Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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FORECASTING EURO AREA INFLATION:DOES AGGREGATING PRICE COMPONENT FORECASTS IMPROVE FORECASTACCURACY?


Category: Econometrics
FORECASTING III
Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.3
Session Chair(s): Paolo Paruolo, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy, ITALY

Presenter(s): Hubrich, Kirstin

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): euro area inflation, linear time series models, subindex forecast aggregation

JEL(s): C32, C53, E31, E37

Abstract:

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECB's monetary policy strategy. This study systematically analyses whether the forecasting performance of euro area inflation models can be improved by aggregating forecasts of HICP subindices in comparison to forecasting total euro area HICP inflation directly. The comparison is carried out across different methodological approaches, including univariate and multivariate time series models, as well as across different forecast horizons and aggregates. The results indicate that under certain conditions it might be better to forecast euro area inflation directly instead of aggregating forecasts of HICP subcomponents.


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Paper Reference Number: 1191

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25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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