Econometric Society 57th European Meeting
25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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OUT-OF-SAMPLE PERFORMANCE OF SPOT INTEREST RATE MODELS


Category: Econometrics
INFERENCE II
Tuesday 27th August 2002, 09:30 - 11:00, Room: 4.6
Session Chair(s): Grant Hillier, University of Southampton, UNITED KINGDOM

Presenter(s): Hong, Yongmiao, Li, Haitao and Zhao, Feng

Co-Author(s): none

Keyword(s): , Density forecasts, Out-of-sample forecasts, Short-term interest rate

JEL(s): G00

Abstract:

We provide a comprehensive study of the out-of-sample performance of a wide variety of existing spot interest rate models in density forecasts, which characterizes the full dynamics of interest rates. The models include continuous-time single-factor diffusion models, GARCH models, regime-switching models, jump diffusion models, as well as their various hybrid combinations. A new evaluation method for out-of-sample forecasts is employed to assess these models. We find that it is important, in terms of both in-sample and out-of-sample criteria, to model interest rate volatility clustering. It is also important to model for the conditional mean of the interest rate level. In the absence of regime-switching and jumps, linear and nonlinear drifts are dominated by no drift models in terms of out-of-sample forecasts, although the former give better in-sample fits. When regime-switching and/or jumps are introduced, linear drift specification becomes better than no drift models as well as nonlinear polynomial-type drift models in out-of-sample forecasts.


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Paper Reference Number: 1045

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25th August 2002 - 28th August 2002, Venice, Italy

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