Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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SWITCHING EQUILIBRIA. THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL FOR STOCK PRICES REVISITED


Category: Econometrics
REGIME SWITCHING MODELS I
Sunday 25th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 4.9
Session Chair(s): Chung-Ming Kuan, Academia Sinica, TAIWAN

Presenter(s): Vazquez, Jesus

Co-Author(s): Gutierrez, Maria-Jose

Keyword(s): cointegration, feedback, multiple RE equilibria, stock price volatility

JEL(s): C62, G12

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the different dynamic features displayed by alternative RE equilibria in the context of the present value for stock prices with feedback. It is shown that there exists a unique (bubble-free) RE equilibrium implying cointegration between stock prices and dividends and this unique equilibrium is characterized either by the fundamental or, alternatively, by the backward solution depending on the size of the feedback parameter. Based on this result, it is illustrated a mechanism of switching equilibria caused by small changes in the dividend process parameters. Using historical US data and structural estimation, the hypothesis of feedback from stock prices to dividends is tested. We test for the presence of switching equilibria. The empirical results provide evidence of a significant feedback from stock prices to dividends. When analyzing different sub-samples we find evidence supporting the hypothesis of switching equilibria.


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Paper Reference Number: 113

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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