Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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STRATEGIC MERGER WAVES: A THEORY OF MUSICAL CHAIRS


Category: Economic Theory
Industrial Organisation: Mergers II
Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 1.4
Session Chair(s): Emanuele Giovannetti, University of Rome "a Sapienza", ITALY, University of Cambridge , UNITED KINGDOM

Presenter(s): Toxvaerd, Flavio

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): Coordination, Dynamic global games, Merger waves, Preemption, Real options games

JEL(s): C73, D92, G34, L13

Abstract:

052<p type="texpara" tag="Body Text" et="abstract" >This paper proposes an explanation of merger waves based on a dynamic preemption game. A set of acquirers compete over time for scarce targets. At each point in time, an acquirer can either postpone a takeover attempt, or raid immediately. By postponing the takeover, an acquirer may gain from more favourable future market conditions, but runs the risk of being preempted by rivals. I first consider a complete information model and show that the above tradeoff leads to a continuum of subgame perfect equilibria. All equilibria share the feature that all acquiring firms rush simultaneously in merger waves. The model is then extended to a dynamic global game by introducing slightly noisy private information about merger profitability. This game is shown to have a unique perfect Bayesian equilibrium. The comparative dynamics predictions of the model are related to empirical findings.


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Paper Reference Number: 629

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25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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