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CHARTIST AND FUNDAMENTALIST ANALYSIS : INTERACTION OR ALTERNATIVE REFERENCE IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET ?
Category: Econometrics
EXCHANGE RATES:EMPIRICAL Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.1
Session Chair(s):
Marie Bessec , EUREQua-University Paris Panthéon-Sorbonne , FRANCE and François-Mathieu Robineau, ESSEC, FRANCE
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Abstract:
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This paper examines the relative importance of chartist versus fundamentalist analysis in exchange rate determination. This question is studied in the two regimes markov-switching model of Vigfusson, that we extend to test whether each group is preponderant in one of the two states or, on the contrary, has a significant or identical influence in the two regimes of volatility. The testing procedure is applied to the Canadian, Japanese and German exchange rates over the last two decades. We obtain results consistent with Vigfusson's findings. Chartists dominate markets in calm periods, while high volatility phases are related to the stabilizing impact of fundamentalist traders.
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Find this file in the \Papers\477\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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