Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF TWO NONLINEAR MODELS IN REAL EXCHANGE RATE SERIES


Category: Econometrics
EXCHANGE RATES:EMPIRICAL
Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.1
Session Chair(s): Marie Bessec , EUREQua-University Paris Panthéon-Sorbonne , FRANCE and François-Mathieu Robineau, ESSEC, FRANCE

Presenter(s): Korhonen, Marko

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): ESTAR, Markov switching, Real exchange rate

JEL(s): C22, F31, F41

Abstract:

In this paper we examine whether the Markov switching (MS) models and exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) nonlinear models can give any additional insights into real exchange rate behaviour during the period 1974-1998. The results from MS models show that there are clearly long swings in the real exchange rate series, which can be characterize as a depreciation regime and an appreciation regime. Furthermore, the regime staying probabilities are relatively high, although the process is eventually mean reverting. The ESTAR model results implies random walk behaviour for small deviations from PPP and fast adjustment for large deviations, which are in line with the MS model


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Paper Reference Number: 674

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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