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POOLING OF FORECASTS
Category: Econometrics
FORECASTING III Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.3
Session Chair(s):
Paolo Paruolo, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy, ITALY
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Abstract:
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We consider forecasting using a combination, when no model coincides
with a non-constant data generation process (DGP). Practical experience
suggests that combining forecasts adds value, and can even dominate the best
individual device. We show why this can occur when forecasting models are
differentially mis-specified, and is likely to occur when the DGP is subject
to location shifts. Moreover, averaging may then dominate over estimated weights in the combination. Finally, it cannot be proved that only non-encompassed devices should be retained in the commbination. Empirical and
Monte Carlo illustrations confirm the analysis.
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Find this file in the \Papers\574\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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