Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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ECB-COUNCIL MEETINGS AND MONEY MARKET UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM OPTION MARKETS


Category: Econometrics
MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION I
Sunday 25th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 4.8
Session Chair(s): Philip Vermeulen, European Central Bank , GERMANY

Presenter(s): Mandler, Martin

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): implied probability density functions, monetary policy, option prices, risk-neutral expectations

JEL(s): E58, G14

Abstract:

In this paper we apply one of the new techniques to extract information on market expectations from option prices to investigate the effects of ECB-council meetings on uncertainty in market expectations. We construct risk-neutral probability density functions from LIFFE-Euribor futures options for ten episodes containing ECB-council meetings in 2000 and 2001. We then compute statistics derived from the risk-neutral density functions that capture the uncertainty of market participant's expectations and investigate changes in these statistics related to ECB-council meetings.


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Paper Reference Number: 250

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Econometric Society
57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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