These are the sessions for January 3, 1998 Econometric Society Winter Meeting
Session: Arbitrage and Bubbles
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- DuSable Room
Presiding: Fernando Zapatero, ITAM, Mexico City
Papers:
Ho-Mou Wu, and Wen-Chung Guo, National Taiwan University, "Speculation with Rational Beliefs"
Jan Werner and Xiaodong Huang, University of Minnesota, "Valuation Bubbles and Sequential Bubbles"
Frank H. Page, University of Alabama, and Myrna H. Wooders, University of Toronto, "Inconsequential Arbitrage and Equilibrium in Economies with Short Selling and Price Dependent Preferences"
Discussants:
Manuel S. Santos, ITAM, Mexico City
Fernando Zapatero, ITAM, Mexico City
Session: Credit Markets and Macroeconomic Dynamics
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Russell Cooper, Boston University
Papers:
Thomas Cooley, University of Rochester, and Vincenzo Quadrini, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, "Financial Market and Firm Dynamics"
Stafan Krieger, Yale University, "The Distributional Dynamics of Debt: A Business Cycle Model with Heterogeneous Debt-Constrained Firms"
Ben S. Bernanke, Princeton University, Mark Gertler, New York University, and Simon Gilchrist, Boston University, "Credit-Market Frictions and Cyclical Fluctuations"
Discussants:
Russell Cooper, Boston University
Anthony Smith, Carnegie-Mellon University
Timothy Fuerst, Bowling Green State University
Session: Asymmetric Information in Markets
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: John Leahy, Boston University
Papers:
Josef Perktold, University of Chicago, "Information Aggregation in an Adverse Selection Model with Heterogeneously Informed Buyers"
In-Uck Park, University of Bristol, "Obsolescence and Competition"
Marteen Janssen and Santanu Roy, Erasmus University, "The Market for Lemons: Does the Possibility of Dynamic Trading Improve Market Performance?"
Rahul Guha, Cornerstone Research, and Michael Waldman, Cornell University, "Leasing Solves the Lemons Problem"
Discussants:
John Leahy, Boston University
Juuso T. Valimaki, Northwestern University
Session: Optimal Taxation in Dynamic Models
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Larry Christiano, Northwestern University
Papers:
Andrew Scott, London Business School, "Does Tax Smoothing Imply Smooth Taxes?"
Huw Lloyd-Ellis and Xiaodong Zhu, University of Toronto, "Fiscal Response to Shocks and Rising Public Debt"
Michelle Garfinkel and Jaewoo Lee, University of California - Irvine, "Political Discipline and the Dynamic Consistency of Policy"
Steven Cassou, Kansas State University, and Kevin Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Hoover Institution, Stanford University, "The Flat Tax and Investments in Physical versus Human Capital: A Study of Optimal Policy"
Discussants:
Larry Christiano, Northwestern University
Kevin Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Xiaodong Zhu, University of Toronto
Session: Productivity, R & D, Workers, and Firms
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Steven Berry, Yale University
Papers:
Lilyan E. Fulginiti and Richard K. Perrin, University of Nebraska, "Technical Change, Productivity, and Welfare under Distorted Prices"
Joachim Inkmann, University of Konstanz, "Horizontal and Vertical R & D Cooperation
Scott E. Atkinson, University of Georgia, and Daniel Primont, Southern Illinois University, "Stochastic Estimation of Firm Technology, Inefficiency, and Productivity Growth Using Distance Functions"
John Abowd, Cornell University, Francis Kramarz, INSEE-CREST, and David Margolis, CNRS, "High-Wage Workers and High-Wage Firms"
Discussants:
Gautam Gowrisankaran, University of Minnesota
Stefan Hochguertel, Tilburg University
Steven Stern, University of Virginia
Session: Nonlinear Time Series with Macroeconomic Applications
Date: January 3, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania
Papers:
Pok-sang Lam, Ohio State University, "A Markov Switching Model of GNP growth with Duration Dependence"
Yongmiao Hong, Cornell University, Jung Lu, York University, and Tom McCurdy, University of Toronto, "Unemployment Hysteresis as a Long-Memory Process"
A. Ronald Gallant, University of North Carolina, and George Tauchen, Duke University, "Reprojecting Partially Observed Systems with Application to Interest Rate Diffusions"
Simon M. Potter, University of California - Los Angeles, "Second Order Properties of Generalized Impulse Response Functions"
Discussants:
Simon M. Potter, University of California - Los Angeles
Masao Ogaki, Ohio State University
Mark Watson, Princeton University
Harold Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University
Session: Markets and Contracts in Development
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Debraj Ray, Boston University
Papers:
Abhijit Banerjee, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Maitreesh Ghatak, Harvard University, "Empowerment and Efficiency: The Economics of Tenancy Reform"
Lien H. Tran, Rand Corporation, "Formal vs. Informal Lending: How Significant is Information Asymmetry in Credit Markets in Vietnam?
Suzanne Gleason, Federal Trade Commission, "Public Goods and Intrafamily Resource Allocation: Female Child Survival in India"
Anjini Kochar, Stanford University, "The Effects of Adult Ill-Health and Income Uncertainty on Household Savings: Empirical Evidence from Rural Pakistan"
Discussants:
Debraj Ray, Boston University
Giorgio Topa, New York, University
Jonathan Morduch, Harvard University
Session: Computational Methods in Finance
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- DuSable Room
Presiding: Darrell Duffie, Stanford University
Papers:
Phelim Boyle, University of Waterloo, "Applications of Low Discrepancy Sequences to Finance Problems
Mark Broadie and Paul Glasserman, Columbia University, "A Stochastic Mesh Method for Pricing High-Dimensional American Options"
Paul Glasserman, Columbia University, and Steve Kou, University of Michigan, "Continuity Corrections for Discrete Path-Dependent Options"
Fernando Zapatero, ITAM, "Delta Hedging with Monte Carlo Simulation"
Discussants:
John Rust, University of Wisconsin - Madison
Patrick Jaillet, University of Texas - Austin
Darrell Duffie, Stanford University
Session: Derivative Pricing
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Robert McDonald, Northwestern University
Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Yubo Wang, and Francis Yared, University of Chicago, "Does the S&P500 Option Market Correctly Assess the Probabilities of S&P500 Index Movements?"
Alexander David, Federal Reserve Board, "Fluctuating Confidence in the Estimation of the Drift: Implications for Option Pricing, Risk Management and Implied Uncertainty Analysis"
Lin Chen, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, "Interest Rate Dynamics and Derivatives Pricing"
Discussants:
Robert McDonald, Northwestern University
David Bates, University of Iowa
Ming Huang, Stanford University
Session: Firm and Industry Dynamics
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Glenn MacDonald, University of Rochester
Papers:
Jonas Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and Jeffrey Campbell, University of Rochester, "Technology Choice and Employment Variability at Small and Large Manufacturing Plants"
Matthew Mitchell, University of Minnesota, "Information and the Adoption of New Projects"
Wenli Li, University of Minnesota, "Entrepreneurship and Government Subsidies under Capital Constraints: A General Equilibrium Analysis"
Luis Cabral, London Business School, "Entry Mistakes Happen"
Discussants:
Boyan Jovanovic, New York University
Glenn MacDonald, University of Rochester
Session: Measuring Productivity and Its Effects
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Dan Sullivan, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Papers:
Tim Conley, Northwestern University, and Bill Dupor, University of Pennsylvania, "A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Sectoral Productivity Growth"
Susantu Basu, Miles Kimball University of Michigan, and John Fernald, Federal Reserve Board, "Are Technology Improvements Expansionary?"
Marcello Estevao, Federal Reserve Board, and Saul Lach, Hebrew University, "Temporary Help Supply and Measurement Biases in Manufacturing Labor Productivity"
Discussants:
Michael Horvath, Stanford University
Jordi Gali, New York University
Dan Sullivan, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Session: The Provision of Public Education
Date and Time: January 3 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Requel Fernandez, New York University
Papers:
Elizabeth Caucutt, University of Rochester, "Educational Financing when There Are Peer Group Effects"
Peter Bearse, University of Tennessee, Gerhard Glomm, Michigan State University, and B. Ravikumar, University of Iowa, "Education Finance in a Multi-District Economy"
Thomas Downes, Tufts University, and David Figlio, University of Oregon, "School Finance Reforms, Tax Limits and Student Performance: Do Reforms Level Up or Dumb Down?"
Discussants:
Requel Fernandez, New York University
Richard Rogerson, University of Minnesota
Elizabeth Caucutt, University of Rochester
Session: Finances of the Family
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: Richard Blundell, University College London
Papers:
Stefan Hochguertel, Tilburg University, "The Impact of Background Uncertainty on Households' Portfolios"
Michelle White, University of Michigan, "Personal Bankruptcy: Who Files and Why?"
Ian Domowitz, Northwestern University, and Robert L. Sartain, Abt Associates Inc., "Determinants of the Choice between Chapter 7 Liquidation and Chapter 13 Rehabilitation at the Household Level"
Discussants:
Francis Kramarz, INSEE-CREST
Steve Cameron, Columbia University
Shiferaw Gurmu, University of Virginia
Session: Dynamic Private Information Economies
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Andrew Atkeson, University of Minnesota and University of Pennsylvania
Papers:
Harold Cole and Narayana Kocherlakota, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, "A Microfoundation for Incomplete Security Markets"
Cheng Wang, Carnegie-Mellon University and Bruce Smith, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and University of Texas - Austin, "Dynamic Risk Sharing with Costly State Verification"
Roberto Chang, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, "Recursive Analysis of Optimal and Time Consistent Policy"
Christopher Phelan, Northwestern University, and Ennio Stacchetti, University of Michigan, "Subgame Perfect Equilibria in a Ramsey Taxes Model"
Discussants:
Fernando Alvarez, University of Chicago
Andrew Atkeson, University of Minnesota
Session: Competition in Health Care Markets
Date and Time: January 3 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- DuSable Room
Presiding: Martin Gaynor, Carnegie Mellon University
Papers:
William Vogt, Carnegie Mellon University, "Preemptive Technology Adoption: The Example of Magnetic Resonance Imaging"
Daniel Kessler and Mark McClellan, Stanford University, "Is Hospital Competition Socially Wasteful?"
Barton Hamilton and Vivian Hamilton, Washington University - St. Louis, "The Impact of Hospital Mergers and Acquisitions on the Quality and Cost of Patient Care"
David Dranove, Carol Simon, and William White, Northwestern University, "Determinants of Managed Care Penetration"
Discussants:
Scott Stern, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Martin Gaynor, Carnegie Mellon University
Session: Wages and Employment (J2, E2)
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Andrew Oswald, University of Warwick, U.K.
Michael Lettau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Compensation Per Hour and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Panel of Jobs"
Lars Ljungqvist, Stockholm School of Economics, "How Do Layoff Costs Affect Employment?"
Melvyn Coles and Adrian Masters, University of Essex, "Retraining and Long-Term Unemployment in a Model of Unlearning by Not Doing"
Daron Acemoglu and Jorn-Steffen Pischke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "The Structure of Wages and Investment in General Training"
Discussants:
James P. Ziliak, University of Oregon
Andrew Oswald, University of Warwick
Session: Optimal Monetary Policy
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Lars E.O. Svensson, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm
Papers:
Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland, Federal Reserve Board, "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero"
Valerie Bencivenga, Bruce Smith, University of Texas - Austin, and Elisabeth Huybens, ITAM - Mexico, "What to Stabilize in the Open Economy: Some Notes on a Problem of Keynes"
Peter Clark, International Monetary Fund, Charles Goodhart and Hiazhou Huang, London School of Economics, "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in a Rational Expectations Model of the Phillips Curve"
Discussants
John Williams, Federal Reserve Board
Katheryn Dominguez, University of Michigan
Lars Svensson, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm
Session: High-Frequency Time Series
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Jeffrey Russell, University of Chicago
Papers:
Robert F. Engle and Joe Lange, University of California - San Diego, "Measuring, Forecasting and Explaining Time Varying Liquidity in the Stock Market"
Francis X .Diebold, University of Pennsylvania, "Evaluating Density Forecasts"
Eric Ghysels, Pennsylvania State University, and Joanna Jasiak, York University, "GARCH for Irregularly Spaced Financial Data: The ACD-GARCH Model"
Torben G. Anderson, Northwestern University, and Tim Bollershev, University of Virginia, "Answering the Critics: Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts"
Discussants:
Joel Hasbrouck, New York University
Eric Ghysels, Pennsylvania State University
Jeffrey Russell, University of Chicago
Session: The Scale and Scope of Government
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Per Krusell, University of Rochester
Papers:
Costas Azariadis and Luisa Lambertini, University of California - Los Angeles, "The Fiscal Politics of Big Governments"
Philippe Jehiel, CERAS and Suzanne Scotchmer, University of California - Berkeley, "Constitutional Rules of Exclusion in Jurisdiction Formation"
Andrew Daughety and Jennifer Reinganum, Vanderbilt University, "Settlement, Deterrence and the Economics of Punitive Damage Reform"
April Franco, University of Rochester, "Why Equal Weights in the Three Factor Formula Apportionment Method? A Game Theoretic Model of Tax Competition between the States"
Discussants:
Per Krusell, University of Rochester
Antonio Merlo, University of Minnesota
V.V. Chari, University of Minnesota
Thomas Holmes, University of Minnesota
Session: New Estimation Procedures I
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: Charles F. Manski, Northwestern University
Papers:
Charles F. Manski, Northwestern University, An Overview of Recent Developments in Estimation Procedures
Ekaterini Kyriazidou, University of Chicago, "Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Sample Selection Models"
Bo Honoré, Princeton University, and James Powell, University of California, Berkeley, "Pairwise Difference Estimators for Non-linear Models"
A. Ronald Gallant, University of North Carolina, and George Tauchen, Duke University, "The Relative Efficiency of EMM Estimators"
Discussants:
Stephen Cosslett, Ohio State University
Joel Horowitz, University of Iowa
Yacine Ait-Sahalia, University of Chicago
Session: Firm Structure, Trade, and Income Inequality
Date and Time: January 3, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Gordon Hanson, University of Texas - Austin
Papers:
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Stanford University, "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Reallocation, and the Timing of Adoption of Technological Innovations"
Matthew Slaughter, Dartmouth College, and Phillip Swagel, International Monetary Fund, "The Effect of Import Competition on Wages and Employment: Cross-Country Evidence"
David Hummels, University of Chicago, and Kei-Mu yi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "Vertical Specialization and the Growth of World Trade: How Much Double-Counting Is There?"
Discussants:
Pete Klenow, University of Chicago
Gordon Hanson, University of Texas - Austin
Michael Kouparitsas, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Session: Empirical Studies of Auctions
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- DuSable Room
Presiding: Robert Porter, Northwestern University
Papers:
Tong Li, Isabelle Perrigne, and Quang Vuong, University of Southern California, "Conditionally Independent Private Values in OCS Wildcat Auctions"
Indranil Chakraborty and George Deltas, University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign,
"A Two-Stage Approach to Structural Econometric Analysis of First Price Auctions"
Orley Ashenfelter, Princeton University, and Kathryn Graddy, London Business School, "An Empirical Study of Auction Sale Rates and Prices"
L. Brannmann, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Ukraine, and L. Froeb, Vanderbilt University, "Mergers, Cartels, Set-Asides and Bidding Preferences in Asymmetric Second-Price Auctions"
Discussants:
Phil Haile, University of Wisconsin
Frank Wolak, Stanford University
Robert Porter, Northwestern University
Catherine Wolfram, Harvard University
Session: Market Microstructure
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Ingrid Werner, New York Stock Exchange and Stanford University
Papers:
Kent Daniel, Northwestern University, David Hirshleifer, University of Michigan, and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, University of California - Los Angeles, "Investor Overconfidence, Risk and Cross-Sectional Predictors of Security Returns"
David Kelly and Douglas Steigerwald, University of California - Santa Barbara, "An Economic Model of Conditional Heteroskedasticity"
Sara Fisher Ellison, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Wallace P. Mullin, Michigan State University, "Gradual Incorporation of Information into Stock Prices"
Alvaro Sandroni, Northwestern University, "Recurrent Market Crashes in Frictionless Economies with No Intrinsic Uncertainty"
Discussants:
Kenneth Kavajecz, University of Pennsylvania
Ingrid Werner, New York Stock Exchange and Stanford University
Session: Wage and Nonwage Compensation: Theory, Evidence and Inequality
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 - 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Joshua Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Papers:
W. Bentley MacLeod, Boston College and University of Southern California, and Daniel Parent, Université de Sherbrooke -- "Job Characteristics and the Form of Compensation"
Brooks Pierce, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Compensation Inequality"
Anne Beeson Royalty, Stanford University, "The Composition of Compensation: The Effect of Tax Preferences and Tax Rates"
Craig Olson and Julie Whittaker, University of Wisconsin, "The Changing Distribution of Wages and Employer Provided Health Insurance among Full-time Married White Males"
Discussants:
Lawrence Katz, Harvard University
Joshua Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Henry Farber, Princeton University
Session: Monetary Policy Rules: Theory and Evidence
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Charles Evans, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Papers:
James D. Hamilton and Oscar Jorda, University of California - San Diego, "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target"
Athanasios Orphanides, Federal Reserve Board, "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real Time Data"
Soyoung Kim, University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign, "Monetary Policy Rules and Business Cycles"
Discussants:
Tao Zha, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Charles Evans, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Manuel Balmaseda, CEMFI, Madrid
Session: Evolution and Experimentation (C7)
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin - Madison
Papers:
In Ho Lee and Akos Valentinyi, University of Southampton, "Noisy Evolution without Mutation"
Giovanni Ponti, University College London, "Cycles of Learning in the Centipede Game"
David J. Cooper and John H. Kagel, University of Pittsburgh, Wei Lo, National Dong Hwn University, and Quingliang Gu, China Textile University, "An Experimental Study of the Ratchet Effect: The Impact of Incentives, Context and Subject Sophistication on Behavior"
Robert Battalio, Connel Fullenkamp and Rafael Tenorio, University of Notre Dame, "Assessing Individual Risk-Attitudes Using Field Data from Lottery Games"
Discussants:
John H. Nachbar, Washington University - St. Louis
Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin - Madison
Session: Skills and Technology
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Papers:
Boyan Jovanovic, New York University, "The Obsolescence of Capital"
Michael T. Kiley, Federal Reserve Board, "The Supply of Skilled Labor and Skill-Biased Technological Progress"
Graziella Bertocchi, University of Modena, and Michael Spagat, Brown University, "Mobility and Flexibility"
Nancy H. Chau, Southern Illinois University at Carbondale, and Oded Stark, University of Oslo and University of Vienna, "Human Capital Formation, Asymmetric Information, and the Dynamics of International Migration"
Discussants:
Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Robert Tamura, Clemson University
Session: Exchange Rates
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Robert Hodrick, Columbia University
Papers:
Young Hwan Byeon, Security Supervisory Board, Korea, and Masao Ogaki, Ohio State University, "An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates"
Vincentiu Covrig and Michael Melvin, Arizona State University, "Asymmetric Information and Price Discovery in the FX Market: Does Tokyo Know More about the Yen?"
Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan, "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?"
Discussants:
Robert Hodrick, Columbia University
Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan
Nelson Mark, Ohio State University
Session: Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- DuSable Room
Presiding: John B. Taylor, Stanford University
Papers:
Bennett T. McCallum and Edward Nelson, Carnegie-Mellon University, "Performance of Operational Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Structural Model"
Julio J. Rotemberg, Harvard University, and Michael Woodford, Princeton University, "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules for Monetary Policy"
Glenn Rudebusch, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and Lars E.O. Svensson, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm, "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting"
Discussants:
John B. Taylor, Stanford University
Mark Gertler, New York University
Frederic S. Mishkin, Columbia University
Session: Computational Methods in Economics
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Karl Shell, Cornell University
Papers:
Edward S. Prescott, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, "Computing Private Information Problems with Dynamic Programming Methods"
Manuel S. Santos, ITAM, "Accuracy of Solutions Using the Euler Equations Residuals"
John Rust, Yale University, "A Comparison of Policy Iteration Methods for Solving Continuous-State, Infinite-Horizon Markovian Decision Problems"
Larry Christiano, Northwestern University, and Jonas Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, "Algorithms for Solving Dynamic Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints"
Discussants:
Ken Judd, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Larry Christiano, Northwestern University
Jerry Bona, University of Texas - Austin
Session: Dynamic Economic Models
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Jess Benhabib, New York University
Papers:
Willi Semmler, New School of Social Research and University of Bielefeld, and Malte Sieveking, University of Frankfurt, "The Use of Extremal Vector Field Analysis for Studying Debt Dynamics"
Paulo Brito, Banco de Portugal and Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa, "Local Dynamics for Spherical Optimal Control Problems"
Lars Olson, University of Maryland, and Santanu Roy, Erasmus University, "On the Conservation of Renewable Resources with Stochastic Growth"
Peter Zadrozny, Real Time Econometrics Inc., "Optimal Forward Looking Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations"
Discussants:
Robert Becker, Indiana University - Bloomington
Salvador Ortigueira, ITAM, Mexico City
Jess Benhabib, New York University
Session: Endogenous Fluctuations
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: George Evans, University of Oregon
Papers:
Pietro Reichlin, Universita di Chieti, and Paolo Siconolfi, Columbia University, "Adverse Selection, Cleansing Effects and the Business Cycle"
Patrick Pintus, CEPREMAP, "Indeterminacy and Expectations-Driven Fluctuations with Variable Factor Utilization and Unemployment"
Jang-Ting Guo, University of California, Riverside, and Kevin Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, "Indeterminacy and Stabilization Policy"
Jasmina Arifovic, Simon Fraser University, "The Evolution of Sunspots"
Discussants:
George Evans, University of Oregon
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Federal Reserve Board
Session: Schools, Test Scores and Labor Market Outcomes
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: William Evans, University of Maryland
Papers:
Janet Currie and Duncan Thomas, University of California - Los Angeles, "Test Scores, Wages, and Schooling Attainments: Evidence from British Longitudinal Data"
John Tyler, Richard Murnane, and John Willett, Harvard University, "Estimating the Effect of the GED on the Labor Market Outcomes of Dropouts Using a Series of Natural Experiments"
Bernt Bratsberg, Kansas State University and Dek Terrell, Louisiana State University, "School Quality and Returns to Education of U.S. Immigrants"
Eric Hanushek, University of Rochester, John Kain and Steven Rivkin, University of Texas - Dallas, "The Measurement of School Quality"
Discussants:
Cecilia Rouse, Princeton University
William Evans, University of Maryland
Session: Modeling Time-Varying Expected Returns and Volatility
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Douglas G. Steigerwald, University of California - Santa Barbara
Papers:
Paul Harrison, Brandeis University, and Harold H. Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University, "Cyclical Variation in the Risk and Return Relation"
Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Allan Timmerman, University of California - San Diego, "Stock Returns in Recessions and Expansions: Assessing the Economic Value of Asymmetries"
Torben G. Anderson, Northwestern University, Hyung-Jin Chung and Bent E. Sorenson, Brown University, "Efficient Method of Moments Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study"
Douglas G. Steigerwald, University of California - Santa Barbara, "Mixing Models and Conditional Heterskedasticity"
Discussants:
David A Marshall, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Douglas G. Steigerwald, "University of California - Santa Barbara
Lawrence Harris, University of Southern California
Session: New Testing Procedures
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: A. Ronald Gallant, University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill
Papers:
A. Ronald Gallant, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, "An Overview of Recent Developments in Testing Procedures"
Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago, and Yanqin Fan, University of Windsor, "Partially Adaptive ICM Tests"
Marine Carrasco, Ohio State University - Columbus, "Tests with Standard distribution when a Nuisance Parameter is Present Only under the Alternative"
R.W. Parks, University of Washington, N.E. Savin, University of Iowa, and Allan Wurtz, Institute of Economics, University of Aarhus, "The Power of Hessian and Outer Product Based Wald and LM Tests"
Discussants:
Thomas Stoker, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Valentina Corradi, University of Pennsylvania
Hyungtaik Ahn, University of Wisconsin - Madison
Session: Structural Models of Individuals' Behavior
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Guido Imbens, University of California - Los Angeles
Papers:
Hamilton Lankford and James Wyckoff, SUNY - Albany, "An Analysis of the Determinants of Public-Private School Choice"
Michael Brien, Lee Lillard and Steven Stern, University of Virginia, "Cohabitation, Marriage and Divorce in a Model of Match Quality"
Kajal Lahiri and Jae Song, SUNY - Albany, "The Effects of Smoking on Health Using a Sequential Self-Selection Model"
Rajeev H. Dehejia, University of Toronto, "A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Program Evaluation"
Discussants:
Derek Neal, University of Chicago
Pravin Trivedi, University of Indiana - Bloomington
Michelle White, University of Michigan
Session: Competition and Market Power
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- DuSable Room
Presiding: Garth Saloner, Stanford University
Papers:
Stanley S. Reynolds and Bart J. Wilson, University of Arizona, "Market Power, Price Markups and Capacity Investment under Uncertain Demand"
Morten Hviid, University of Warwick, and Greg Shaffer, University of Indiana, "Hassle Costs: The Achilles' Heel of Price-Matching Guarantees"
Yongmin Chen, University of Colorado, "Vertical Restraint on Price Negotiations"
Liang-Juo Huang, Ho-Mou Wu, National Taiwan University, "Endogenous Formation of Horizontal Mergers"
Discussants:
Garth Saloner, Stanford University
Kenneth Corts, Harvard University
David Sappington, University of Florida
Session: Dynamic Principal-Agent Theory (D7, J3)
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Andrew Daughety, Vanderbilt University
Papers:
Thomas Jeitschko, Texas A&M University, and Leonard Mirman, University of Virginia, "Information and Learning in a Principal-Agent Model"
Georges Dionne, HEC Montreal, and Charles Vanasse, University of Montreal, "The Role of Memory and Saving in Long-Term Contracting with Moral Hazard"
Charles Kahn, University of Illinois, and Theofanis Tsoulouhas, North Carolina State University, "Strategic Transmission of Information and Short-Term Commitment: An Empirical Evidence in Automobile Insurance"
Maitreesh Ghatak, University of Chicago, Massimo Morelli, Iowa State University, and Tomas Sjöström, Harvard University, "Moral Hazard and Overlapping Generations with Endogenous Occupational Choice"
Discussants:
Tracy Lewis, University of Florida
V.V. Chari, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session: Patents and R&D
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Jonathan Eaton, Boston University
Papers:
Jacques Cremer, IDI Universite des Sciences Sociales - Toulouse, and Suzanne Scotchmer, University of California - Berkeley, "Patent Design, R&D Incentives and Optimal Mechanism"
Joshua Gans, University of Melbourne, and Scott Stern, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Incumbency and the Incentives for R&D: Licensing the Gale of Creative Destruction"
Bruno Cassiman, Universitat Pompeu-Fabra, "Influence Activity and the Organization of Research and Development"
John Lerner, Harvard University, and Sauel Kortum, Boston University, "Stronger Protection or Technological Revolution: What is behind the Current Surge in Patenting?"
Discussants:
Peter Klenow, University of Chicago
Jonathan Eaton, Boston University
Session: Investment
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Jeff Campbell, University of Rochester
Papers:
Jason Cummins, New York University, Kevin Hassett and Stephen Oliner, Federal Reserve Board, "Investment Behavior, Internal Funds, and Observable Expectations"
Joao Gomes, University of Pennsylvania, "Financing Investment"
Francois Ortalo-Magne, London School of Economics, and Sven Rady, Stanford Business School, "Housing Market Fluctuations in a Lifecycle Economy"
Discussants:
Simon Gilchrist, Boston University
George Hall, Yale University
Jeff Campbell, University of Rochester
Session: Empirics of Growth
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: Paul Johnson, Vassar College
Papers:
Jess Benhabib, New York University, and Mark M. Spiegel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, "Cross-Country Regressions: Are Primitives All That Matter?"
Linda Harris Dobkins, Emory College, and Yannis M. Ioannides, Tufts University, "Spatial Interactions among U.S. Cities"
Anusua Datta and Hamid Mohtadi, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee, "Economic Growth and Convergence: A Time Varying Parameter Approach"
Bart Hobijn, New York University, and Philip Hans Franses, Erasmus University, "Asymptotically Perfect and Relative Convergence of Productivity"
Discussants:
Francesco Caselli, University of Chicago
Paul Johnson, Vassar College
Session: Applications of Semi- and Non-Parametric Methods
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Bruce Meyer, Northwestern University
Papers:
Richard Blundell, University College London, Martin Browning, McMaster University, and Ian Crawford, Institute for Fiscal Studies, "Nonparametric Engel Curves and Revealed Preference"
Buhong Zheng, University of Colorado, John P Formby, The University of Alabama, and W. James Smith, University of Colorado, "Inequality Orderings, Normalized Stochastic Dominance and Statistical Inference"
Pravin Trivedi, Partha Deb and Xing Ming, University of Indiana, "Semiparametric Estimation of Finite Mixture Models of Event Counts, with Application to Demand for Medical Care by Elderly"
Shiferaw Germu, University of Virginia, "Semiparametric Estimation of Hurdle Regression Models with an Application"
Discussants:
Jinyong Hahn, University of Pennsylvania
John Rust, Yale University
Christopher Taber, Northwestern University
Session: Innovation
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Boyan Jovanovic, New York University
Papers:
Kenneth Kletzer, University of California - Santa Cruz, "Growth with Endogenous Product Innovation and Differentiation"
Konstantina Kiousis, University of California - Los Angeles, "Efficiency-Enhancing Properties of Knowledge and Knowledge Spillovers: A Study Using Stochastic Frontier Methodology"
Chad Jones, Stanford University, "Population and Ideas" A Theory of Endogenous Growth"
Discussants:
Boyan Jovanovic, New York University
Michael Kremer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Session: General Equilibrium Theory
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Du Sable Room
Presiding: Aldo Rustichini, CentER, Tilburg University
Papers:
Alberto Bisin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Piero Gottardi, Uiversita di Venezia, "General Competitive Analysis with Asymmetric Information"
Alexander Kovalenkov, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, "On a Folk Strategy-Proof, Approximately Walrasian Equilibrium"
Ross M. Starr and Maxwell Stinchcombe, University of California - San Diego,
"Monetary Equilibrium with Pairwise Trade and Transaction Costs."
Antonio Manresa, Universtitat de Barcelona, "Can We Identify Walrasian Allocations?
Discussants:
Jan Werner, University of Minnesota
Aldo Rustichini, CentER, Tilburg University
Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa, Nuffield College, Oxford University
Session: Bounded Rationality and Organizations
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Eric Friedman: Rutgers University
Papers:
Tim Van Zandt, Princeton University, "Real-Time Decentralized Information Processing as a Model of Organizations with Boundedly Rational Agents"
Dimitri Vayanos, Stanford University, "Optimal Decentralization of Information Processing in the Presence of Synergies"
Bently MacLeod, Boston College and University of Southern California, "Complexity, Bounded Rationality and Heuristic Search
Discussants:
Eric Friedman, Rutgers University
Scott Page, California Institute of Technology
Lu Hong, Syracuse University
Session: Asset Pricing Puzzles
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Deborah Lucas, Northwestern University
Papers:
James M. Poterba and Scott J. Weisbenner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Capital Gains Taxation, Investor Trading Behavior, and the January Effect"
Erzo Luttmer, London School of Economics, " What Level of Fixed Costs Can Reconcile Asset Returns and Consumption Choices?
John Heaton and Deborah Lucas, Northwestern University, "Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk"
Atsushi Maki, Keio University, "A Solution to the Equity Premium and Risk-free Rate Puzzles: An Empirical Investigation Using Japanese Data"
Discussants:
Stanley Zin, Carnegie Mellon University
John Campbell, Harvard University
Session: Analysis of Government Programs for the Poor, Disabled and Injured
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Alan Krueger, Princeton University
Papers:
Laura Connolly and Elizabeth Davis, Oregon State University, and David Figlio and James Ziliak, University of Oregon, "The Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Economic Growth or Welfare Reform?"
Maury Gittleman, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Two-Parent Families on Welfare: An Analysis of AFDC-UP Spells"
Wilbert van der Klaauw, New York University, and Anuradha Rangarajan, Mathematica Policy Research, "Eligibility Criteria and the Work Disincentive Effects of Disability Insurance"
Anthony Barkume and John Ruser, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "New Evidence on Rate Regulation and Workers' Compensation Insurance Premiums"
Discussants:
Rebecca Blank, Northwestern University
Alan Krueger, Princeton University
Session: Panel Time Series
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, Michigan State University
Papers:
Min-Hsien Chiang and Chihwa Kao, Syracuse University, "On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data"
Peter Pedroni, Indiana University, "A Pooled Time Series Test for Convergence to Common Steady States in Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels"
David Bowman, Federal Reserve Board, "Efficient Tests for Autoregressive Roots in Panel Data"
Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago, and Timothy G. Conley, Northwestern University, "Nonparametric Covariance Matrix Estimation for Space-Time Random Fields"
Discussants:
Andrew Levin, Federal Reserve Board
Timothy G. Conley, Northwestern University
David H. Papell, University of Houston
Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, Michigan State University
Session: Quantitative Monetary Economics
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Jonas Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Papers:
Harold Cole, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and Lee Ohanian, University of Minnesota, "Shrinking Money and Monetary Business Cycles"
Chia-Ying Chang and Victor E. Li, Pennsylvania State University, "Money, Credit, and the Cyclical Behavior of Household Investment"
Kevin L. Reffett and Donald E. Schlagenhauf, Arizona State University, "Liquidity Effects and the Propagation of Shocks in a Stochastic Two-Agent Monetary Economy"
Discussants:
David Marshall, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Jonas Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
John Coleman, Duke University
Session: New Estimation Procedures II
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: Bo Honoré, Princeton University
Papers:
Bo Honoré, Princeton University, "An Overview of Recent Developments in Estimation Procedures"
Charles F. Manski, Northwestern University and John V. Pepper, University of Virginia, "Monotone Instrumental Variables"
Whitney Newey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Choosing the Number of Instrumental Variables"
Steven Garren, Shiferaw Gurmu, Paul Rilstone and Steven Stern, University of Virginia, "Nonparametric Survival Analysis"
Discussants:
Jinyong Hahn, University of Pennsylvania
Chunrong Ai, University of Florida, Gainesville
T. Scott Thompson, Department of Justice
Session: Imperfect Competition in Open Economy Macro Models
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Philip Lane, Trinity College
Robert Kollman, University of Paris 12, "International Financial Markets and Business Cycles: A General Equilibrium Approach with Money and Nominal Rigidities"
David Cook, Hong Kong University, "International Demand Spillovers"
Marcelo Barrios, Universidad Del Salvador, "Regional Integration, Scale Economies and Industry Location in the Mercosur"
Philip Lane, Trinity College, "Estimation of a Sticky-Price Intertemporal Model of the Current Account"
Discussants:
Philip Lane, Trinity College
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Federal Reserve Board
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Stanford University
Jordi Gali, New York University
Session: Contracts and Markets (JEL DO, J3)
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: W. Bentley MacLeod, Boston College and University of Southern California
Papers:
Luca Anderlini, Cambridge University, and Leonardo Felli, London School of Economics, "Costly Coasian Contracts"
Garey Ramey and Joel Watson, University of California - San Diego, "Contracts and Mediators"
Bart Taub, University of Illinois, and H. Chade, Arizona State University, "Segmented Risk Sharing in a Continuous-Time Setting"
Sandro Brusco and Matthew Jackson, California Institute of Technology, "The Optimal Design of a Market"
Discussants:
Tim Van Zandt, Princeton University
Joel Watson, University of California - San Diego
Session: Macroeconomics of Price Adjustment
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: John Leahy, Boston University
Papers:
Michael Dotsey and Robert King, University of Virginia, and Alexander Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, "Menu Costs, Staggered Price-Setting and Elastic Factor Supply"
Charles Fleischman, Federal Reserve Board, and Jonathan Parker, University of Michigan, "Empirical Evidence on Price Stickiness in the U.S."
Curtis Eberwein, McGill University, and Theodore To, University of St. Andrews, "Dynamic Price Adjustment and Oligopoly"
Discussants:
John Leahy, Boston University
Stephen Cecchetti, Ohio State University
Dennis Carlton, University of Chicago
Session: The Dynamics of Wages and Employment
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Patricia Anderson, Dartmouth College
Papers:
Marc Van Audenrode, Universite of Laval, and Jonathan Leonard, University of California - Berkeley, "Wages and Employment Dynamics"
Lee Lillard and Robert Reville, Rand, "Random Growth or Random Walk: New Testable Implications of the Life Cycle Human Capital Investment Mode"
Mark Berger, University of Kentucky, Dan Black, Carnegie Mellon University, Amitabh Chandra and Frank Scott, University of Kentucky, "Spouse-Provided Health Insurance and Early Retirement"
Daron Acemoglu and Joshua Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "The Effect of Firing Costs on Hiring: Evidence from the American UI System"
Discussants:
Patricia Anderson, Dartmouth College
Steve Pischke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Session: Nonlinear Time Series
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: Bruce Hansen, Boston College
Papers:
Joon Y. Park, Seoul National University, and Peter C.B. Phillips, Yale University, "Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series"
Mehmet Caner, Koc University, and Bruce Hansen, Boston College, "Estimation of Threshold in a GMM Framework"
Robert F. Engle and Aaron D. Smith, University of California - San Diego, "Endogenously Mean Reverting Stochastic Processes"
Martin Rozada, Boston University, and Jesus Gonzalo, Universidad Carlos III Madrid, "Inference and Estimation of Threshold Cointegrated Systems"
Discussants:
Bruce Hansen, Boston College
Jesus Gonzalo, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
A. Ronald Gallant, University of North Carolina
Svend A.F. Hylleberg, University of Aarhus
Session: Foundations of Economic Theory (C7)
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Peter Klibanoff, Northwestern University
Papers:
Lones Smith, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Rethinking Bargaining Theory"
Alison Watts, Vanderbilt University, "On the Formation of a Social Network"
Michael Mandler, Harvard University, "The Economics of Incomplete Preferences"
Marc Le Menestrel, INSEAD, "Consequential Rationality, Procedural Rationality and Optimal Equilibrium"
Discussants:
Deborah Minehart, Boston University
Peter Klibanoff, Northwestern University
Session: New Technical Developments in Econometrics
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: Whitney Newey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Papers:
Whitney Newey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "An Overview of Recent Technical Developments in Econometrics"
Patrick W.N. Marsh, University of York, "Direct Density Approximations"
Yuichi Kitamura, University of Minnesota - Minneapolis, "A Nonparametric Information Criterion for Dynamic Econometric Models"
Marcus Berliant and Sami Dakhlia, Washington University - St. Louis, "Sensitivity Analysis for Computable General Equilibrium Models in the Presence of Critical Equilibria"
Discussants:
Hidehiko Ichimura, University of Pittsburgh
Jeffrey Wooldridge, Michigan State University
John Rust, Yale University
Session: The Role of Government in Development
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Rohini Somanathan, Emory University
Papers:
Michael Kremer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Quantity-Quality Tradeoffs in Education: Evidence from a Prospective Evaluation in Kenya"
Dan Ben-David, Tel Aviv University, "Teach Your Children Well: Planting the Seeds of Education and Harvesting the Benefits of Trade"
Hadi Esfahani, University of Illinois, "Institutions, Organizations, and Performance in Infrastructure Sectors"
Se-Jik Kim, International Monetary Fund, Yong Jin Kim, Dongduck Women's University, and Zhaohui Chen, International Monetary Fund - Market and Government in Early Development"
Discussants:
Graziella Bertocchi, University of Modena
Rohini Somanathan, Emory University
Session: The Industrial Organization of Financial and Product Markets
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Robert Gertner, University of Chicago
Papers:
Michael J. Fishman and Kathleen M. Haggerty, Northwestern University, "Mandatory versus Voluntary Disclosure in Markets with Sophisticated and Unsophisticated Customers"
E. Fee and Charles Hadlock, University of Florida, "Management Turnover and Product Market Competition"
Jeremy Berkowitz and Richard M. Hynes, Federal Reserve Board, "Bankruptcy Exemptions and the Market for Mortgage Loans"
Christine Parlour and Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon University, "Competition in Loan Contracts"
Discussants:
Scott Schaefer, Northwestern University
Robert Gertner, University of Chicago
Michelle White, University of Michigan
Session: International Finance
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Kenneth A. Froot, Harvard University
Papers:
Peter F. Christoffersen and Lorenzo Giorgianni, International Monetary Fund, "Interest Rate Arbitrage in Currency Baskets" Forecasting Weights and Measuring Risk"
Marianne Baxter, University of Virginia, Urban Jermann, University of Pennsylvania, and Robert King, University of Virginia, "Risk and Return Properties of NIPA Components: An International Comparison"
Anil K. Bera and Sangwhan Kim, University of Illinois, "Testing Constancy of Correlation with an Application to International Equity Returns"
Karl N. Snow, Brigham Young University, "Is It Riskiness?: An Empirical Analysis of the Forward-Spot Differential"
Discussants:
Chris Telmer, Carnegie Mellon University
Kenneth Froot, Harvard University
Session: Macroeconomic Aspects of Labor Markets
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel --Burnham Room
Presiding: Hugo Hopenhayn, University of Rochester
Papers:
Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Robert Shimer, Princeton University, "Efficient Unemployment Insurance"
Joao Gomes, University of Pennsylvania, Jeremy Greenwood and Sergio Rebelo, University of Rochester, "Equilibrium Unemployment"
Andrew Oswald, University of Warwick, "A Conjecture on the Explanation for High Unemployment in the Industrialised Nations"
Discussants:
Hugo Hopenhayn, University of Rochester
Randall Wright, University of Pennsylvania
Edward Glaeser, Harvard University
Session: Auctions
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland
Papers:
Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland, "On Generalizing the English Auction"
Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, Duke University, "The Consequences of Information Revealed in Auctions"
Zvika Neeman, Boston University, "The Effectiveness of Simple Auctions"
Charles J. Thomas, Federal Trade Commission, "The Competitive Effects of Mergers between Asymmetric Firms"
Session: Repeated Games and Bargaining (C7)
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology
Papers:
Martin Cripps, University of Warwick, Eddie Dekel-Tabak, Northwestern University and Wolfgang Pesendorfer, Princeton University, "Reputation in Repeated Extensive Form Games"
Hans Haller, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and Roger Lagunoff, Georgetown University, "Markov Perfect Equilibria in Repeated Asynchronous Choice Games"
Bettina Klaus, Hans Peters and Ton Storcken, Maastricht University, "Strategy-Proof Division of a Private Good When Preferences Are Single-Dipped"
Nejat Anbarci and Constantinos Syropoulos, Florida International University, "Division Rules in Contests with Endogenously Determined Bargaining Sets"
Discussants:
Lones Smith, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology
Session: Models of Political Economy
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: Larry Jones, Northwestern University
Papers:
Marcel Boyer, University of Montreal, and Jean Jacques Laffont, University of Toulouse, "Toward a Political Theory of the Emergence of Environmental Incentive Regulation"
Antonio Merlo, University of Minnesota, Ayse Imrohoroglu, University of Southern California, and Peter Rupert, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, "On the Political Economy of Income Redistribution and Crime"
Enriqueta Aragones, University Pompeu Fabra, and Andrew Postelwaite, University of Pennsylvania, "Ambiguity in Equilibrium for Two-Party Electoral Competition"
Edward Bird, University of Rochester, "Risk and the Welfare State: New Empirical Evidence"
Discussants:
Larry Jones, Northwestern University
Daniel Diermeyer, Northwestern University
Session: Multinationals and Foreign Direct Investment
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: James Hines, Jr., Harvard University
Papers:
Jason G. Cummins, New York University, and Kevin A. Hassett, Federal Reserve Board, "The Giant Sucking Sound: Structural Estimates of Factor Substitution from Firm-Level Panel Data on Multinational Corporations"
David Figlio and Bruce Blonigen, University of Oregon, "The Effects of Direct Foreign Investment on Local Communities"
James Hines, Jr., Harvard University, "Capital Controls and Foreign Direct Investment"
Discussants:
Matthew Slaughter, Dartmouth College
Kei-Mu Yi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Jane Ihrig, University of Virginia