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ON THE ``HIRSHLEIFER EFFECT'' OF UNSCHEDULED MONETARY POLICY ANNOUNCEMENTS
Category: Economic Theory
Monetary Policy II Sunday 25th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 5.2
Session Chair(s):
Peter Anker, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, GERMANY
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Abstract:
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When monetary policy announcements are expected to occur at
scheduled dates, the event of an unscheduled announcement often
``surprises'' financial markets. However, if the information
provider knows the policy beforehand, he might be induced
to anticipate the release of information without waiting for the
next scheduled date, on the assumption that better informed
traders will be able to attain superior equilibria. On January 3,
2001, (and on April 18, 2001) U.S. Fed'chairman announced a half
point interest rate cut well before the next scheduled meeting.
The real surprise for the markets was the timing, not the content,
of the announcement. In this paper we look at the volume of trade
in interest rate futures before these two dates and compare it to
the volume of trade before scheduled meetings. We argue that the
wrong timing of policy announcements might involve an
``Hirshleifer effect'' and prevent a significant volumes of
securities to transact for hedging purposes.
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Find this file in the \Papers\913\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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