Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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A BOUNDED INFLUENCE ESTIMATION AND OUTLIER DETECTION FOR ARCH/GARCH MODELSWITH AN APPLICATION TO FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES


Category: Econometrics
GARCH MODELS II
Monday 26th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 1.8
Session Chair(s): Felix Chan, University of Western Australia, AUSTRALIA

Presenter(s): Kao, Chihwa

Co-Author(s): Li, Jinliang

Keyword(s): ARCH/GARCH, bounded influence estimation, Foreign Exchange Rates, Outlier Detection

JEL(s): C22, G00

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a bounded influence estimation (BIE) and outlier detection procedure for the ARCH and GARCH models of foreign exchange rates. It is known that due to outliers, exchange rates present heavy tails that are not explained by standard ARCH and GARCH models. The proposed BIE is robust against departure of the disturbances from normality, and its performance is compared with the MLE and semi-parametric models. A method of detection of additive outliers is developed. The economic events that lead to outliers in foreign exchange rates are identified and studied.


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Paper Reference Number: 106

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57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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