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OPTIMAL RISK TAKING AND INFORMATION POLICY TO AVOID CURRENCY AND LIQUIDITY CRISES
Category: Economic Theory
Exchange Rates Sunday 25th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.6
Session Chair(s):
Christina E. Metz, University of Kassel, GERMANY
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Abstract:
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This paper reconsiders the principal's problem of determining the
optimal combination of risk taking and information dissemination,
when threatened with a coordinated speculative attack on the fixed
exchange rate by traders, respectively a coordinated withdrawal of
credits by a group of lenders. In a global game approach, we find
that optimal risk and economic transparency are contingent on the
prior expected mean of fundamentals. Whenever the prior mean of
economic performance is below a certain threshold, the central
bank respectively the firm should commit to maximal risk and to
disclosing private information of maximal precision. For good
prior expectations, in contrast, optimal policy requires the
principal to avoid any risks and to disseminate private
information of lowest possible precision.
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Find this file in the \Papers\1200\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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