Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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MARKOV-SWTCHING MODELS OF BUSINESS CYCLE: CAN THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL DETECT THE GROWTH REGIME?


Category: Econometrics
REGIME SWITCHING MODELS I
Sunday 25th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 4.9
Session Chair(s): Chung-Ming Kuan, Academia Sinica, TAIWAN

Presenter(s): GUERRERO, Guillaume

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): Business Cycle, Consumption, Markov Switching model, Unobservable components

JEL(s): C32, C51, E20

Abstract:

This article proposes first a univariate Markov-Switching Model of US GNP,decomposed into unobservable permanent and transitory components. Household consumption is then introduced into the model. The addition of this variable is interesting for two reasons: test of the permanent income theory through a direct approach,better detection of some recessions, notably those related to a deficit in global demand. Following this, an RBC model with indivisible labour, in which occur two types of shocks (permanent and transitory) governed by a first order Markov process, will be directly confronted with its natural empirical counterpart:UC-MS bivariate model.


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Paper Reference Number: 1649

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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