Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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DEGREE OF MISPRICING WITH THE BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL AND NONPARAMETRIC CURES


Category: Econometrics
FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS I
Sunday 25th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 2.2
Session Chair(s): Albert Menkveld, Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam, NETHERLANDS

Presenter(s): Gencay, Ramo

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): Bagging, Bayesian regularization, Early stopping, Feedforward networks, Option pricing

JEL(s): C14, C53, G00, G13

Abstract:

Black-Scholes pricing errors are larger in the deeper out-of-the-money options relative to the near out-of-the-money options, and mispricing worsens with increased volatility. Our results indicate that the Black-Scholes model is not the proper pricing tool in high volatility situations especially for very deep out-of-the-money options. Feedforward network provides more accurate pricing estimates for the deeper out-of-the money options and handles pricing during high volatility with considerably lower errors for out-of-the-money call and put options. This could be invaluable information for practitioners as option pricing is a major challenge during high volatility periods.


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Paper Reference Number: 48

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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