|
FORECASTING EURO AREA INFLATION:DOES AGGREGATING PRICE COMPONENT FORECASTS IMPROVE FORECASTACCURACY?
Category: Econometrics
FORECASTING III Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.3
Session Chair(s):
Paolo Paruolo, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy, ITALY
|
Abstract:
|
Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is
essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECB's monetary
policy strategy. This study systematically analyses whether the
forecasting performance of euro area inflation models can be
improved by aggregating forecasts of HICP subindices in comparison
to forecasting total euro area HICP inflation directly. The
comparison is carried out across different methodological
approaches, including univariate and multivariate time series
models, as well as across different forecast horizons and
aggregates. The results indicate that under certain conditions it
might be better to forecast euro area inflation directly instead
of aggregating forecasts of HICP subcomponents.
|
|
|
|
|
Find this file in the \Papers\1191\ folder of this CD-ROM.
|
|
|
Customise
|
Customise your Event Programme to include your favourite papers, and email details of papers to friends and colleagues with the
online Programme
|
|
|