Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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POOLING OF FORECASTS


Category: Econometrics
FORECASTING III
Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.3
Session Chair(s): Paolo Paruolo, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy, ITALY

Presenter(s): Clements, Michael

Co-Author(s): Hendry, David

Keyword(s): forecasting, location shifts, Pooling

JEL(s): C32

Abstract:

We consider forecasting using a combination, when no model coincides with a non-constant data generation process (DGP). Practical experience suggests that combining forecasts adds value, and can even dominate the best individual device. We show why this can occur when forecasting models are differentially mis-specified, and is likely to occur when the DGP is subject to location shifts. Moreover, averaging may then dominate over estimated weights in the combination. Finally, it cannot be proved that only non-encompassed devices should be retained in the commbination. Empirical and Monte Carlo illustrations confirm the analysis.


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Paper Reference Number: 574

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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