Spulber and Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: James W. Friedman, University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill

Semicollusion in the Norwegian Cement Market
*Frode Steen, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
Lars Sorgard, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
     Discussant: Al Slivinski, University of Western Ontario

Consumption Externalities, Coordination and Advertising
*
Ivan Pastine, Bilkent University
Tuvana Pastine, Bilkent University
     Discussant: Al Slivinski, University of Western Ontario

Collusion in a Model of Repeated Auctions
*
Paul Johnson, Université de Montréal
Jacques Robert, Université de Montréal
     Discussant: Yongmin Chen, University of Colorado at Boulder

Local Public Goods           Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M510)
Organized by Hervé Moulin
Chair: John Conley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Local Public Goods and Clubs: A Unified Theory of First Best
*Marcus Berliant, Washington University
John H.Y. Edwards, Tulane University
     Discussant: Oscar Volij, Brown University

Fiscal Externalities
*Andrew D. Austin, University of Houston
     Discussant: Robert J. Gary-Bobo, Université de Cergy-Pontoise

Tiebout and Redistribution in a Model of Residential and Political Choice
*
Christoph Lülfesmann, University of Bonn
Anke S. Kessler, University of Bonn
     Discussant: John Conley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

General Equilibrium II           Friday, June 26, 10:30-11:30 (R-R130)
Organized by Larry Epstein
Chair: Shouyong Shi, Queen's University

Measurement Error in General Equilibrium: The Aggregate Effects of Noisy Economic Indicators
*Antulio N. Bomfim, Federal Reserve Board
     Discussant: Alok Johri, McMaster University

Walrasian Allocations without Price-Taking Behavior
*Roberto Serrano, Brown University
Oscar Volij, Brown University
     Discussant: Maxwell Stinchcombe, University of Texas at Austin

Applied Econometrics I           Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M120)
Organized by Guido W. Imbens
Chair: Paul Rilstone, York University

Nonparametric Estimation of Competing Risks Models with Applications
*Shiferaw Gurmu, University of Virginia
José Canals, University of Virginia
     Discussant: Hans van Ophem, University of Amsterdam

Instrumental Variables Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects
*Josh Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Alberto Abadie,
Guido W. Imbens, University of California at Los Angeles
     Discussant: Phil Merrigan, Université du Québec à Montréal

2-Step Estimation of Semiparametric Censored Regression Models
*Shakeeb Khan, University of Virginia
James L. Powell, University of California at Berkeley
     Discussant: Paul Rilstone, York University

Forecasting           Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Bryan Campbell, Concordia University

Unit Roots and Forecasting: To Difference or Not to Difference?
*Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan
Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania
     Discussant: Tim Vogelsang, Cornell University

Content Horizons for Time Series Economic Forecasts
*John W. Galbraith, McGill University
     Discussant: Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan

Using Information Criteria to Draw Inference on Existence of Unit Roots and Cointegration
*
Chor-yiu Sin, City University of Hong Kong
     Discussant: John W. Galbraith, McGill University

Friday, June 26, 12:00-2:00
Program Committee Lunch

Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00

Intermediation and Asymmetric Information           Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Daniel F. Spulber, Dilip Mookherjee and Tracy Lewis
Chair: Daniel F. Spulber, Northwestern University

Adverse Selection with Competitive Inspection
*James W. Friedman, University of North Carolina
Gary Biglaiser, FCC and University of North Carolina
     Discussant: Ruqu Wang, Queen's University

Strategic Behavior and Price Discovery
*
Luis Angel Medrano, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Xavier Vives, Institut d'Analisi Economica CSIC
     Discussant: Quan Wen, University of Windsor

Positive Information Rents with Correlated Information
*
Zvika Neeman, Boston University
     Discussant: Quan Wen, University of Windsor

The Effect of Information on the Well-Being of the Uninformed: What's the Chance of Getting a Decent Meal in an Unfamiliar City?
*
James Albrecht, Georgetown University
Harald Lang, Royal Institute of Technology
Susan Vroman, Georgetown University
     Discussant: Anke S. Kessler, University of Bonn

Property Rights and Incomplete Contracts           Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M150)
Organized by Susan Athey
Chair: Joanne Roberts, Queen's University

Property Rights and Incomplete Contracts: Dealing with Nuisance
*
Christopher M. Snyder, George Washington University
Rohan Pitchford, Australian National University
     Discussant: Ilya Segal, University of California at Berkeley

Joint Ventures and Stock Markets as Commitment Devices
*
Tridib Sharma, Instituto Technologico Autonomo de Mexico
     Discussant: Shira B. Lewin, Iowa State University

Bargaining Power, Outside Options and the Boundaries of the Firm
*
Yanni Tournas, Rutgers University
Rudolf Kerschbamer, University of Vienna
     Discussant: Christopher M. Snyder, George Washington University

The Allocation of Ownership Rights in the Presence of Non-Cooperative Bargaining
*
Ayse Mumcu, Bilkent University
     Discussant: Patrick González, Université Laval

Agency Problems           Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Susan Athey
Chair: Pascale Viala, Université de Montréal and EIB

Dynamic Common Agency
*Dirk Bergemann, Yale University
Juuso Valimaki, Northwestern University
     Discussant: Jacques Robert, Université de Montréal

Ex-Post Choice of Monitoring
*
Jacques Lawarrée, University of Washington
Fahad Khalil, University of Washington
     Discussant: Martin Boyer, HEC - Montréal

Restoring Higher-Powered Incentives through Audits
*
Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, École Polytechnique de Montréal
     Discussant: Lambros Pechlivanos, Université de Toulouse I

Why Promotions
*Régis Renault, Université de Toulouse I
Emmanuelle Auriol, Université d'Aix-Marseille II
     Discussant: Hakan Orbay, Koç University

Economies with Asymmetric Information           Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M510)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin

Moral Hazard and Non-Exclusive Contracts
*Danilo Guaitoli, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Alberto Bisin, New York University
     Discussant: Jamsheed Shorish, University of Aarhus

A Decentralized Market with Common Values Uncertainty: Non-Steady States
*Max R. Blouin, Brown University
Roberto Serrano, Brown University
     Discussant: Martine Quinzii, University of California at Davis

Communication, Credible Improvements and the Core of an Economy with Asymmetric Information
*
Oscar Volij, Brown University
     Discussant: Michael Magill, University of Southern California

Competitive Equilibrium with Moral Hazard in Economies with Multiple Commodities
*
Alessandro Citanna, Carnegie Mellon University
Antonio Villanacci, Università di Firenze
     Discussant: John P. Conley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Business Cycles and Money           Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M120)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Angelo Melino, University of Toronto

Aggregate Employment, Real Business Cycles, and Superior Information
*Michel Normandin, Université du Québec à Montréal
Martin Boileau, University of Toronto
     Discussant: Timothy Cogley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Learning by Doing and Aggregate Fluctuations
*Alok Johri, McMaster University
R. Cooper, Boston University
     Discussant: Michel Normandin, Université du Québec à Montréal

Variability in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity
*
Ka-fu Wong, Chinese University of Hong Kong
     Discussant: Bryan Campbell, Concordia University

Uncovering Financial Market Beliefs about Inflation Targets
*
Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, Université de Montréal
     Discussant: Angelo Melino, University of Toronto

Labour Market Flows and Unemployment           Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-R130)
Organized by Thomas Lemieux and Guido W. Imbens
Chair: Nicole Fortin, Université de Montréal

Job Protection Laws and Jobs: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
*Marc Van Audenrode, Université Laval
Jimmy Royer, Université Laval
     Discussant: Lars Vilhuber, Université de Montréal and York University

Search Unemployment with Advance Notice
*
Pietro Garibaldi, International Monetary Fund
     Discussant: Shouyoung Shi, Queen's University

Technology Choice and Employment Dynamics at Young and Old Plants
*
Jeffrey R. Campbell, University of Rochester
Jonas D.M. Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and University of Western Ontario
     Discussant: Curtis Eberwein, McGill University

Hours Equations, IV Estimation and Nonlinear Measurement Error
*Norman K. Thurston, Brigham Young University
Karl N. Snow, Brigham Young University
     Discussant: George Neumann, University of Iowa

Nonstationary Multivariate and Panel Models           Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Jean Mercenier, Université de Montréal

Nonstationary Index Models
*Yoosoon Chang, Rice University
Joon Y. Park, Seoul National University
     Discussant: Benoit Perron, Université de Montréal

Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles
*
Alain Hecq, University Maastricht
Franz C. Palm, University Maastricht
Jean-Pierre Urbain, University Maastricht
     Discussant: Jacques Raynauld, HEC - Montréal

Frequency Domain Inference for Impulse Responses
*Jonathan Wright, University of Virginia
     Discussant: Lynda Khalaf, Université Laval

On the Role of Human Capital in Growth Models: Evidence from a Nonstationary Panel of Developing Countries
*
Peter Pedroni, Indiana University
     Discussant: Jean Mercenier, Université de Montréal

Estimation and Testing of Econometric Models I           Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Fallaw Sowell
Chair: Douglas Hodgson, University of Rochester

An Extended Yule-Walker Method for Estimating a Vector Autoregressive Model with Mixed-Frequency Data
*Peter A. Zadrozny, Congressional Budget Office
Baoline Chen, Rutgers University - Camden
     Discussant: Harold Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University

Testing for Serial Correlation of Unknown Form Using Wavelet Methods
*Jin Lee, Cornell University
Yongmiao Hong, Cornell University
     Discussant: Aris Spanos, Cornell University

Multiple Vector Autoregressions and Impulse Response Analysis
*André J. Hoogstrate, Tilburg University
     Discussant: Alain Paquet, Université du Québec à Montréal

Shape-Preserving Estimation of Diffusions
*Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago
Lars Hansen, University of Chicago
Jose Scheinkman, University of Chicago
     Discussant: Éric Renault, CREST and INSEA

Friday, June 26, 4:30-6:00
Plenary Session
Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Chair: Torben G. Andersen, Northwestern university

Risk and Robustness in General Equilibrium
*Lars Hansen, University of Chicago

Friday, June 26, 6:15

Cocktail Design Center Exhibition Hall (DE-R200)


Saturday, June 27, 7:30-8:30

Continental breakfast in the foyer of Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)

Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00

Contracting and Information           Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Tracy Lewis
Chair: Tracy Lewis, University of Florida

Limited Attention and Incomplete Contracts
*
Sharon Gifford, Rutgers University
     Discussant: Huseyin Yildirim, University of Florida

Specific Investment, Commitment and Observability
*Patrick González, Université Laval
     Discussant: Ruqu Wang, Queen's University

Strategic Bidding by Potential Competitors: Will Monopoly Persist?
*Yongmin Chen, University of Colorado at Boulder
     Discussant: Tracy Lewis, University of Florida

Cooperation in Repeated Games with Moral Hazard           Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-R130)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Jacques Robert, Université de Montréal

Moral Hazard and Private Monitoring
*V. Bhaskar, University of St. Andrews
Eric van Damme, Tilburg University
     Discussant: Nabil Al-Najjar, Northwestern University

Discounted Repeated Games with Imperfect Private Monitoring
*
Massimiliano Amarante, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     Discussant: Stefan Ambec, Université de Montréal

Teamwork Management: Optimal Incentive Contracts and Optimal Team Size in an Era of Diminishing Commitment
*Lambros Pechlivanos, Université de Toulouse I
Emmanuelle Auriol, Université de Toulouse I
Guido Friebel, Stockholm School of Economics
     Discussant: Fahad Khalil, University of Washington

Science and Technology Policy           Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-R140)
Organized by Paul M. Romer
Chair: Timothy Cogley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Can Government-Industry R&D Programs Increase Private R&D? The Case of the Small Business Innovation Research Program
*
Scott J. Wallsten, Stanford University
     Discussant: Lutz Hendricks, Arizona State University

The Impact of Federally Funded Basic Research on Industrial Innovation: Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry
*
Andrew A. Toole, Stanforc University
     Discussant: Paul Beaudry, University of British Columbia

Three Ways of Improving Growth and (Maybe) Welfare in a Model of Endogenous Technological Change
*
Andreas Höfert, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
     Discussant: Timothy Cogley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Topics in Development           Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-M510)
Organized by Paul M. Romer
Chair: Joanne Roberts, Queen's University

Spatial Patterns in Labor Markets: Malaysian Development
*Timothy G. Conley, Northwestern University
Frederick Flyer, New York University
Grace Tsiang, University of Chicago
     Discussant: Anne Beeson Royalty, Stanford University

Technology Adoption and Schooling: Amplifier Income Effects of Policies Across Countries
*
Diego Restuccia, University of Minnesota
     Discussant: Hugo Benitez-Silva, Yale University

Endogenous Business Networks
*
Raja Kali, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
     Discussant: Joanne Roberts, Queen's University

Manufacturing Firms and Aggregate Outcomes           Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Paul Beaudry
Chair: David De La Croix, Université Catholique de Louvain

A Deeper Look at Job Destruction: Matching Theories and Evidence
*
Scott Schuh, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Robert Triest, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
     Discussant: Sumru Altug, Koç University

Labor Productivity in U.S. Manufacturing: Does Sectoral Comovement Reflect Technology Shocks?
*
Michael T. Kiley, Federal Reserve Board
     Discussant: Russell Cooper, Boston University

Does Total Factor Productivity Fall after the Adoption of New Technology?
*Sandra Ospina, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
Mark Huggett, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
     Discussant: Rajeev Dhawan, University of California at Los Angeles

Structural Change and Nonlinear Models           Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Jean-Marie Dufour
Chair: Jan Kiviet, University of Amsterdam

Linear Covariance Matrix Lower Bounds for Time Series Estimators
*Guido M. Kuersteiner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     Discussant: Douglas J. Hodgson, University of Rochester

Stochastic Permanent Breaks
*
Aaron D. Smith, University of California at San Diego
Robert F. Engle, University of California at San Diego
     Discussant: Valentina Corradi, University of Pennsylvania

A Simple Almost Sure Rule for Detecting Multiple Structural Breaks
*Filippo Altissimo, Bank of Italy
Valentina Corradi, University of Pennsylvania
     Discussant: Tim Vogelsang, Cornell University

New Developments in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics           Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Joel Horowitz
Chair: Paul Rilstone, York University

Nonregular Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Auction, Job Search and Production Frontier Models
*Han Hong, Stanford University
     Discussant: Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago

The Effect of Nuisance Parameters on Size and Power: LM Tests in Logit Models
*Allan Würtz, University of Aarhus
Gene Savin, University of Iowa
     Discussant: Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago

Causal Inference in Encouragement Designs with Covariates
*Keisuke Hirano, Harvard University
Guido Imbens, University of California at Los Angeles
Xiao-Hua Zhou, Indiana University
Donald B. Rubin, Harvard University
     Discussant: Paul Rilstone, York University

Saturday, June 27, 10:30-12:00
Plenary Session
Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Chair: Jean-Marie Dufour, Université de Montréal

Random Priority: A Probabilistic Resolution of the Tragedy of the Commons
*Hervé Moulin, Duke University

Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00

Limited Dependent Models and Semiparametric Estimation I           Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-R110)
Organized by Guido W. Imbens
Chair: Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, New York University

Estimating Derivatives in Nonseparable Models with Limited Dependent Variables
*Hidehiko Ichimura, University of Pittsburgh
Joseph G. Altonji, Northwestern University
     Discussant: Shekeeb Khan, University of Virginia

An Empirical Likelihood Approach to Conditional Moment Restriction Models
*Yuichi Kitamura, University of Minnesota
Hyungtaik Ahn, Korea Information Society Development Institute
     Discussant: Keisuke Hirano, Harvard University

Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference
*Jeff Racine, University of South Florida
Chunrong Ai, University of Florida
     Discussant: William Horrace, University of Arizona

Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Quasi-Experimental Regression-Discontinuity Design
*Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, New York University
Jinyong Hahn, University of Pennsylvania
Petra Todd, University of Pennsylvania
     Discussant: Joshua Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Estimation and Testing of Econometric Models II           Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-R120)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, Eric Ghysels and Fallaw Sowell
Chair: Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago

A Frequency Decomposition of Approximation Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models
*Timothy Cogley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     Discussant: Éric Renault, CREST and INSEA

Statistical Adequacy and the Testing of Trend Versus Difference Stationarity
*
Aris Spanos, University of Cyprus
Elena C. Andreou, University of Manchester
     Discussant: Peter Zadrozny, Congressional Budget Office

Specification Tests in the Efficient Method of Moments Framework with Application to the Stochastic Volatility Models
*Harold H. Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University
Ming Liu, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
     Discussant: Valentina Corradi, University of Pennsylvania

Calibration of Structural Models by Indirect Inference
*Éric Renault, CREST and INSEA
Laurence Broze, CORE and Université de Lille 3
Ramdan Dridi, Université de Toulouse I
     Discussant: Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago

Panel Data           Saturday, June 27, 2:00-3:30 (R-R130)
Organized by Bo Honore
Chair: Shakeeb Khan, University of Virginia

Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions with AR(1) Disturbances
*Badi H. Baltagi, Texas A&M University
Ping X. Wu, University of Melbourne
     Discussant: Shakeeb Khan, University of Virginia

Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data
*
Chihwa Kao, Syracuse University
     Discussant: Guido Kuersteiner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Does Stockholding Provide Perfect Risk Sharing?
*
Muhammet Fatih Guvenen, Carnegie Mellon University
     Discussant: Shakeeb Khan, University of Virginia

Capital Markets           Saturday, June 27, 2:00-3:30 (R-R140)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Bo Honore
Chair: Stephen Gordon, Université Laval

Capital Markets and the Evolution of Family Businesses
*
B. Ravikumar, University of Iowa
Utpal Bhattacharya, Indiana University
     Discussant: Christian Gollier, Université de Toulouse I

American Option Pricing under GARCH by a Markov Chain Approximation
*
Jean-Guy Simonato, HEC - Montréal
Jin-Chuan Duan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
     Discussant: Peter Christoffersen, International Monetary Fund Research Department

Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns
*
Thomas H. McCurdy, University of Toronto
John M. Maheu, Queen's University
     Discussant: Stephen Gordon, Université Laval

Business Cycles and Monetary Rules           Saturday, June 27, 2:00-3:30 (R-M510)
Organized by René Garcia and Peter Howitt
Chair: Paul R. Bergin, University of California at Davis

The Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules to Model Uncertainty
*John C. Williams, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Andrew Levin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Volker Wieland, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
     Discussant: Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, Université de Montréal

Non-Steady State Equilibrium in a Random Matching Monetary Model: A Dynamical Systems Approach
*Ted Temzelides, University of Iowa
Hector Lomeli, University of Colorado
     Discussant: Steve Ambler, Université du Québec à Montréal

Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy
*
Zheng Liu, Clark University
     Discussant: James M. Nason, University of British Columbia

Empirical Labour Economics           Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Thomas Lemieux
Chair: Thomas Lemieux, Université de Montréal

A Discrete Choice Estimator of Workers' Valuation of Fringe Benefits
*Anne Beeson Royalty, Stanford University
     Discussant: Jorgen Hansen, Concordia University

Examining the Link Between Wages and Quality in the Teacher Workforce: The Role of Alternative Labor Market Opportunities and Non-Pecuniary Variation
*Marianne E. Page, University of California at Davis
Susanna Loeb, University of Michigan
     Discussant: Kelly Bedard, McMaster University

An Empirical Analysis of the Social Security Disability Application, Appeal, and Award Process
*Hugo Benitez-Silva, Yale University
John Rust, Yale University
Hiu-Man Chan, Yale University
Sofia Sheidvasser, Yale University
Moshe Buchinsky, Brown University
     Discussant: Phil Merrigan, Université du Québec à Montréal

Subjective Discount Rates, Unobserved Ability, Family Background and the Return to Schooling
*Christian Belzil, Concordia University
Jörgen Hansen, Université de Montréal and Göteborg University
     Discussant: Phil Merrigan, Université du Québec à Montréal

Communication, Contracting, and Institutional Design           Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Susan Athey and Hervé Moulin
Chair: Lin Zhou, Duke University

Autonomy, Contractibility, and the Franchise Relationship
*
Shira B. Lewin, Iowa State University
     Discussant: Régis Renault, Université des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse

Cost Reducing Strategies
*
Pau Olivella, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Maite Pastor, Centro de Estudios Universitarios San Pablo
     Discussant: Yongmin Chen, University of Colorado at Boulder

Plea Bargaining and "Truth-Telling"
*Joanne Roberts, Queen's University
     Discussant: Guofu Tan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

A Model of Expertise
*John Morgan, Princeton University
Vijay Krishna,
     Discussant: Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, École Polytechnique

Empirical Investigations in I.O.           Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Tracy Lewis
Chair: Wallace P. Mullin, Michigan State University

Information Sharing and Competition in the Motor Vehicle Industry
*Maura P. Doyle, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Christopher M. Snyder, George Washington University
     Discussant: Wallace P. Mullin, Michigan State University

Structural Estimation of Oral Ascending Bid Auctions
*Philip A. Haile, University of Wisconsin-Madison
     Discussant: Matthew Shum, Stanford University

Price Dispersion, Search, and Switching Costs: Evidence from the Credit Card Market
*
Victor Stango, University of Tennessee
     Discussant: Shiferaw Gurmu, University of Virginia

Exchange Rates, Domestic Market Structure and Foreign Trade: The Case of Turkey
*
Benan Zeki Orbay, Istanbul Technical University
Öner Günçavdi, Istanbul Technical University
     Discussant: William J. Polley, University of Iowa

Taxation and Growth           Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Robert Pindyck and Hervé Moulin
Chair: Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon University

Economic Growth, (Re-) Distributive Policies, Capital Mobility and Tax Competition in Open Economies
*Günther Rehme, Technische Universität Darmstadt and European University Institute
     Discussant: Cornelis A. Los, Nanyang Technological University

Time-Consistent Linear Taxation and Redistribution in an Overlapping-Generations Framework
*Thierry Paul, Université de Grenoble II
Philippe Michel, Université de la Méditerranée
     Discussant: Susan K. Snyder, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Growth, Death, and Taxes
*Lutz Hendricks, Arizona State University
     Discussant: Yanni Tournas, Rutgers University

Capital Income Taxation in an Economy with Housing and Business Capital
*Martin Gervais, University of Western Ontario
     Discussant: Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon University

Saturday, June 27, 4:30-6:00
Presidential Address
Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Chair: Marcel Boyer, Université de Montréal

Corporate Governance
*Jean Tirole, Université de Toulouse I

Saturday, June 27, 7:30
Econometric Society Dinner

Hotel Delta, 475 Président-Kennedy Street. Métro station Place-des-Arts, take exit "de Bleury", then turn left on Président-Kennedy Street and the hotel is one block away on your right. The hotel is at 15 minute walking distance from UQAM.


Sunday, June 28, 7:30-8:30

Continental breakfast in the foyer of Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)

Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00

Politics and Electoral Competition           Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-R110)
Organized by Tracy Lewis
Chair: Christopher M. Snyder, George Washington University

Campaign Advertising and Voter Welfare
*
Andrea Prat, Tilburg University
     Discussant: Guillaume Cheikbossian, Columbia University and Warsaw University

A Positive Model of the Permission to Tax in Regional Public Finance
*
Paul Rothstein, Washington University in St. Louis
     Discussant: Eric Hughson, University of Utah

The Control of Public Policy: Electoral Competition, Polarization, and Endogenous Platforms
*
Jakob Svensson, The World Bank
     Discussant: Christopher M. Snyder, George Washington University

Cooperation and Collusion           Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-R120)
Organized by Tracy Lewis and Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Guofu Tan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Narrative Evidence on the Dynamics of Collusion: The Sugar Institute Case
*
Wallace Mullin, Michigan State University
David Genesove, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     Discussant: Philip A. Haile, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Is it Harmful to Allow Partial Cooperation?
*
Pierre Cahuc, Université de Paris 1
Paul Beaudry, University of British Columbia
Hubert Kempf, Université de Paris 1
     Discussant: Susan K. Snyder, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Corruption, Collusion and Implementation: A Hierarchical Design
*Mehmet Bac, Bilkent University
Parimal Kanti Bag, University of Liverpool
     Discussant: Guofu Tan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Demographics           Sunday, June 28, 8:30-9:30 (R-R130)
Organized by Paul M. Romer
Chair: Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, Université de Montréal

Rising Longevity, Unintended Bequests, and Endogenous Growth
*Jie Zhang, Victoria University of Wellington
Junsen Zhang, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Ronald Lee, University of California at Berkeley
     Discussant: Andreas Höfert, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

Life Expectancy and Endogenous Growth
*David De La Croix, Université Catholique de Louvain
Omar Licandro, FEDEA and University Carlos III
     Discussant: Matti Suominen, INSEAD

Rationality           Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-M150)
Organized by Larry Epstein
Chair: Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois and Queen's University

Thought or Reflex
*William Bentley MacLeod, University of Southern California
     Discussant: Costis Skiadas, Northwestern University

Common Knowledge of Rationality in Extensive Games
*Geir Asheim, University of Oslo
M. Dufwenberg, University of Uppsala
     Discussant: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin

Rationalizable Trade
*
Costis Skiadas, Northwestern University
Stephen Morris,
     Discussant: Oscar Volij, Brown University

Mechanism Design           Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-M510)
Organized by Hervé Moulin
Chair: Yves Sprumont, Université de Montréal

Strategy-Proof Allocation of Fixed Costs
*
James A. Dearden, Lehigh University
Karl W. Einolf, Lehigh University
     Discussant: Michel Truchon, Université Laval

Implementation in Principal-Agent Models of Adverse Selection
*
Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon University
Anil Arya, The Ohio State University
Jonathan Glover, Carnegie Mellon University
     Discussant: Lin Zhou, Duke University

Fair Division in Exchange Economies
*
William Thomson, University of Rochester
     Discussant: Tayfun Sonmez, University of Michigan

Price-Setting and Macroeconomics           Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Peter Howitt
Chair: James M. Nason, University of British Columbia

Staggered Price Setting and Endogenous Persistence
*
Paul R. Bergin, University of California at Davis
Robert C. Feenstra, University of California at Davis
     Discussant: Alex Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Does State Dependent Pricing Imply Coordination Failure?
*Alexander L. Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Andrew John, University of Virginia and INSEAD
     Discussant: Ruilin Zhou, University of Pennsylvania and Federal Reserve Board of Minneapolis

Liquidity Effects and Market Frictions
*Guang-Jia Zhang, Bank of Canada
Scott Hendry, Bank of Canada
     Discussant: John Wilbur Coleman, Duke University

Applied Econometrics II           Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-M140)
Organized by Thomas Lemieux
Chair: Daniel Parent, Université de Sherbrooke

Technical Efficiency and Firm Size: Evidence from U.S. Panel Data
*Rajeev Dhawan, University of California at Los Angeles
     Discussant: Denis Bolduc, Université Laval

Sector-Specific On-The-Job Training: Evidence From U.S. Data
*
Lars Vilhuber, Université de Montréal
     Discussant: Christian Belzil, Concordia University

The Role of Unobservables in the Measurement of Wage Effects of Job Mobility: Evidence from Germany and the United States
*
Véronique Simonnet, Université de Paris 1
     Discussant: Daniel Parent, Université de Sherbrooke

Modeling High-Frequency Market Dynamics           Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-R140)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Peter Christoffersen, International Monetary Fund Research Department

Modeling High-Frequency Data in Continuous Time
*
Nour Meddahi, Université de Montréal
Éric Renault, CREST and INSEA
Bas J.M. Werker, CREST
     Discussant: Eric Ghysels, Pennsylvania State University

Trading Volume and the Short and Long-Run Components of Volatility
*
Roman Liesenfeld, Universität Tübingen
     Discussant: Jean-Guy Simonato, HEC - Montréal

Stochastic Volatility Duration Models
*Joanna Jasiak, York University
Eric Ghysels, Pennsylvania State University
Christian Gouriéroux, CREST and CEPREMAP
     Discussant: Peter Christoffersen, International Monetary Fund Research Department

New Empirical Models in Macroeconomics           Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Fallaw Sowell
Chair: Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan

Multifractality of Deutschemark/US Dollar Exchange Rates
*Adlai Fisher, Yale University
Laurent Calvet, Yale University
Benoit Mandelbrot, Yale University
     Discussant: Tim Conley, Northwestern University

A New Approach to the Analysis of Shocks and the Cycle in a Model of Output and Employment
*
Hans-Martin Krolzig, University of Oxford
Juan Torro, European University Institute
     Discussant: John Coleman, Duke University

International Interest Rate Differentials: The Interaction with Fiscal and Monetary Variables and the Business Cycle
*Alain Paquet, Université du Québec à Montréal
Paul Fenton, Bank of Canada
     Discussant: Christine Parlour, Carnegie Mellon University

Sunday, June 28, 10:30-12:00
Walras-Bowley Lecture
Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Chair: Eric Ghysels, Pennsylvania State University

Bulls and Bears
*Adrian Pagan, Australian National University

Sunday, June 28, 12:00-2:00
Standing Committee Working Lunch

Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00

Information and Stock Prices           Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Nour Meddahi, Université de Montréal

Gradual Incorporation of Information into Stock Prices : Empirical Strategies
*
Sara Fisher Ellison, Michigan State University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Wallace P. Mullin, Michigan State University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     Discussant: Thomas H. McCurdy, University of Toronto

External Habit and Cyclicality of Stock Returns
*Harold Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University
Thomas Tallarini Jr., Carnegie Mellon University
     Discussant: René Garcia, Univeraité de Montréal

Timing of Orders, Orders Aggressiveness and the Order Book at the Paris Bourse
*Thierry Kamionka, Université de Toulouse I
Christophe Bisière, Université de Toulouse I
     Discussant: Joanna Jasiak, York University

Trading Volume and Information Revelation in Stock Markets
*Matti Suominen, INSEAD
     Discussant: Nour Meddahi, Université de Montréal

Limited Dependent Models and Semiparametric Estimation II           Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-M140)
Organized by Guido W. Imbens
Chair: Hidehiko Ichimura, University of Pittsburgh

A Semiparametric Error Component Density Estimation Technique for Stochastic Frontier Models
*William Horrace, University of Arizona
     Discussant: Han Hong, Stanford University

New Evidence on Returns to Scale and Product Mix among US Commercial Bank
*
Paul W. Wilson, University of Texas
David C. Wheelock, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
     Discussant: James McIntosh, Concordia University

The Duration of Higher Education: Semiparametric Estimation of a Dependent Competing Risks Model
*Hans Van Ophem, University of Amsterdam
Nicole Jonker, University of Amsterdam
     Discussant: Shiferaw Gurmu, University of Virginia

Efficient Estimation of Censored Duration Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity
*
Paul Rilstone, York University
Peter Bearse, University of Tennessee
José Canals, University of Virginia
     Discussant: Hidehiko Ichimura, University of Pittsburgh

Auctions II           Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-M150)
Organized by Jean-François Richard
Chair: Jean-Pierre Florens, Université de Toulouse I

The Impact of Synergies on Bidding in the Georgia School Milk Market
*Robert C. Marshall, Pennsylvania State University
Matthew E. Raiff, Pennsylvania State University
     Discussant: Leslie Marx, University of Rochester

Conditionally Independent Private Values in OCS Wildcat Auctions
*
Tong Li, Washington State University
Isabelle Perrigne, University of Southern California
Quang Vuong, University of Southern California
     Discussant: Olivier Armantier, University of Pittsburgh

Reinforcement Learning in 2x2 Games and the Concept of Reinforcably Stable Strategies
*
Thomas Brenner, Max-Planck-Institute for Research into Economic Systems
     Discussant: Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Keio University

A Structural Econometric Ascending Auction Model, with an Application to the PCS Spectrum Auctions
*
Matthew Shum, Stanford University
Han Hong, Stanford University
     Discussant: Jacques Robert, Université de Montréal

Distributive Politics           Sunday, June 28, 2:00-3:30 (R-R150)
Organized by Tracy Lewis
Chair: Paul Rothstein, Washington University in St. Louis

Distributive Politics and Representative Democracy
*Guillaume Cheikbossian, Columbia University and Warsaw University
     Discussant: Jakob Svensson, The World Bank

Social Limits to Redistribution
*Giacomo Corneo, University of Bonn
Hans Peter Grüner, University of Bonn
     Discussant: Andrea Prat, Tilburg University

Term Limits and Pork Barrel Politics
*Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois and Queen's University
Eric Hughson, University of Utah
Sangita Dubey, Queen's University
     Discussant: Paul Rothstein, Washington University in St. Louis

Foreign Investment           Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-R130)
Organized by Robert Pindyck
Chair: Richard Barnett, University of Arkansas

Optimal Trade Policy in the Presence of DFI and Internal Tax Competition
*Laurel A. Adams, Northwestern University
Pierre Regibeau, Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona
     Discussant: Raja Kali, Instituto Technologico Autonomo de Mexico

International Project Finance under Lender Heterogeneity
*
Sule Ozler, Koç University
Sumru Altug, Koç University
Hakan Orbay, Koç University
     Discussant: Yutaka Suzuki, Hosei University

Foreign Direct Investment and the Dynamic Effects of Tariff Policy
*William J. Polley, The University of Iowa
     Discussant: Corinne Langinier, University of Clifornia at Berkeley

Relative FDI Incentives - The Principle of Comparative Advantage Once Again
*Larry D. Qiu, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
     Discussant: Michael Devereux, University of British Columbia

Information and Uncertainty           Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-R140)
Organized by Susan Athey
Chair: Chenghu Ma, McGill University

Increased Risk Taking with Multiple Risks
*
Ed Schlee, Arizona State University
Christian Gollier, Université de Toulouse I
     Discussant: Susan Athey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The Value of Information in Monotone Decision Problems
*
Susan Athey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Jonathan Levin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     Discussant: Dirk Bergemann, Yale University

Information Acquisition and Research Differentiation Prior to an Open-Bid Auction
*
Serge Moresi, Georgetown University
     Discussant: Ezra Friedman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The Demand for Sweepstakes
*Guofu Tan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Soo Hong Chew, Hong Kong University and University of California
     Discussant: Christian Gollier, Université de Toulouse I

Axiomatics and Mechanism Design           Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-R120)
Organized by Hervé Moulin
Chair: Hervé Moulin, Duke University

Strategyproof and Implementable Mechanisms for the Provision of a Menu of Public Goods
*Eiichi Miyagawa, University of Rochester
     Discussant: Roberto Serrano, Brown University

Rationalizable Solutions to Pure Population Problems
*Walter Bossert, University of Nottingham
Charles Blackorby, University of British Columbia and GREQAM
David Donaldson, University of British Columbia
     Discussant: Hervé Moulin, Duke University

Recapturing Efficiency in House Allocation with Existing Tenants
*
Tayfun Sonmez, University of Michigan
     Discussant: Yves Sprumont, Université de Montréal

Choquet Bargaining Solutions
*
Lin Zhou, Duke University
     Discussant: Hervé Moulin, Duke University