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A BOUNDED INFLUENCE ESTIMATION AND OUTLIER DETECTION FOR ARCH/GARCH MODELSWITH AN APPLICATION TO FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
Category: Econometrics
GARCH MODELS II Monday 26th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 1.8
Session Chair(s):
Felix Chan, University of Western Australia, AUSTRALIA
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Abstract:
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In this paper, we propose a bounded influence estimation (BIE) and outlier detection procedure for the ARCH and GARCH models of foreign exchange rates. It is known that due to outliers, exchange rates present heavy tails that are not explained by standard ARCH and GARCH models. The proposed BIE is robust against departure of the disturbances from normality, and its performance is compared with the MLE and semi-parametric models. A method of detection of additive outliers is developed. The economic events that lead to outliers in foreign exchange rates are identified and studied.
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Find this file in the \Papers\106\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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