Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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EXPECTATIONS AND BUBBLES IN AN EXPERIMENTAL ASSET PRICING MODEL


Category: Economic Theory
Behavioral Finance
Tuesday 27th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 5.5
Session Chair(s): Ani Guerdjikova, University of Heidelberg, Afred-Weber Institute, GERMANY

Presenter(s): Tuinstra, Jan

Co-Author(s): Hommes, Cars, Sonnemans, Joep and van de Velden, Henk

Keyword(s): asset pricing, expectations, experimental economics, speculative bubbles

JEL(s): C91, C92, D84, G12, G14

Abstract:

We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price in a standard asset pricing model. In most experiments bubbles emerge endogenously. These bubbles are inconsistent with rational expectations and seem to be driven by trend chasing behavior or positive feedback expectations of the participants. We also analyse individual predictions of participants and find that participants within a group tend to coordinate on a common prediction strategy.


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Paper Reference Number: 786

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Econometric Society
57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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