Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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CHARTIST AND FUNDAMENTALIST ANALYSIS : INTERACTION OR ALTERNATIVE REFERENCE IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET ?


Category: Econometrics
EXCHANGE RATES:EMPIRICAL
Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.1
Session Chair(s): Marie Bessec , EUREQua-University Paris Panthéon-Sorbonne , FRANCE and François-Mathieu Robineau, ESSEC, FRANCE

Presenter(s): Bessec , Marie and Robineau, François-Mathieu

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): , chartists, exchange rates, fundamentalists, Markov-Switching.

JEL(s): C32, F31

Abstract:

This paper examines the relative importance of chartist versus fundamentalist analysis in exchange rate determination. This question is studied in the two regimes markov-switching model of Vigfusson, that we extend to test whether each group is preponderant in one of the two states or, on the contrary, has a significant or identical influence in the two regimes of volatility. The testing procedure is applied to the Canadian, Japanese and German exchange rates over the last two decades. We obtain results consistent with Vigfusson's findings. Chartists dominate markets in calm periods, while high volatility phases are related to the stabilizing impact of fundamentalist traders.


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Paper Reference Number: 477

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25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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