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ECB-COUNCIL MEETINGS AND MONEY MARKET UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM OPTION MARKETS
Category: Econometrics
MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION I Sunday 25th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 4.8
Session Chair(s):
Philip Vermeulen, European Central Bank , GERMANY
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Abstract:
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In this paper we apply one of the new techniques to extract information on market expectations from option prices to
investigate the effects of ECB-council meetings on uncertainty in market expectations. We construct risk-neutral probability
density functions from LIFFE-Euribor futures options for ten episodes containing ECB-council meetings in 2000 and 2001.
We then compute statistics derived from the risk-neutral density functions that capture the uncertainty of market
participant's expectations and investigate changes in these statistics related to ECB-council meetings.
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Find this file in the \Papers\250\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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