Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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FORECASTING THE SPOT PRICES OF VARIOUS COFFEE TYPES USING LINEAR AND NON-LINEAR ERROR CORRECTION MODELS


Category: Econometrics
FORECASTING II
Monday 26th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 5.6
Session Chair(s): Jesus Otero, Universidad del Rosario, COLOMBIA

Presenter(s): Otero, Jesus

Co-Author(s): Milas, Costas and Panagiotidis, Theodore

Keyword(s): asymmetric and non-linear error correction models, coffee prices, forecasting

JEL(s): C32, C51, C52, C53

Abstract:

This paper estimates linear and non-linear error correction models for the spot prices of four different coffee types. In line with economic priors, we find some evidence that when prices are too high, they move back to equilibrium more slowly than when they are too low. This may reflect the fact that, in the short run, it is easier for countries to restrict the supply of coffee in order to raise prices, rather than increase supply in order to reduce them. Further, there is some evidence that adjustment is faster when deviations from the equilibrium level get larger. Our forecasting analysis suggests that asymmetric and non-linear error correction models offer weak evidence of improved forecasting performance relative to the random walk model.


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Paper Reference Number: 40

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25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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