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A FLEXIBLE COEFFICIENT SMOOTH TRANSITION TIME SERIES MODEL
Category: Econometrics
NONLINEAR TIME SERIES II Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 4.10
Session Chair(s):
Marcelo C Medeiros, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, BRAZIL
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Abstract:
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In this paper, we propose a flexible smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)
model with multiple regimes and multiple transition variables.
This formulation can be interpreted as a time varying linear model
where the coefficients are the outputs of a single hidden
layer feedforward neural network.
This proposal has the major advantage of nesting several nonlinear models, such as,
the Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegressive (SETAR),
the AutoRegressive Neural Network (AR-NN), and
the Logistic STAR models.
Furthermore, if the neural network is interpreted as a nonparametric universal
approximation to any Borel-measurable function, our formulation is directly comparable to the
Functional Coefficient AutoRegressive (FAR)
and the Single-Index Coefficient Regression models.
A model building procedure is developed based on statistical inference arguments.
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Find this file in the \Papers\1462\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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