Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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INFORMATION DISPARITIES AS A TRIGGER OF CURRENCY CRISES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE


Category: Econometrics
FINANCIAL AND CURRENCY CRISES
Wednesday 28th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 1.1
Session Chair(s): Axel A. Weber, University of Cologne and Center for Financial Studies, GERMANY and Guenter Beck, University of Frankfurt, GERMANY

Presenter(s): Tillmann, Peter

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): country funds, currency crisis, global games, Markov-switching, private information

JEL(s): D82, F31

Abstract:

This paper empirically tests a main result of the literature on speculative attacks initiated by Morris and Shin (1998) in which agents receive noisy private signals. Changes in the distribution of information can trigger an attack. The impact of heterogeneous information between speculators on the probability of jumping to a crisis state is investigated within a Markov-switching framework. It is shown that less disparate information among domestic and foreign investors, proxied by the premia on country funds, lowers the probability of a currency crisis for the French Franc and the Italian Lira during the 1992 crises of the ERM.


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Paper Reference Number: 117

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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