Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

Home Page
Programme
Papers
Presenters
 
Contact Us
Search this CD-ROM for: View the Latest Programme Information

OIL PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES: NORWEGIAN EVIDENCE


Category: Econometrics
NONLINEAR TIME SERIES II
Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 4.10
Session Chair(s): Marcelo C Medeiros, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, BRAZIL

Presenter(s): Akram, Qaisar Farooq

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): Exchange rates, Non-linear econometric models, Oil prices, Random walk

JEL(s): C51, E44, E51, F31

Abstract:

Previous empirical studies have suggested an ambiguous relationship between crude oil prices and exchange rates. In contrast with these studies, we explore the possibility of a non-linear relationship between oil prices and the Norwegian exchange rate. We reveal a negative relationship between oil prices and the value of the Norwegian exchange rate that is relatively strong when oil prices are below 14 dollars and are falling. Allowance for this non-linear relationship leads to an econometrically well specified and interpretable exchange rate model that also has strong predictive properties. Notably, this model substantially improves the forecasts compared with those from a similar model but with linear oil price effects and a random walk model. We undertake an extensive evaluation of our findings to demonstrate their robustness.


View Paper

View PDF File

Filesize: 883 kb
Find this file in the
\Papers\1223\
folder of this CD-ROM.

Latest Details
View this paper in the
online Programme

Customise
Customise your Event Programme to include your favourite papers, and email details of papers to friends and colleagues with the
online Programme


Paper Reference Number: 1223

TOP OF PAGE
HOME
Econometric Society
57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

WebMeets.com Event Management LLP
Congress Home Page: http://www.eea-esem2002.it/
Programme Home Page: http://www.eea-esem.com/EEA-ESEM/ESEM2002/Prog/
Programme and CD generated with WebMeets.com Programme Management Software
Congress Programme Organized by FEEM

This page was created on Tuesday, 9th July 2002 at 19:22 GMT.