1998 North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society
Summary of Completed Program |
Wednesday, June 24, 5:00-9:00
Informal gathering in the foyer of Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Thursday, June 25, 7:30-8:30
Continental breakfast in the foyer of Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00
Dynamic Agency Relationships Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Paul Beaudry
Chair: Nabil Al-Najjar, Northwestern University
Shaking the Tree: An Agency-Theoretic Model of Asset Pricing
*Jamsheed Shorish, University of Aarhus
Stephen E. Spear, Carnegie Mellon University
Discussant: Michel Poitevin, Université de Montréal
Dynamic Risk-Sharing Contract with Non-Commitment and Savings
*Karine Gobert, Université de Montréal
Michel Poitevin, Université de Montréal
Discussant: Stephen D. Williamson, University of Iowa
The Dynamics of Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
*Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois at Urbana and Queen's University
Dennis Lu, Queen's University
Discussant: Jacques Lawarrée, University of Washington
Strategic Bargaining Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Daniel F. Spulber
Chair: Gamal Atallah, Industry Canada and Université de Montréal
"Money or Reputation": A Rational Theory of Blackmail
*Mikko Leppämäki, University of Helsinki
Discussant: Joseph E. Harrington Jr., John Hopkins University
Outsiders' Threat or Consecutive Offers: on Shaked and Sutton's Model
*Quan Wen, University of Windsor
Discussant: Joseph E. Harrington Jr., John Hopkins University
Bilateral Bargaining under Non-Verifiable Information
*Anke S. Kessler, University of Bonn
Christoph Lülfesmann, University of Bonn
Discussant: Zvika Neeman, Boston University
Theory Thursday, June 25, 8:30-9:30 (R-R120)
Organized by Paul M. Romer
Chair: Emanuela Cardia, Université de Montréal
Competitive Equilibrium Growth
*David K. Levine, UCLA
Michele Boldrin, University Carlos III de Madrid
Discussant: David De La Croix, Université Catholique de Louvain
Discounting an Uncertain Future
*Christian Gollier, Université de Toulouse I
Discussant: James W. Friedman, Unviersity of North Carolina - Chapel Hill
Policy in an Open Economy Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-M120)
Organized by Peter Howitt and René Garcia
Chair: Dean Corbea, University of Iowa
Growth, Reserve Requirements, and Inflationary Finance in an Open Economy
*Richard C. Barnett, University of Arkansas
Mun S. Ho, Harvard University
Discussant: Pamela Labadie, George Washington University
On the Gains to Monetary Union
*Russel Cooper, Boston University
Hubert Kempf, Université de Paris I
Discussant: Young-sik Kim, University of Iowa and Victoria University of Wellington
On Government Credit Programs
*Marco Espinosa-Vega, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Bruce D. Smith, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Chong K. Yip, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Discussant: Diego Restuccia, University of Minnesota
Issues in Dynamic Equilibrium Models Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-R130)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Jérôme Detemple, McGill University
Equity, Bonds, Growth and Inflation in a Quadratic Infinite Horizon Economy
*Michael Magill, University of Southern California
Martine Quinzii, University of California at Davis
Discussant: Costis Skiadas, Northwestern University
Dynamic Equilibrium with Liquidity Constraints
*Jérôme Detemple, McGill University
Discussant: Frank Riedel, Humblodt University
Imperfect Information Leads to Complete Markets if Dividends are Diffusions
*Frank Riedel, Humboldt University
Discussant: Marcel Rindisbacher, Université de Montréal
Model Selection and Specification Errors Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Jean-Marie Dufour
Chair: Joanna Jasiak, York University
Integral U-Statistics for Nonlinear Test of Independence
*David Mayer-Foulkes, Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas
Discussant: Ramazan Gençay, University of Windsor
The Relative Measurement Error Bias in Nonparametric and OLS Regression: Implications for Specification Tests
*Christopher R. Bollinger, Georgia State University
Discussant: Jeff Racine, University of Southern Florida
Model Selection Criteria in Neural Networks for Financial Time Series Forecasting
*Min Qi, Kent State University
Guoqiang Zhang, Kent State University
Discussant: Ramazan Gençay, University of Windsor
Empirical Game Models Thursday, June 25, 8:30-10:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Jean-François Richard
Chair: Robert C. Marshall, Pennsylvania State University
Identification and Estimation of a Class of Game Theoretic Models
*Jean-Pierre Florens, Université de Toulouse I
Jean-François Richard, University of Pittsburgh
Discussant: Tong Li, Washington State University
Learning in Sender-Receiver Games
*George R. Neumann, University of Iowa
Andreas Blume, University of Iowa
N.E. Savin, University of Iowa
Douglas V. DeJong, University of Iowa and Tilburg University
Discussant: Holger Sieg, Duke University
Estimating a Bargaining Model with Asymmetric Information
Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00
*Holger Sieg, Duke University
Discussant: Rafael Tenorio, University of Notre Dame
Advantage in Timing Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee and Tracy Lewis
Chair: Lambros Pechlivanos, Université de Toulouse I
Term-Limit Legislation as Response to Incumbency Advantage
*Kong-Pin Chen, Academia Sinica
Discussant: Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois and Queen's University
Second-Mover Advantages in Technological Competition
*Heidrun C. Hoppe, Universität Hamburg
Ulrich Lehmann-Grube, Universität Hamburg
Discussant: Carolyn Pitchik, University of Toronto
Rent Shifting and Inefficiencies in Sequential Bilateral Contracting
*Leslie M. Marx, University of Rochester
Greg Shaffer, University of Rochester
Discussant: Sergei Severinov, Stanford University
Rationality in Games Thursday, June 25, 10:30-11:30 (R-R110)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Maxwell Stinchcombe, University of Texas at Austin
Iterated Dominance and the Implications of Commonly Assumed Rationality
*Christian Ewerhart, University of Bonn
Discussant: V. Bhaskar, University of St. Andrews
Conditional Dominance, Rationalizability, and Game Forms
*Makoto Shimoji, University of California at San Diego
Joel Watson, University of California at San Diego
Discussant: Geir Asheim, University of Oslo
General Equilibrium I Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00 (R-R120)
Organized by Larry Epstein
Chair: Alessandro Citanna, Carnegie Mellon University
Tiebout Economies with a Continuum of Traders
*John P. Conley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Myrna Wooders, University of Toronto
Discussant: Marcus Berliant, Washington University
Empirical Consistency of General Equilibrium Models
*Susan K. Snyder, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Discussant: Lin Zhou, Duke University
Capital Income Taxation in an Open Economy: Implications on International Business Cycles and World Welfare
*Sunghyun H. Kim, Brandeis University
Discussant: Alessandro Citanna, Carnegie Mellon University
Internal Labour Markets Thursday, June 25, 10:30-11:30 (R-M160)
Organized by Thomas Lemieux
Chair: Lars Vilhuber, Université de Montréal and York University
Choice of Technology and Labor Market Consequences: Explaining US-Japanese Differences in Management Styles
*Hodaka Morita, Cornell University
Discussant: Lars Vilhuber, Université de Montréal and York University
Strategic Recruiting and the Chain of Command: On the Abuse of Authority in Internal Labor Markets
*Guido Friebel, Stockholm School of Economics
Michael Raith, University of Chicago
Discussant: Pascale Viala, Université de Montréal and EIB
Money and Search Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Peter Howitt
Chair: Pamela Labadie, George Washington University
Rational Credit Fluctuations in a Search Model of Money
*Dean Corbae, University of Iowa
Joseph Ritter, Federal Reserve Bank of St-Louis
Discussant: Jeff Lacker, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Money and the Law of One Price
*Ruilin Zhou, University of Pennsylvania and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Edward J. Green, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Discussant: Stephen Williamson, University of Iowa
Money and Prices in a Multiple-Matching Search Model
*Victor E. Li, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Pennsylvania State University
Derek Laing, Pennsylvania State University
Ping Wang, Pennsylvania State University
Discussant: Shouyong Shi, Quenn's University
Cross Section and Longitudinal Econometrics Thursday, June 25, 10:30-11:30 (R-R130)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen and Fallaw Sowell
Chair: Paul Rilstone, York University
Estimates of the Returns to Scale for U.S. Manufacturing
*Alpay Filiztekin, Koç University
Sumru Altug, Koç University
Discussant: Robert Gagné, HEC - Montréal
Instrument Variable Estimation Based on Mean Absolute Deviation
*Shinichi Sakata, University of Michigan
Discussant: Paul Rilstone, York University
Testing Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Bo Honore and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Allan Würtz, University of Aarhus
Testing Conditional Distributions of Dynamic Models
*Jushan Bai, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Discussant: Marine Carasco, Ohio State University
Bayesian Score Statistics in Linear Models
*Frank Kleibergen, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Richard Paap, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Discussant: Keisuke Hirano, Harvard University
Monte Carlo Tests for Contemporaneous Correlation of Disturbances in Multi-Equation Regression Models
*Lynda Khalaf, Université Laval
Jean-Marie Dufour, Université de Montréal
Discussant: Allan Würtz, University of Aarhus
Advances in Econometrics Thursday, June 25, 10:30-12:00 (R-M120)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: James MacKinnon, Queen's University
A Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Test for Time Series
*Atsushi Inoue, University of Pennsylvania
Discussant: Nour Meddahi, Université de Montréal
Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses
*Tim Vogelsang, Cornell University
Nick Keifer, Cornell University
Helle Bunzel, Cornell University
Discussant: Jean-Marie Dufour, Université de Montréal
Structural Change Tests for Simulated Method of Moments
Thursday, June 25, 2:00-4:00
*Alain Guay, Université du Québec à Montréal
Eric Ghysels, Pennsylvania State University
Discussant: Harold Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University
Computational Economics Thursday, June 25, 2:00-4:00 (R-R120)
Organized by Kenneth Judd
Chair: Martine Quinzii, University of California at Davis
Convergence of Trading Networks: A Simulation Approach
*Ann Maria Bell, Vanderbilt University
Discussant: Max R. Blouin, Brown University
An Empirical Model of Human Strategic Behavior in Economies with Multiple Equilibria
*Ernan Haruvy, University of Texas at Austin
Dale O. Stahl, University of Texas at Austin
Discussant: Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Keio Univeristy
Magic on the Internet: Evidence from Field Experiments on Reserve Prices in Auctions
*David Lucking-Reiley, Vanderbilt University
Discussant: Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology
Computational Playability of Backward Induction Solutions II
*Hidetoshi Tashiro, Hitotsubashi University
Discussant: Thomas Brenner, Max-Planck-Institute for Research into Economic Systems
Contracts I Thursday, June 25, 2:00-3:30 (R-M180)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Tracy Lewis, University of Florida
Contracting with Externalities
*Ilya Segal, University of California at Berkeley
Discussant: Michel Poitevin, Université de Montréal
The Dynamics of Inequality Under Moral Hazard
*Ezra Friedman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Discussant: Karine Gobert, Université de Montréal
Optimal Structure of Agency with Product Complementarity and Substitutability
*Sergei Severinov, Stanford University
Discussant: Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon Univeraity
Auctions I Thursday, June 25, 2:00-4:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Jean-François Richard
Chair: Jean-François Richard, University of Pittsburgh
Independent Private Value Multi-Unit Demand Auctions: An Experiment Comparing Uniform Price and Dynamic Vickrey Auctions
*Dan Levin, Ohio State University
John M. Kagel, University of Pittsburgh
Discussant: Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland
Multiple-Unit Demand Auctions: Theory and Experimental Evidences
*Jacques Robert, Université de Montréal
Marie Corriveau, CIRANO
Claude Montmarquette, Université de Montréal
Discussant: John M. Kagel, University of Pittsburgh
The Optimality of Being Efficient
*Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland
Discussant: Susan Athey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The Effect of the Reservation Price on Revenue and Efficiency in a Multiple-Unit Auction
*Michal Bresky, The Economics Institute of the Academy of Science of the Czech Republic
Discussant: Claude Montmarquette, Université de Montréal
Social Choice Thursday, June 25, 2:00-3:30 (R-R130)
Organized by Hervé Moulin
Chair: Michel Truchon, Université Laval
Income Convergence and Assimilation: The Economics of Mating Taboos
*Linda Wong, University of Iowa
Discussant: Ruqu Wang, Queen's University
On the Structure of Choice under Different External References
*Wulf Gaertner, Universität Osnabrück
Yongsheng Xu, University of Nottingham
Discussant: Walter Bossert, University of Nottingham
Protecting Minorities through Voting Rules
*Alain Trannoy, Université de Cergy-Pontoise
Régis Renault, Université des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse
Discussant: Marcus Berliant, Washington University
Money and Credit Thursday, June 25, 2:00-4:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Peter Howitt
Chair: Derek Laing, Pennsylvania State University
Coalition-Proof Risk Sharing with Private Information and Side Trading
*Jeffrey M. Lacker, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Peter N. Ireland, Rutgers University
Discussant: Dean Corbea, University of Iowa
Liquidity, Interbank Market, and the Role of Central Bank
*Young-sik Kim, The University of Iowa and Victoria University of Wellington
Discussant: Richard Barnett, University of Arkansas
Money, Credit, and Allocation Under Complete Dynamic Contracts and Incomplete Markets
*Stephen D. Williamson, The University of Iowa
S. Rao Aiyagari, University of Rochester
Discussant: Roger D. Lagunoff, Georgetown University
On Aggregate Precautionary Saving: When is the Third Derivative Irrelevant?
*Mark Huggett, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
Sandra Ospina, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
Discussant: Christian Gollier, Université des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse
Nonparametric and Semiparametric Identification and Inference Thursday, June 25, 2:00-3:30 (R-M110)
Organized by Joel Horowitz
Chair: N. Eugene Savin, University of Iowa
Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Dynamic Single Duration Model
*Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago
James Heckman, University of Chicago
Ed Vytlacil, University of Chicago
Discussant: Yuichi Kitamura, University of Minnesota
Edgeworth Approximations for Semiparametric Instrumental Variable Estimators and Test Statistics
*Olivier Linton, Yale University
Discussant: Yuichi Kitamura, University of Minnesota
Nonparametric Estimation of an Additive Model with an Unknown Link Function
*Joel L. Horowitz, University of Iowa
Discussant: Oliver B. Linton, Yale University
Alternative Techniques for Diffusion Estimation Thursday, June 25, 2:00-3:30 (R-M120)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Torben G. Andersen, Northwestern Univeristy
A Simple Bayesian Approach to the Analysis of Markov Diffusion Processes
*Christopher S. Jones, University of Pennsylvania
Discussant: Bjorn Eraker, Norwegian School of Economics
MCMC Analysis of Diffusion Models with Application to Finance
*Bjorn Eraker, Norwegian School of Economics
Discussant: Christopher S. Jones, University of Pennsylvania
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-Form Approach
*Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago
Discussant: Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago
Thursday, June 25, 4:30-6:00
Plenary Session Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Chair: Pierre Lasserre, Université du Québec à Montréal
Economic Growth and Creative Destruction: Recent Developments
Thursday, June 25, 6:15
*Peter Howitt, Ohio State University
Cocktail Design Center Exhibition Hall (DE-R200)
Friday, June 26, 7:30-8:30
Continental breakfast in the foyer of Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Friday, June 26, 8:30-9:30
Asymmetric Information and Public Choice Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Paul Beaudry, University of British Columbia
Pivotal Players and the Characterization of Influence
*Nabil I. Al-Najjar, Northwestern University
Rann Smorodinski, Northwestern University
Discussant: Zvika Neeman, Boston University
Efficiency and Information Aggregation in Auctions with Costly Information
*Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology
Valentina A. Bali, California Institute of Technology
Discussant: Larry Ausubel, University of Maryland
Leadership and Cooperation Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M150)
Organized by Robert Pindyck and Hervé Moulin
Chair: Roger D. Lagunoff, Georgetown University
An Economic Theory of Leadership Turnover
*Carolyn Pitchik, University of Toronto
Maria Gallego, Wilfrid Laurier University
Discussant: Mikko Leppämäki, University of Helsinki
Cooperative or Noncooperative Behavior? A Note to the Testable Implications of Collective Choice Theories
*Yves Sprumont, Université de Montréal
Discussant: Wulf Gaertner, Universität Osnabrück
Endogenous Coalition Formation in Rivalry
*Ruqu Wang, Queen's University
Guofu Tan, University of British Columbia and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Discussant: Sanchul Suh, University of Windsor
Games Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Larry Epstein
Chair: William Bentley MacLeod, University of Southern California
Finitistic Games
*Maxwell Stinchcombe, University of Texas at Austin
Chris Harris, University of California at Los Angeles
Bill Zane, University of California at Los Angeles
Discussant: John Conley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Managing a Reputation
*Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
George Mailath, University of Pennsylvania
Discussant: Leslie M. Marx, University of Rochester
A Theory of Rigid Extremists and Flexible Moderates with an Application to the U.S. Congress
*Joseph E. Harrington Jr., John Hopkins University
S. Brock Blomberg, Wellesley College
Discussant: Sergei Severinov, Stanford University
Industrial Organization Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M510)
Organized by Daniel F. Spulber
Chair: Al Slivinski, University of Western Ontario
Entry Deterrence and Entry Inducement in an Industry with Complementary Products
*Jeong-Yoo Kim, Dongguk University
Discussant: Paul Johnson, Université de Montréal
Underinvestment and Market Structure
*Volker Nocke, London School of Economics
Discussant: Paul Johnson, Université de Montréal
The Informational Value of Sequential Fundraising
*Lise Vesterlund, Iowa State University
Discussant: Pascale Viala, Université de Montréal and EIB
Open Economy Macro Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Peter Howitt
Chair: Richard Barnett, University of Arkansas
Slow North-South Convergence When Labor and Capital are Perfectly Mobile
*Wilbur John Coleman II, Duke University
Francesco Caselli, University of Chicago
Discussant: Jeff Campbell, University of Rochester
Dynamic Collusion, Pricing to Market, and Real Exchange Rates
*Michael Devereux, University of British Columbia
*Roberto Chang, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Discussant: William S. Polley, University of Iowa
Investment and the Current Account in the Short Run and the Long Run
*James M. Nason, University of British Columbia
John H. Rogers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Discussant: Emanuela Cardia, Université de Montréal
Asset Pricing Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-M120)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: René Garcia, Université de Montréal
Asset Prices with Contingent Risk Preferences
*Stephen Gordon, Université Laval
Pascal St-Amour, Université Laval
Discussant: Simon van Norden, HEC - Montréal
Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities with Neural Networks and a Homogeneity Hint
*Ramazan Gençay, Bilkent University
René Garcia, Université de Montréal
Discussant: Min Qi, Kent State University
Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle?
*Charles H. Whiteman, University of Iowa
Christopher Otrok, University of Iowa
B. Ravikumar, University of Iowa
Discussant: René Garcia, Université de Montréal
Regression and Time Series Friday, June 26, 8:30-10:00 (R-R130)
Organized by Jean-Marie Dufour
Chair: Lynda Khalaf, Université Laval
Bias and Mean Squared Error of Least Squares Estimators in Dynamic Regression Models with a Unit Root
*Jan F. Kiviet, University of Amsterdam
Garry D.A. Phillips, University of Exeter
Discussant: N. Eugene Savin, University of Iowa
Estimation in Multivariate Time Series Regression Models with Elliptically Symmetric Errors
*Douglas J. Hodgson, University of Rochester
Oliver B. Linton, Yale University
Eugene Choo, Yale University
Discussant: Guido M. Kuersteiner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Robust Wald Tests in Sur Systems with Adding Up Restrictions: An Algebraic Approach to Proofs of Invariance
*Surajit Ray, University of Iowa
B. Ravikumar, University of Iowa
N. Eugene Savin, University of Iowa
Discussant: Lynda Khalaf, Université Laval
Search and Employment Friday, June 26, 8:30-9:30 (R-R150)
Organized by Paul Beaudry and Thomas Lemieux
Chair: Pierre Cahuc, Université de Paris I
Job Search and Firm Size Distribution Effects on Wages: Theory and Evidence
*Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Keio University
Henrich R. Greve, University of Tsukuba
Discussant: Marc Van Audenrode, Université Laval
Product Market and the Size Wage Differential
Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00
*Shouyong Shi, Queen's University
Discussant: Jean Fares, Banque du Canada
Contracts II Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M150)
Organized by Daniel F. Spulber
Chair: Nabil Al-Najjar, Northwestern University
Double Moral Hazard and Multi-Dimensional Signaling in Principal-Agent Contract Negotiations: A Study of the National Football League
*Mike Conlin, Cornell University
Patrick Emerson, Cornell University
Dennis Wilson, University of Kentucky
Discussant: Patrick González, Université Laval
Over-Compensation as a Partial Solution to Commitment and Renegotiation Problems: The Case of Ex-Post Moral Hazard
*Martin Boyer, HEC - Montréal
Discussant: Thomas Palfrey, California Institute of Technology
Strategy-Proof Solutions in a Permit Sharing Problem
*Sangchul Suh, University of Windsor
Discussant: Guido Friebel, Stockholm School of Economics
Financial Difficulties Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Paul Beaudry
Chair: James M. Nason, University of British Columbia
A Model of Financial Fragility
*Roger D. Lagunoff, Georgetown University
Stacey L. Schreft, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Discussant: Jeffrey M. Lacker, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Financial Constraints, Cost of Capital and Net Worth
*Pamela Labadie, George Washington University
Discussant: Dean Corbae, University of Iowa
Wage Concessions and Debt Forgiveness as Strategic Responses to Financial Distress
*Pascale Viala, Université de Montréal and EIB
David N. Margolis, Université de Paris I
Discussant: Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois and Queen's University
Investment Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Hervé Moulin
Chair: Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology
Technology Choice under Uncertainty on the Demand
*Corinne Chaton, Université de Toulouse I
Discussant: Alain Trannoy, Université de Cergy-Pontoise
Capital Accumulation through "Controlled Competitions": Two Stage Tournaments as a Strategy for Firm Growth
*Yutaka Suzuki, Hosei University
Discussant: Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, École Polytechnique de Montréal
Designing Optimal Patents
*Corinne Langinier, University of California at Berkeley
Discussant: Leslie Marx, University of Rochester
Coordination and Collusion Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Daniel F. Spulber and Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: James W. Friedman, University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill
Semicollusion in the Norwegian Cement Market
*Frode Steen, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
Lars Sorgard, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
Discussant: Al Slivinski, University of Western Ontario
Consumption Externalities, Coordination and Advertising
*Ivan Pastine, Bilkent University
Tuvana Pastine, Bilkent University
Discussant: Al Slivinski, University of Western Ontario
Collusion in a Model of Repeated Auctions
*Paul Johnson, Université de Montréal
Jacques Robert, Université de Montréal
Discussant: Yongmin Chen, University of Colorado at Boulder
Local Public Goods Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M510)
Organized by Hervé Moulin
Chair: John Conley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Local Public Goods and Clubs: A Unified Theory of First Best
*Marcus Berliant, Washington University
John H.Y. Edwards, Tulane University
Discussant: Oscar Volij, Brown University
Fiscal Externalities
*Andrew D. Austin, University of Houston
Discussant: Robert J. Gary-Bobo, Université de Cergy-Pontoise
Tiebout and Redistribution in a Model of Residential and Political Choice
*Christoph Lülfesmann, University of Bonn
Anke S. Kessler, University of Bonn
Discussant: John Conley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
General Equilibrium II Friday, June 26, 10:30-11:30 (R-R130)
Organized by Larry Epstein
Chair: Shouyong Shi, Queen's University
Measurement Error in General Equilibrium: The Aggregate Effects of Noisy Economic Indicators
*Antulio N. Bomfim, Federal Reserve Board
Discussant: Alok Johri, McMaster University
Walrasian Allocations without Price-Taking Behavior
*Roberto Serrano, Brown University
Oscar Volij, Brown University
Discussant: Maxwell Stinchcombe, University of Texas at Austin
Applied Econometrics I Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-M120)
Organized by Guido W. Imbens
Chair: Paul Rilstone, York University
Nonparametric Estimation of Competing Risks Models with Applications
*Shiferaw Gurmu, University of Virginia
José Canals, University of Virginia
Discussant: Hans van Ophem, University of Amsterdam
Instrumental Variables Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects
*Josh Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Alberto Abadie,
Guido W. Imbens, University of California at Los Angeles
Discussant: Phil Merrigan, Université du Québec à Montréal
2-Step Estimation of Semiparametric Censored Regression Models
*Shakeeb Khan, University of Virginia
James L. Powell, University of California at Berkeley
Discussant: Paul Rilstone, York University
Forecasting Friday, June 26, 10:30-12:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Bryan Campbell, Concordia University
Unit Roots and Forecasting: To Difference or Not to Difference?
*Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan
Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania
Discussant: Tim Vogelsang, Cornell University
Content Horizons for Time Series Economic Forecasts
*John W. Galbraith, McGill University
Discussant: Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan
Using Information Criteria to Draw Inference on Existence of Unit Roots and Cointegration
*Chor-yiu Sin, City University of Hong Kong
Discussant: John W. Galbraith, McGill University
Friday, June 26, 12:00-2:00
Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00
Program Committee Lunch
Intermediation and Asymmetric Information Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Daniel F. Spulber, Dilip Mookherjee and Tracy Lewis
Chair: Daniel F. Spulber, Northwestern University
Adverse Selection with Competitive Inspection
*James W. Friedman, University of North Carolina
Gary Biglaiser, FCC and University of North Carolina
Discussant: Ruqu Wang, Queen's University
Strategic Behavior and Price Discovery
*Luis Angel Medrano, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Xavier Vives, Institut d'Analisi Economica CSIC
Discussant: Quan Wen, University of Windsor
Positive Information Rents with Correlated Information
*Zvika Neeman, Boston University
Discussant: Quan Wen, University of Windsor
The Effect of Information on the Well-Being of the Uninformed: What's the Chance of Getting a Decent Meal in an Unfamiliar City?
*James Albrecht, Georgetown University
Harald Lang, Royal Institute of Technology
Susan Vroman, Georgetown University
Discussant: Anke S. Kessler, University of Bonn
Property Rights and Incomplete Contracts Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M150)
Organized by Susan Athey
Chair: Joanne Roberts, Queen's University
Property Rights and Incomplete Contracts: Dealing with Nuisance
*Christopher M. Snyder, George Washington University
Rohan Pitchford, Australian National University
Discussant: Ilya Segal, University of California at Berkeley
Joint Ventures and Stock Markets as Commitment Devices
*Tridib Sharma, Instituto Technologico Autonomo de Mexico
Discussant: Shira B. Lewin, Iowa State University
Bargaining Power, Outside Options and the Boundaries of the Firm
*Yanni Tournas, Rutgers University
Rudolf Kerschbamer, University of Vienna
Discussant: Christopher M. Snyder, George Washington University
The Allocation of Ownership Rights in the Presence of Non-Cooperative Bargaining
*Ayse Mumcu, Bilkent University
Discussant: Patrick González, Université Laval
Agency Problems Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Susan Athey
Chair: Pascale Viala, Université de Montréal and EIB
Dynamic Common Agency
*Dirk Bergemann, Yale University
Juuso Valimaki, Northwestern University
Discussant: Jacques Robert, Université de Montréal
Ex-Post Choice of Monitoring
*Jacques Lawarrée, University of Washington
Fahad Khalil, University of Washington
Discussant: Martin Boyer, HEC - Montréal
Restoring Higher-Powered Incentives through Audits
*Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, École Polytechnique de Montréal
Discussant: Lambros Pechlivanos, Université de Toulouse I
Why Promotions
*Régis Renault, Université de Toulouse I
Emmanuelle Auriol, Université d'Aix-Marseille II
Discussant: Hakan Orbay, Koç University
Economies with Asymmetric Information Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M510)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Moral Hazard and Non-Exclusive Contracts
*Danilo Guaitoli, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Alberto Bisin, New York University
Discussant: Jamsheed Shorish, University of Aarhus
A Decentralized Market with Common Values Uncertainty: Non-Steady States
*Max R. Blouin, Brown University
Roberto Serrano, Brown University
Discussant: Martine Quinzii, University of California at Davis
Communication, Credible Improvements and the Core of an Economy with Asymmetric Information
*Oscar Volij, Brown University
Discussant: Michael Magill, University of Southern California
Competitive Equilibrium with Moral Hazard in Economies with Multiple Commodities
*Alessandro Citanna, Carnegie Mellon University
Antonio Villanacci, Università di Firenze
Discussant: John P. Conley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Business Cycles and Money Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M120)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Angelo Melino, University of Toronto
Aggregate Employment, Real Business Cycles, and Superior Information
*Michel Normandin, Université du Québec à Montréal
Martin Boileau, University of Toronto
Discussant: Timothy Cogley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Learning by Doing and Aggregate Fluctuations
*Alok Johri, McMaster University
R. Cooper, Boston University
Discussant: Michel Normandin, Université du Québec à Montréal
Variability in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity
*Ka-fu Wong, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Discussant: Bryan Campbell, Concordia University
Uncovering Financial Market Beliefs about Inflation Targets
*Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, Université de Montréal
Discussant: Angelo Melino, University of Toronto
Labour Market Flows and Unemployment Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-R130)
Organized by Thomas Lemieux and Guido W. Imbens
Chair: Nicole Fortin, Université de Montréal
Job Protection Laws and Jobs: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
*Marc Van Audenrode, Université Laval
Jimmy Royer, Université Laval
Discussant: Lars Vilhuber, Université de Montréal and York University
Search Unemployment with Advance Notice
*Pietro Garibaldi, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Shouyoung Shi, Queen's University
Technology Choice and Employment Dynamics at Young and Old Plants
*Jeffrey R. Campbell, University of Rochester
Jonas D.M. Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and University of Western Ontario
Discussant: Curtis Eberwein, McGill University
Hours Equations, IV Estimation and Nonlinear Measurement Error
*Norman K. Thurston, Brigham Young University
Karl N. Snow, Brigham Young University
Discussant: George Neumann, University of Iowa
Nonstationary Multivariate and Panel Models Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Jean Mercenier, Université de Montréal
Nonstationary Index Models
*Yoosoon Chang, Rice University
Joon Y. Park, Seoul National University
Discussant: Benoit Perron, Université de Montréal
Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles
*Alain Hecq, University Maastricht
Franz C. Palm, University Maastricht
Jean-Pierre Urbain, University Maastricht
Discussant: Jacques Raynauld, HEC - Montréal
Frequency Domain Inference for Impulse Responses
*Jonathan Wright, University of Virginia
Discussant: Lynda Khalaf, Université Laval
On the Role of Human Capital in Growth Models: Evidence from a Nonstationary Panel of Developing Countries
*Peter Pedroni, Indiana University
Discussant: Jean Mercenier, Université de Montréal
Estimation and Testing of Econometric Models I Friday, June 26, 2:00-4:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Fallaw Sowell
Chair: Douglas Hodgson, University of Rochester
An Extended Yule-Walker Method for Estimating a Vector Autoregressive Model with Mixed-Frequency Data
*Peter A. Zadrozny, Congressional Budget Office
Baoline Chen, Rutgers University - Camden
Discussant: Harold Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University
Testing for Serial Correlation of Unknown Form Using Wavelet Methods
*Jin Lee, Cornell University
Yongmiao Hong, Cornell University
Discussant: Aris Spanos, Cornell University
Multiple Vector Autoregressions and Impulse Response Analysis
*André J. Hoogstrate, Tilburg University
Discussant: Alain Paquet, Université du Québec à Montréal
Shape-Preserving Estimation of Diffusions
*Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago
Lars Hansen, University of Chicago
Jose Scheinkman, University of Chicago
Discussant: Éric Renault, CREST and INSEA
Friday, June 26, 4:30-6:00
Plenary Session Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Chair: Torben G. Andersen, Northwestern university
Risk and Robustness in General Equilibrium
Friday, June 26, 6:15
*Lars Hansen, University of Chicago
Cocktail Design Center Exhibition Hall (DE-R200)
Saturday, June 27, 7:30-8:30
Continental breakfast in the foyer of Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00
Contracting and Information Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Tracy Lewis
Chair: Tracy Lewis, University of Florida
Limited Attention and Incomplete Contracts
*Sharon Gifford, Rutgers University
Discussant: Huseyin Yildirim, University of Florida
Specific Investment, Commitment and Observability
*Patrick González, Université Laval
Discussant: Ruqu Wang, Queen's University
Strategic Bidding by Potential Competitors: Will Monopoly Persist?
*Yongmin Chen, University of Colorado at Boulder
Discussant: Tracy Lewis, University of Florida
Cooperation in Repeated Games with Moral Hazard Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-R130)
Organized by Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Jacques Robert, Université de Montréal
Moral Hazard and Private Monitoring
*V. Bhaskar, University of St. Andrews
Eric van Damme, Tilburg University
Discussant: Nabil Al-Najjar, Northwestern University
Discounted Repeated Games with Imperfect Private Monitoring
*Massimiliano Amarante, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Discussant: Stefan Ambec, Université de Montréal
Teamwork Management: Optimal Incentive Contracts and Optimal Team Size in an Era of Diminishing Commitment
*Lambros Pechlivanos, Université de Toulouse I
Emmanuelle Auriol, Université de Toulouse I
Guido Friebel, Stockholm School of Economics
Discussant: Fahad Khalil, University of Washington
Science and Technology Policy Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-R140)
Organized by Paul M. Romer
Chair: Timothy Cogley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Can Government-Industry R&D Programs Increase Private R&D? The Case of the Small Business Innovation Research Program
*Scott J. Wallsten, Stanford University
Discussant: Lutz Hendricks, Arizona State University
The Impact of Federally Funded Basic Research on Industrial Innovation: Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry
*Andrew A. Toole, Stanforc University
Discussant: Paul Beaudry, University of British Columbia
Three Ways of Improving Growth and (Maybe) Welfare in a Model of Endogenous Technological Change
*Andreas Höfert, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Discussant: Timothy Cogley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Topics in Development Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-M510)
Organized by Paul M. Romer
Chair: Joanne Roberts, Queen's University
Spatial Patterns in Labor Markets: Malaysian Development
*Timothy G. Conley, Northwestern University
Frederick Flyer, New York University
Grace Tsiang, University of Chicago
Discussant: Anne Beeson Royalty, Stanford University
Technology Adoption and Schooling: Amplifier Income Effects of Policies Across Countries
*Diego Restuccia, University of Minnesota
Discussant: Hugo Benitez-Silva, Yale University
Endogenous Business Networks
*Raja Kali, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
Discussant: Joanne Roberts, Queen's University
Manufacturing Firms and Aggregate Outcomes Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Paul Beaudry
Chair: David De La Croix, Université Catholique de Louvain
A Deeper Look at Job Destruction: Matching Theories and Evidence
*Scott Schuh, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Robert Triest, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Discussant: Sumru Altug, Koç University
Labor Productivity in U.S. Manufacturing: Does Sectoral Comovement Reflect Technology Shocks?
*Michael T. Kiley, Federal Reserve Board
Discussant: Russell Cooper, Boston University
Does Total Factor Productivity Fall after the Adoption of New Technology?
*Sandra Ospina, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
Mark Huggett, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
Discussant: Rajeev Dhawan, University of California at Los Angeles
Structural Change and Nonlinear Models Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Jean-Marie Dufour
Chair: Jan Kiviet, University of Amsterdam
Linear Covariance Matrix Lower Bounds for Time Series Estimators
*Guido M. Kuersteiner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Discussant: Douglas J. Hodgson, University of Rochester
Stochastic Permanent Breaks
*Aaron D. Smith, University of California at San Diego
Robert F. Engle, University of California at San Diego
Discussant: Valentina Corradi, University of Pennsylvania
A Simple Almost Sure Rule for Detecting Multiple Structural Breaks
*Filippo Altissimo, Bank of Italy
Valentina Corradi, University of Pennsylvania
Discussant: Tim Vogelsang, Cornell University
New Developments in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics Saturday, June 27, 8:30-10:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Joel Horowitz
Chair: Paul Rilstone, York University
Nonregular Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Auction, Job Search and Production Frontier Models
*Han Hong, Stanford University
Discussant: Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago
The Effect of Nuisance Parameters on Size and Power: LM Tests in Logit Models
*Allan Würtz, University of Aarhus
Gene Savin, University of Iowa
Discussant: Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago
Causal Inference in Encouragement Designs with Covariates
*Keisuke Hirano, Harvard University
Guido Imbens, University of California at Los Angeles
Xiao-Hua Zhou, Indiana University
Donald B. Rubin, Harvard University
Discussant: Paul Rilstone, York University
Saturday, June 27, 10:30-12:00
Plenary Session Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Chair: Jean-Marie Dufour, Université de Montréal
Random Priority: A Probabilistic Resolution of the Tragedy of the Commons
Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00
*Hervé Moulin, Duke University
Limited Dependent Models and Semiparametric Estimation I Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-R110)
Organized by Guido W. Imbens
Chair: Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, New York University
Estimating Derivatives in Nonseparable Models with Limited Dependent Variables
*Hidehiko Ichimura, University of Pittsburgh
Joseph G. Altonji, Northwestern University
Discussant: Shekeeb Khan, University of Virginia
An Empirical Likelihood Approach to Conditional Moment Restriction Models
*Yuichi Kitamura, University of Minnesota
Hyungtaik Ahn, Korea Information Society Development Institute
Discussant: Keisuke Hirano, Harvard University
Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference
*Jeff Racine, University of South Florida
Chunrong Ai, University of Florida
Discussant: William Horrace, University of Arizona
Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Quasi-Experimental Regression-Discontinuity Design
*Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, New York University
Jinyong Hahn, University of Pennsylvania
Petra Todd, University of Pennsylvania
Discussant: Joshua Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Estimation and Testing of Econometric Models II Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-R120)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, Eric Ghysels and Fallaw Sowell
Chair: Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago
A Frequency Decomposition of Approximation Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models
*Timothy Cogley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Discussant: Éric Renault, CREST and INSEA
Statistical Adequacy and the Testing of Trend Versus Difference Stationarity
*Aris Spanos, University of Cyprus
Elena C. Andreou, University of Manchester
Discussant: Peter Zadrozny, Congressional Budget Office
Specification Tests in the Efficient Method of Moments Framework with Application to the Stochastic Volatility Models
*Harold H. Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University
Ming Liu, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Discussant: Valentina Corradi, University of Pennsylvania
Calibration of Structural Models by Indirect Inference
*Éric Renault, CREST and INSEA
Laurence Broze, CORE and Université de Lille 3
Ramdan Dridi, Université de Toulouse I
Discussant: Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago
Panel Data Saturday, June 27, 2:00-3:30 (R-R130)
Organized by Bo Honore
Chair: Shakeeb Khan, University of Virginia
Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions with AR(1) Disturbances
*Badi H. Baltagi, Texas A&M University
Ping X. Wu, University of Melbourne
Discussant: Shakeeb Khan, University of Virginia
Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data
*Chihwa Kao, Syracuse University
Discussant: Guido Kuersteiner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Does Stockholding Provide Perfect Risk Sharing?
*Muhammet Fatih Guvenen, Carnegie Mellon University
Discussant: Shakeeb Khan, University of Virginia
Capital Markets Saturday, June 27, 2:00-3:30 (R-R140)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Bo Honore
Chair: Stephen Gordon, Université Laval
Capital Markets and the Evolution of Family Businesses
*B. Ravikumar, University of Iowa
Utpal Bhattacharya, Indiana University
Discussant: Christian Gollier, Université de Toulouse I
American Option Pricing under GARCH by a Markov Chain Approximation
*Jean-Guy Simonato, HEC - Montréal
Jin-Chuan Duan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Discussant: Peter Christoffersen, International Monetary Fund Research Department
Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns
*Thomas H. McCurdy, University of Toronto
John M. Maheu, Queen's University
Discussant: Stephen Gordon, Université Laval
Business Cycles and Monetary Rules Saturday, June 27, 2:00-3:30 (R-M510)
Organized by René Garcia and Peter Howitt
Chair: Paul R. Bergin, University of California at Davis
The Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules to Model Uncertainty
*John C. Williams, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Andrew Levin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Volker Wieland, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Discussant: Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, Université de Montréal
Non-Steady State Equilibrium in a Random Matching Monetary Model: A Dynamical Systems Approach
*Ted Temzelides, University of Iowa
Hector Lomeli, University of Colorado
Discussant: Steve Ambler, Université du Québec à Montréal
Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy
*Zheng Liu, Clark University
Discussant: James M. Nason, University of British Columbia
Empirical Labour Economics Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-M110)
Organized by Thomas Lemieux
Chair: Thomas Lemieux, Université de Montréal
A Discrete Choice Estimator of Workers' Valuation of Fringe Benefits
*Anne Beeson Royalty, Stanford University
Discussant: Jorgen Hansen, Concordia University
Examining the Link Between Wages and Quality in the Teacher Workforce: The Role of Alternative Labor Market Opportunities and Non-Pecuniary Variation
*Marianne E. Page, University of California at Davis
Susanna Loeb, University of Michigan
Discussant: Kelly Bedard, McMaster University
An Empirical Analysis of the Social Security Disability Application, Appeal, and Award Process
*Hugo Benitez-Silva, Yale University
John Rust, Yale University
Hiu-Man Chan, Yale University
Sofia Sheidvasser, Yale University
Moshe Buchinsky, Brown University
Discussant: Phil Merrigan, Université du Québec à Montréal
Subjective Discount Rates, Unobserved Ability, Family Background and the Return to Schooling
*Christian Belzil, Concordia University
Jörgen Hansen, Université de Montréal and Göteborg University
Discussant: Phil Merrigan, Université du Québec à Montréal
Communication, Contracting, and Institutional Design Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Susan Athey and Hervé Moulin
Chair: Lin Zhou, Duke University
Autonomy, Contractibility, and the Franchise Relationship
*Shira B. Lewin, Iowa State University
Discussant: Régis Renault, Université des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse
Cost Reducing Strategies
*Pau Olivella, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Maite Pastor, Centro de Estudios Universitarios San Pablo
Discussant: Yongmin Chen, University of Colorado at Boulder
Plea Bargaining and "Truth-Telling"
*Joanne Roberts, Queen's University
Discussant: Guofu Tan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
A Model of Expertise
*John Morgan, Princeton University
Vijay Krishna,
Discussant: Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, École Polytechnique
Empirical Investigations in I.O. Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-M160)
Organized by Tracy Lewis
Chair: Wallace P. Mullin, Michigan State University
Information Sharing and Competition in the Motor Vehicle Industry
*Maura P. Doyle, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Christopher M. Snyder, George Washington University
Discussant: Wallace P. Mullin, Michigan State University
Structural Estimation of Oral Ascending Bid Auctions
*Philip A. Haile, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Discussant: Matthew Shum, Stanford University
Price Dispersion, Search, and Switching Costs: Evidence from the Credit Card Market
*Victor Stango, University of Tennessee
Discussant: Shiferaw Gurmu, University of Virginia
Exchange Rates, Domestic Market Structure and Foreign Trade: The Case of Turkey
*Benan Zeki Orbay, Istanbul Technical University
Öner Günçavdi, Istanbul Technical University
Discussant: William J. Polley, University of Iowa
Taxation and Growth Saturday, June 27, 2:00-4:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Robert Pindyck and Hervé Moulin
Chair: Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon University
Economic Growth, (Re-) Distributive Policies, Capital Mobility and Tax Competition in Open Economies
*Günther Rehme, Technische Universität Darmstadt and European University Institute
Discussant: Cornelis A. Los, Nanyang Technological University
Time-Consistent Linear Taxation and Redistribution in an Overlapping-Generations Framework
*Thierry Paul, Université de Grenoble II
Philippe Michel, Université de la Méditerranée
Discussant: Susan K. Snyder, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Growth, Death, and Taxes
*Lutz Hendricks, Arizona State University
Discussant: Yanni Tournas, Rutgers University
Capital Income Taxation in an Economy with Housing and Business Capital
*Martin Gervais, University of Western Ontario
Discussant: Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon University
Saturday, June 27, 4:30-6:00
Presidential Address Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Chair: Marcel Boyer, Université de Montréal
Corporate Governance
*Jean Tirole, Université de Toulouse I
Saturday, June 27, 7:30
Econometric Society Dinner
Hotel Delta, 475 Président-Kennedy Street. Métro station Place-des-Arts, take exit "de Bleury", then turn left on Président-Kennedy Street and the hotel is one block away on your right. The hotel is at 15 minute walking distance from UQAM.
Sunday, June 28, 7:30-8:30
Continental breakfast in the foyer of Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00
Politics and Electoral Competition Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-R110)
Organized by Tracy Lewis
Chair: Christopher M. Snyder, George Washington University
Campaign Advertising and Voter Welfare
*Andrea Prat, Tilburg University
Discussant: Guillaume Cheikbossian, Columbia University and Warsaw University
A Positive Model of the Permission to Tax in Regional Public Finance
*Paul Rothstein, Washington University in St. Louis
Discussant: Eric Hughson, University of Utah
The Control of Public Policy: Electoral Competition, Polarization, and Endogenous Platforms
*Jakob Svensson, The World Bank
Discussant: Christopher M. Snyder, George Washington University
Cooperation and Collusion Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-R120)
Organized by Tracy Lewis and Dilip Mookherjee
Chair: Guofu Tan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Narrative Evidence on the Dynamics of Collusion: The Sugar Institute Case
*Wallace Mullin, Michigan State University
David Genesove, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Discussant: Philip A. Haile, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Is it Harmful to Allow Partial Cooperation?
*Pierre Cahuc, Université de Paris 1
Paul Beaudry, University of British Columbia
Hubert Kempf, Université de Paris 1
Discussant: Susan K. Snyder, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Corruption, Collusion and Implementation: A Hierarchical Design
*Mehmet Bac, Bilkent University
Parimal Kanti Bag, University of Liverpool
Discussant: Guofu Tan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Demographics Sunday, June 28, 8:30-9:30 (R-R130)
Organized by Paul M. Romer
Chair: Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, Université de Montréal
Rising Longevity, Unintended Bequests, and Endogenous Growth
*Jie Zhang, Victoria University of Wellington
Junsen Zhang, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Ronald Lee, University of California at Berkeley
Discussant: Andreas Höfert, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Life Expectancy and Endogenous Growth
*David De La Croix, Université Catholique de Louvain
Omar Licandro, FEDEA and University Carlos III
Discussant: Matti Suominen, INSEAD
Rationality Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-M150)
Organized by Larry Epstein
Chair: Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois and Queen's University
Thought or Reflex
*William Bentley MacLeod, University of Southern California
Discussant: Costis Skiadas, Northwestern University
Common Knowledge of Rationality in Extensive Games
*Geir Asheim, University of Oslo
M. Dufwenberg, University of Uppsala
Discussant: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin
Rationalizable Trade
*Costis Skiadas, Northwestern University
Stephen Morris,
Discussant: Oscar Volij, Brown University
Mechanism Design Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-M510)
Organized by Hervé Moulin
Chair: Yves Sprumont, Université de Montréal
Strategy-Proof Allocation of Fixed Costs
*James A. Dearden, Lehigh University
Karl W. Einolf, Lehigh University
Discussant: Michel Truchon, Université Laval
Implementation in Principal-Agent Models of Adverse Selection
*Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon University
Anil Arya, The Ohio State University
Jonathan Glover, Carnegie Mellon University
Discussant: Lin Zhou, Duke University
Fair Division in Exchange Economies
*William Thomson, University of Rochester
Discussant: Tayfun Sonmez, University of Michigan
Price-Setting and Macroeconomics Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-R150)
Organized by Peter Howitt
Chair: James M. Nason, University of British Columbia
Staggered Price Setting and Endogenous Persistence
*Paul R. Bergin, University of California at Davis
Robert C. Feenstra, University of California at Davis
Discussant: Alex Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Does State Dependent Pricing Imply Coordination Failure?
*Alexander L. Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Andrew John, University of Virginia and INSEAD
Discussant: Ruilin Zhou, University of Pennsylvania and Federal Reserve Board of Minneapolis
Liquidity Effects and Market Frictions
*Guang-Jia Zhang, Bank of Canada
Scott Hendry, Bank of Canada
Discussant: John Wilbur Coleman, Duke University
Applied Econometrics II Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-M140)
Organized by Thomas Lemieux
Chair: Daniel Parent, Université de Sherbrooke
Technical Efficiency and Firm Size: Evidence from U.S. Panel Data
*Rajeev Dhawan, University of California at Los Angeles
Discussant: Denis Bolduc, Université Laval
Sector-Specific On-The-Job Training: Evidence From U.S. Data
*Lars Vilhuber, Université de Montréal
Discussant: Christian Belzil, Concordia University
The Role of Unobservables in the Measurement of Wage Effects of Job Mobility: Evidence from Germany and the United States
*Véronique Simonnet, Université de Paris 1
Discussant: Daniel Parent, Université de Sherbrooke
Modeling High-Frequency Market Dynamics Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-R140)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Peter Christoffersen, International Monetary Fund Research Department
Modeling High-Frequency Data in Continuous Time
*Nour Meddahi, Université de Montréal
Éric Renault, CREST and INSEA
Bas J.M. Werker, CREST
Discussant: Eric Ghysels, Pennsylvania State University
Trading Volume and the Short and Long-Run Components of Volatility
*Roman Liesenfeld, Universität Tübingen
Discussant: Jean-Guy Simonato, HEC - Montréal
Stochastic Volatility Duration Models
*Joanna Jasiak, York University
Eric Ghysels, Pennsylvania State University
Christian Gouriéroux, CREST and CEPREMAP
Discussant: Peter Christoffersen, International Monetary Fund Research Department
New Empirical Models in Macroeconomics Sunday, June 28, 8:30-10:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Fallaw Sowell
Chair: Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan
Multifractality of Deutschemark/US Dollar Exchange Rates
*Adlai Fisher, Yale University
Laurent Calvet, Yale University
Benoit Mandelbrot, Yale University
Discussant: Tim Conley, Northwestern University
A New Approach to the Analysis of Shocks and the Cycle in a Model of Output and Employment
*Hans-Martin Krolzig, University of Oxford
Juan Torro, European University Institute
Discussant: John Coleman, Duke University
International Interest Rate Differentials: The Interaction with Fiscal and Monetary Variables and the Business Cycle
*Alain Paquet, Université du Québec à Montréal
Paul Fenton, Bank of Canada
Discussant: Christine Parlour, Carnegie Mellon University
Sunday, June 28, 10:30-12:00
Walras-Bowley Lecture Marie-Gérin-Lajoie Hall (J-M400)
Chair: Eric Ghysels, Pennsylvania State University
Bulls and Bears
*Adrian Pagan, Australian National University
Sunday, June 28, 12:00-2:00
Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00
Standing Committee Working Lunch
Information and Stock Prices Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-M180)
Organized by Torben G. Andersen, René Garcia and Eric Ghysels
Chair: Nour Meddahi, Université de Montréal
Gradual Incorporation of Information into Stock Prices : Empirical Strategies
*Sara Fisher Ellison, Michigan State University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Wallace P. Mullin, Michigan State University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Discussant: Thomas H. McCurdy, University of Toronto
External Habit and Cyclicality of Stock Returns
*Harold Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University
Thomas Tallarini Jr., Carnegie Mellon University
Discussant: René Garcia, Univeraité de Montréal
Timing of Orders, Orders Aggressiveness and the Order Book at the Paris Bourse
*Thierry Kamionka, Université de Toulouse I
Christophe Bisière, Université de Toulouse I
Discussant: Joanna Jasiak, York University
Trading Volume and Information Revelation in Stock Markets
*Matti Suominen, INSEAD
Discussant: Nour Meddahi, Université de Montréal
Limited Dependent Models and Semiparametric Estimation II Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-M140)
Organized by Guido W. Imbens
Chair: Hidehiko Ichimura, University of Pittsburgh
A Semiparametric Error Component Density Estimation Technique for Stochastic Frontier Models
*William Horrace, University of Arizona
Discussant: Han Hong, Stanford University
New Evidence on Returns to Scale and Product Mix among US Commercial Bank
*Paul W. Wilson, University of Texas
David C. Wheelock, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Discussant: James McIntosh, Concordia University
The Duration of Higher Education: Semiparametric Estimation of a Dependent Competing Risks Model
*Hans Van Ophem, University of Amsterdam
Nicole Jonker, University of Amsterdam
Discussant: Shiferaw Gurmu, University of Virginia
Efficient Estimation of Censored Duration Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity
*Paul Rilstone, York University
Peter Bearse, University of Tennessee
José Canals, University of Virginia
Discussant: Hidehiko Ichimura, University of Pittsburgh
Auctions II Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-M150)
Organized by Jean-François Richard
Chair: Jean-Pierre Florens, Université de Toulouse I
The Impact of Synergies on Bidding in the Georgia School Milk Market
*Robert C. Marshall, Pennsylvania State University
Matthew E. Raiff, Pennsylvania State University
Discussant: Leslie Marx, University of Rochester
Conditionally Independent Private Values in OCS Wildcat Auctions
*Tong Li, Washington State University
Isabelle Perrigne, University of Southern California
Quang Vuong, University of Southern California
Discussant: Olivier Armantier, University of Pittsburgh
Reinforcement Learning in 2x2 Games and the Concept of Reinforcably Stable Strategies
*Thomas Brenner, Max-Planck-Institute for Research into Economic Systems
Discussant: Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Keio University
A Structural Econometric Ascending Auction Model, with an Application to the PCS Spectrum Auctions
*Matthew Shum, Stanford University
Han Hong, Stanford University
Discussant: Jacques Robert, Université de Montréal
Distributive Politics Sunday, June 28, 2:00-3:30 (R-R150)
Organized by Tracy Lewis
Chair: Paul Rothstein, Washington University in St. Louis
Distributive Politics and Representative Democracy
*Guillaume Cheikbossian, Columbia University and Warsaw University
Discussant: Jakob Svensson, The World Bank
Social Limits to Redistribution
*Giacomo Corneo, University of Bonn
Hans Peter Grüner, University of Bonn
Discussant: Andrea Prat, Tilburg University
Term Limits and Pork Barrel Politics
*Dan Bernhardt, University of Illinois and Queen's University
Eric Hughson, University of Utah
Sangita Dubey, Queen's University
Discussant: Paul Rothstein, Washington University in St. Louis
Foreign Investment Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-R130)
Organized by Robert Pindyck
Chair: Richard Barnett, University of Arkansas
Optimal Trade Policy in the Presence of DFI and Internal Tax Competition
*Laurel A. Adams, Northwestern University
Pierre Regibeau, Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona
Discussant: Raja Kali, Instituto Technologico Autonomo de Mexico
International Project Finance under Lender Heterogeneity
*Sule Ozler, Koç University
Sumru Altug, Koç University
Hakan Orbay, Koç University
Discussant: Yutaka Suzuki, Hosei University
Foreign Direct Investment and the Dynamic Effects of Tariff Policy
*William J. Polley, The University of Iowa
Discussant: Corinne Langinier, University of Clifornia at Berkeley
Relative FDI Incentives - The Principle of Comparative Advantage Once Again
*Larry D. Qiu, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
Discussant: Michael Devereux, University of British Columbia
Information and Uncertainty Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-R140)
Organized by Susan Athey
Chair: Chenghu Ma, McGill University
Increased Risk Taking with Multiple Risks
*Ed Schlee, Arizona State University
Christian Gollier, Université de Toulouse I
Discussant: Susan Athey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The Value of Information in Monotone Decision Problems
*Susan Athey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Jonathan Levin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Discussant: Dirk Bergemann, Yale University
Information Acquisition and Research Differentiation Prior to an Open-Bid Auction
*Serge Moresi, Georgetown University
Discussant: Ezra Friedman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The Demand for Sweepstakes
*Guofu Tan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Soo Hong Chew, Hong Kong University and University of California
Discussant: Christian Gollier, Université de Toulouse I
Axiomatics and Mechanism Design Sunday, June 28, 2:00-4:00 (R-R120)
Organized by Hervé Moulin
Chair: Hervé Moulin, Duke University
Strategyproof and Implementable Mechanisms for the Provision of a Menu of Public Goods
*Eiichi Miyagawa, University of Rochester
Discussant: Roberto Serrano, Brown University
Rationalizable Solutions to Pure Population Problems
*Walter Bossert, University of Nottingham
Charles Blackorby, University of British Columbia and GREQAM
David Donaldson, University of British Columbia
Discussant: Hervé Moulin, Duke University
Recapturing Efficiency in House Allocation with Existing Tenants
*Tayfun Sonmez, University of Michigan
Discussant: Yves Sprumont, Université de Montréal
Choquet Bargaining Solutions
*Lin Zhou, Duke University
Discussant: Hervé Moulin, Duke University