Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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MODELING TIME SERIES COUNT DATA: AN AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL POISSON MODEL


Category: Econometrics
COUNT DATA MODELS I
Sunday 25th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.2
Session Chair(s): Joao M. C. Santos Silva, ISEG, Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa, PORTUGAL

Presenter(s): Heinen, Andreas

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): counts, forecast, time series, transactions data, volatility

JEL(s): C25, C53, G00

Abstract:

This paper introduces and evaluates new models for time series count data. The Autoregressive Conditional Poisson model makes it possible to deal with issues of discreteness, overdispersion (variance greater than the mean) and serial correlation. A variety of models, based on the double Poisson distribution is introduced, which introduce an additional dispersion parameter and at a later stage make it time-varying. The models are applied to a medical series as well as to the daily number of price change durations of $.75, thus providing a volatility model based on intradaily data. It is shown that the model provides very good density forecasts.


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Paper Reference Number: 1620

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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