Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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BEHAVIOR IN A DYNAMIC DECISION PROBLEM:EVIDENCE FROM THE LABORATORY


Category: Econometrics
STRUCTURAL DYNAMIC MODELS
Monday 26th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.5
Session Chair(s): Linda Wong, Binghamton University, UNITED STATES

Presenter(s): Keane, Michael

Co-Author(s): Houser, Dan and McCabe, Kevin

Keyword(s): dynamic models, experimental economics

JEL(s): C11, C15, C91

Abstract:

It has been long recognized that different people may use different strategies, or decision rules, when playing games or dealing with other complex decision problems. We provide a new Bayesian procedure for drawing inferences about the nature and number of decision rules that are present in a population of agents who are each confronted with a dynamic decision problem. We apply our procedure to analyze the behavior of group of subjects in a laboratory setting. The procedure performs very well at grouping people into types. We were surprised to find that, in a very difficult dynamic decision problem, nearly a third of people were able to closely approximate the optimal decision rule, while more than another third were able to uncover a very good rule of thumb.


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Paper Reference Number: 1265

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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