Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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EVALUATION OF CONDITIONAL VALUE-AT-RISK MODELS


Category: Econometrics
GARCH MODELS III
Tuesday 27th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.5
Session Chair(s): Michael Wolf, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, SPAIN

Presenter(s): Saltoglu, Burak

Co-Author(s): Lee, Tae Hwy

Keyword(s): bootstrap, CaViaR, CVaR, EWMA, extreme value theory, GARCH, generalized extreme value distribution, generalized Pareto distribution, Hill estimator, historical simulation, Monte Carlo method, nonparametric quantile regression, predictive ability

JEL(s): C16

Abstract:

We evaluate predictive performance of a selection of conditional and unconditional Value-at-Risk (VaR)models. By filtering various time varying volatility models we predict risk forecasts and compare them with that of unconditional VaR models. We consider VaR models based on ARCH models, historical simulation, Monte Carlo, nonparametric quantile regressions, and extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, we also employed what is often called as conditional VaR (CVaR). The return series are standardized using various conditional variance models such as GARCH, FIGARCH, EGARCH, models. We apply these methods to the foreign exchange of several countries that suffered recent financial crisis, and compare their performances in terms of various evaluation criteria using the tests of White (2000) and Hansen (2001).


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Paper Reference Number: 1483

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25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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