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GENERAL-TO-SPECIFIC MODEL SELECTION PROCEDURES FOR STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS
Category: Econometrics
VAR MODELS Tuesday 27th August 2002, 14:30 - 16:00, Room: 4.9
Session Chair(s):
Frank Schorfheide, University of Pennsylvania, UNITED STATES
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Abstract:
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Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics.
Despite their advantages, just-identified SVAR models suffer from
(i) the great number of parameters,
(ii) the resulting uncertainty associated with impulse responses,
(iii) the existence of alternative observationally-equivalent just-identified models and
(iv) the lack of identification of the imposed causal ordering of the variables of the system.
In this paper we propose general-to-specific reductions of just-identified SVAR models to overcome these limitations. We show that the computer-automated model selection algorithm embodied in PcGets can be used for an efficient implementation of the underlying methodology. The application of the proposed reduction strategy to a US monetary system demonstrates the feasibility of PcGets for the analysis of large macroeconomic data sets.
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Find this file in the \Papers\1100\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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