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A FORECAST COMPARISON OF VOLATILITY MODELS: DOES ANYTHING BEAT A GARCH(1,1)?
Category: Econometrics
FORECASTING I Sunday 25th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 1.1
Session Chair(s):
John Muellbauer, Nuffield College, Oxford University, UNITED KINGDOM
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Abstract:
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We compare a large number of volatility models in terms of their
ability to describe the behavior of the behavior of conditional
variance, using out-of-sample data. Our question of interest is
whether more sophisticated volatility models are able to
outperform the simple GARCH(1,1) model. This question is
addressed using the test for superior predictive ability (SPA) by
Hansen (2001).
Using DM-$ exchange rate data, we do not find evidence that the
GARCH(1,1) is outperformed by other models. However, when we
compare the models using IBM equity return data, we find the
GARCH(1,1) to be significantly outperformed by alternative
models. Most of the models that perform well in this data set are
models that can accommodate a leverage effect.
Our analysis confirms that the test for SPA of Hansen (2001) is
more powerful that the Reality Check (RC) of White (2000).
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Find this file in the \Papers\1312\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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