Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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PRIVATE INFORMATION AND THE STOCK MARKETS'S REACTION TO EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS


Category: Econometrics
FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS V
Tuesday 27th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 1.4
Session Chair(s): Clara Vega, University of Pennsylvania, UNITED STATES

Presenter(s): Vega, Clara

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): earnings announcements, efficient market hypothesis, high-frequency data, market microstructure, private information

JEL(s): C10, D40, D80, G00

Abstract:

This paper presents a new explanation for the post-announcement drift, i.e., the time-lag in market price adjustment to news surprises. Our explanation is that the post-announcement drift is a function of the private information agents have prior to news announcements. The more information people have about the "true" value of an asset – and the more they trade on this information – the smaller the abnormal return drift will be. We test this hypothesis empirically. Since private information is not observable by the econometrician, we use transaction-level data and a sequential trade microstructure model to calculate the probability of private information-base trading (PIBT) prior to an earnings announcement.


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Paper Reference Number: 54

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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