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NONPARAMETRIC MULTI-STEP AHEAD PREDICTION IN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Category: Econometrics
TIME SERIES III Tuesday 27th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 4.2
Session Chair(s):
Marius Ooms, Free University Amsterdam, NETHERLANDS
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Abstract:
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We consider the problem of multi-step ahead prediction in time
series analysis using nonparametric smoothing techniques.
Forecasting is always one of the main objectives in time series
analysis. Recent research has shown that nonlinear time series
models have certain advantages in multi-step ahead forecasting.
Traditionally, nonparametric k-step ahead least squares
prediction for nonlinear AR(d) models is done by estimating
the k-step conditional mean function via nonparametric smoothing of X(t+k) on X(t),...,X(t-d+1) directly. In this paper we propose a
multi-stage nonparametric predictor. We show that the new
predictor has smaller asymptotic mean squared error than the
direct smoother, though the convergence rate is the same. Hence,
the proposed predictor is more efficient. Some simulation results,
advice for practical bandwidth selection and a real data example
are provided.
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Find this file in the \Papers\551\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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