Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

Home Page
Programme
Papers
Presenters
 
Contact Us
Search this CD-ROM for: View the Latest Programme Information

COMPARISON OF MODEL SPECIFICATION METHODS


Category: Econometrics
SPECIFICATION TESTING
Sunday 25th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 1.5
Session Chair(s): Pascal Lavergne, INRA-ESR, FRANCE

Presenter(s): Brüggemann, Ralf

Co-Author(s): Krolzig, Hans-Martin and Lütkepohl, Helmut

Keyword(s): Data mining, Lag order determination, Model selection, Subset model, Vector autoregression

JEL(s): C32, C51

Abstract:

We compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework focussing on subset modeling strategies and the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets. We compare the chances of finding the true DGP, the accuracy of the implied impulse-responses, and the forecast performance. In Monte Carlo experiments, all procedures recover the DGP specification from large VARs with anticipated size and power close to commencing from the DGP itself. We find that subset strategies and PcGets are close competitors in many respects. Only the forecast comparison indicates a clear advantage of the PcGets algorithm.


View Paper

View PDF File

Filesize: 271 kb
Find this file in the
\Papers\999\
folder of this CD-ROM.

Latest Details
View this paper in the
online Programme

Customise
Customise your Event Programme to include your favourite papers, and email details of papers to friends and colleagues with the
online Programme


Paper Reference Number: 999

TOP OF PAGE
HOME
Econometric Society
57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

WebMeets.com Event Management LLP
Congress Home Page: http://www.eea-esem2002.it/
Programme Home Page: http://www.eea-esem.com/EEA-ESEM/ESEM2002/Prog/
Programme and CD generated with WebMeets.com Programme Management Software
Congress Programme Organized by FEEM

This page was created on Tuesday, 9th July 2002 at 19:22 GMT.