Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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ESTIMATING THE EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATE: THE CASE OF VENEZUELA


Category: Econometrics
EXCHANGE RATES:EMPIRICAL
Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.1
Session Chair(s): Marie Bessec , EUREQua-University Paris Panthéon-Sorbonne , FRANCE and François-Mathieu Robineau, ESSEC, FRANCE

Presenter(s): Bjørnland, Hilde

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): dynamic restrictions, Exchange rate fluctuations, purchasing power parity, structural VAR

JEL(s): C32, E32, F31

Abstract:

To determine whether the real exchange rate is misaligned with respect to its long-run equilibrium level is an important issue for policy makers. This note clarifies and calculates the concept of the equilibrium real exchange rate using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. By imposing long run restrictions on a VAR model for Venezuela, four structural shocks are identified: Nominal demand, real demand, supply and oil price shocks. The identified shocks and their impulse responses are consistent with an open economy model of economic fluctuations, and highlight the exchange rate as a transmission mechanism in a large oil producing country.


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Paper Reference Number: 1593

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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