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OUT-OF-SAMPLE PERFORMANCE OF SPOT INTEREST RATE MODELS
Category: Econometrics
INFERENCE II Tuesday 27th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 4.6
Session Chair(s):
Grant Hillier, University of Southampton, UNITED KINGDOM
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Abstract:
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We provide a comprehensive study of the
out-of-sample performance of a wide variety of existing spot interest rate
models in density forecasts, which characterizes the full dynamics of
interest rates. The models include continuous-time single-factor diffusion
models, GARCH models, regime-switching models, jump diffusion models, as
well as their various hybrid combinations. A new evaluation method for
out-of-sample forecasts is employed to assess these models. We find that it
is important, in terms of both in-sample and out-of-sample criteria, to
model interest rate volatility clustering. It
is also important to model for the conditional mean of the interest rate
level. In the absence of regime-switching and jumps, linear and nonlinear
drifts are dominated by no drift models in terms of out-of-sample forecasts,
although the former give better in-sample fits. When regime-switching and/or
jumps are introduced, linear drift specification becomes better than no
drift models as well as nonlinear polynomial-type drift models in
out-of-sample forecasts.
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Find this file in the \Papers\1045\ folder of this CD-ROM.
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