Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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FORECASTING US CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES THROUGH A DISAGGREGATED I(2) ANALYSIS


Category: Econometrics
FORECASTING III
Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.3
Session Chair(s): Paolo Paruolo, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy, ITALY

Presenter(s): Espasa, Antoni and Senra, Eva

Co-Author(s): Poncela, Pilar

Keyword(s): COINTEGRATION, CPI, DISAGGREGATION, FACTOR MODELS, FORECASTING, I(2) ANALYSIS

JEL(s): C32

Abstract:

In this paper we carry a disaggregated study of the monthly US Consumer Price Index (CPI). We consider a breakdown of US CPI in four subindexes, corresponding to four groups of markets:energy, food, rest of commodities and rest of services. Consumer prices in the last three components show I(2) behavior, while the energy subindex shows a lower order of integration. Even restricting the analysis to the series that show the same order of integration, the trending behavior of prices in these markets can be very different as shown by an I(2) cointegration analysis and a common trend analysis based on dynamic factor models. In this context, disaggregation helps to improve forecasting accuracy for the non-energy US CPI, with improvements in one year ahead forecasts over 20%, in terms of the root mean squared error.


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Paper Reference Number: 1263

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25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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