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MARKOV-SWTCHING MODELS OF BUSINESS CYCLE: CAN THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL DETECT THE GROWTH REGIME?
Category: Econometrics
REGIME SWITCHING MODELS I Sunday 25th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 4.9
Session Chair(s):
Chung-Ming Kuan, Academia Sinica, TAIWAN
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Abstract:
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This article proposes first a univariate Markov-Switching Model of US GNP,decomposed into unobservable permanent and transitory components. Household consumption is then introduced into the model. The addition of this variable is interesting for two reasons:
test of the permanent income theory through a direct approach,better detection of some recessions, notably those related to a deficit in global demand.
Following this, an RBC model with indivisible labour, in which occur two types of shocks (permanent and transitory) governed by a first order Markov process, will be directly confronted with its natural empirical counterpart:UC-MS bivariate model.
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Find this file in the \Papers\1649\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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