Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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SHORT-RUN ATTRACTOR REGIMES AND THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF OUPUT AND PRICES


Category: Econometrics
STRUCTURAL BREAKS I
Monday 26th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 5.3
Session Chair(s): Alain Hecq, University of Maastricht, NETHERLANDS

Presenter(s): Hecq, Alain

Co-Author(s): Candelon, Bertrand

Keyword(s): Common Cycles, Inflation and Output Growth, Markov Switching

JEL(s): C22, C32

Abstract:

This paper addresses the stability throughout different phases of the business cycle of the relationship involving the inflation rate and the real output growth. Thanks to a new methodology developed in this article, we analyze the presence of what we call short-run attractor regimes. These regimes characterize period of time where the impulse responses for a set of stationary time series are collinear. We find that inflation does not impact real output in the long-run but that short-run relationships are subject to change in regimes.


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Paper Reference Number: 1155

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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