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TESTING FOR STRUCTURAL BREAKS IN NONLINEAR DYNAMIC MODELS
Category: Econometrics
STRUCTURAL BREAKS I Monday 26th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.3
Session Chair(s):
Alain Hecq, University of Maastricht, NETHERLANDS
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Abstract:
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In this paper we provide a number of tests that are designed to be
powerful against structural breaks while allowing for a variety of
nonlinear specifications for the dynamic model. It is clear that in the
presence of nonlinearity standard tests of structural breaks for linear
models may not have the expected performance under the null hypothesis of no breaks because the model is misspecified.
We therefore proceed by approximating the conditional expectation of
the dependent variable through a neural network.
Then, the residual from this
approximation is tested using standard residual based structural break
tests. We investigate the asymptoptic behaviour of residual based
structural break tests in nonlinear regression models.
Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the new tests are powerful
against a variety of structural breaks while allowing for
stationary nonlinearities.
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Find this file in the \Papers\1531\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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