Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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CONVERGENCE OF OUTPUT IN THE G-7 COUNTRIES


Category: Econometrics
COINTEGRATION: ESTIMATION II
Tuesday 27th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 5.6
Session Chair(s): Hans Christian Kongsted, University of Copenhagen, DENMARK

Presenter(s): Ericsson, Neil R

Co-Author(s): Halket, Jonathan R.

Keyword(s): cointegration, convergence, economic growth, long run, output

JEL(s): C12, F43

Abstract:

Tests of convergence in a time series framework have historically been formulated as univariate tests of stationarity of the output differential. However, convergence is a multivariate hypothesis, so a multivariate framework is more natural for testing the hypothesis of convergence. One such framework is the cointegrated vector autoregression, with the Johansen procedure providing the statistical basis for tests of convergence. This approach yields novel results relative to those obtained from the univariate approach. For instance, the multivariate approach detects output convergence among France, Germany, and Italy over the last century, whereas the univariate approach fails to detect any such convergence.


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Paper Reference Number: 1224

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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