These are the sessions for January 5, 1998 Econometric Society Winter Meeting
Session: General Equilibrium Theory
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Du Sable Room
Presiding: Aldo Rustichini, CentER, Tilburg University
Papers:
Alberto Bisin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Piero Gottardi, Uiversita di Venezia, "General Competitive Analysis with Asymmetric Information"
Alexander Kovalenkov, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, "On a Folk Strategy-Proof, Approximately Walrasian Equilibrium"
Ross M. Starr and Maxwell Stinchcombe, University of California - San Diego,
"Monetary Equilibrium with Pairwise Trade and Transaction Costs."
Antonio Manresa, Universtitat de Barcelona, "Can We Identify Walrasian Allocations?
Discussants:
Jan Werner, University of Minnesota
Aldo Rustichini, CentER, Tilburg University
Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa, Nuffield College, Oxford University
Session: Bounded Rationality and Organizations
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Eric Friedman: Rutgers University
Papers:
Tim Van Zandt, Princeton University, "Real-Time Decentralized Information Processing as a Model of Organizations with Boundedly Rational Agents"
Dimitri Vayanos, Stanford University, "Optimal Decentralization of Information Processing in the Presence of Synergies"
Bently MacLeod, Boston College and University of Southern California, "Complexity, Bounded Rationality and Heuristic Search
Discussants:
Eric Friedman, Rutgers University
Scott Page, California Institute of Technology
Lu Hong, Syracuse University
Session: Asset Pricing Puzzles
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Deborah Lucas, Northwestern University
Papers:
James M. Poterba and Scott J. Weisbenner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Capital Gains Taxation, Investor Trading Behavior, and the January Effect"
Erzo Luttmer, London School of Economics, " What Level of Fixed Costs Can Reconcile Asset Returns and Consumption Choices?
John Heaton and Deborah Lucas, Northwestern University, "Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk"
Atsushi Maki, Keio University, "A Solution to the Equity Premium and Risk-free Rate Puzzles: An Empirical Investigation Using Japanese Data"
Discussants:
Stanley Zin, Carnegie Mellon University
John Campbell, Harvard University
Session: Analysis of Government Programs for the Poor, Disabled and Injured
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Alan Krueger, Princeton University
Papers:
Laura Connolly and Elizabeth Davis, Oregon State University, and David Figlio and James Ziliak, University of Oregon, "The Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Economic Growth or Welfare Reform?"
Maury Gittleman, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Two-Parent Families on Welfare: An Analysis of AFDC-UP Spells"
Wilbert van der Klaauw, New York University, and Anuradha Rangarajan, Mathematica Policy Research, "Eligibility Criteria and the Work Disincentive Effects of Disability Insurance"
Anthony Barkume and John Ruser, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "New Evidence on Rate Regulation and Workers' Compensation Insurance Premiums"
Discussants:
Rebecca Blank, Northwestern University
Alan Krueger, Princeton University
Session: Panel Time Series
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, Michigan State University
Papers:
Min-Hsien Chiang and Chihwa Kao, Syracuse University, "On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data"
Peter Pedroni, Indiana University, "A Pooled Time Series Test for Convergence to Common Steady States in Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels"
David Bowman, Federal Reserve Board, "Efficient Tests for Autoregressive Roots in Panel Data"
Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago, and Timothy G. Conley, Northwestern University, "Nonparametric Covariance Matrix Estimation for Space-Time Random Fields"
Discussants:
Andrew Levin, Federal Reserve Board
Timothy G. Conley, Northwestern University
David H. Papell, University of Houston
Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, Michigan State University
Session: Quantitative Monetary Economics
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Jonas Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Papers:
Harold Cole, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and Lee Ohanian, University of Minnesota, "Shrinking Money and Monetary Business Cycles"
Chia-Ying Chang and Victor E. Li, Pennsylvania State University, "Money, Credit, and the Cyclical Behavior of Household Investment"
Kevin L. Reffett and Donald E. Schlagenhauf, Arizona State University, "Liquidity Effects and the Propagation of Shocks in a Stochastic Two-Agent Monetary Economy"
Discussants:
David Marshall, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Jonas Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
John Coleman, Duke University
Session: New Estimation Procedures II
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: Bo Honoré, Princeton University
Papers:
Bo Honoré, Princeton University, "An Overview of Recent Developments in Estimation Procedures"
Charles F. Manski, Northwestern University and John V. Pepper, University of Virginia, "Monotone Instrumental Variables"
Whitney Newey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Choosing the Number of Instrumental Variables"
Steven Garren, Shiferaw Gurmu, Paul Rilstone and Steven Stern, University of Virginia, "Nonparametric Survival Analysis"
Discussants:
Jinyong Hahn, University of Pennsylvania
Chunrong Ai, University of Florida, Gainesville
T. Scott Thompson, Department of Justice
Session: Imperfect Competition in Open Economy Macro Models
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Philip Lane, Trinity College
Robert Kollman, University of Paris 12, "International Financial Markets and Business Cycles: A General Equilibrium Approach with Money and Nominal Rigidities"
David Cook, Hong Kong University, "International Demand Spillovers"
Marcelo Barrios, Universidad Del Salvador, "Regional Integration, Scale Economies and Industry Location in the Mercosur"
Philip Lane, Trinity College, "Estimation of a Sticky-Price Intertemporal Model of the Current Account"
Discussants:
Philip Lane, Trinity College
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Federal Reserve Board
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Stanford University
Jordi Gali, New York University
Session: Contracts and Markets (JEL DO, J3)
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: W. Bentley MacLeod, Boston College and University of Southern California
Papers:
Luca Anderlini, Cambridge University, and Leonardo Felli, London School of Economics, "Costly Coasian Contracts"
Garey Ramey and Joel Watson, University of California - San Diego, "Contracts and Mediators"
Bart Taub, University of Illinois, and H. Chade, Arizona State University, "Segmented Risk Sharing in a Continuous-Time Setting"
Sandro Brusco and Matthew Jackson, California Institute of Technology, "The Optimal Design of a Market"
Discussants:
Tim Van Zandt, Princeton University
Joel Watson, University of California - San Diego
Session: Macroeconomics of Price Adjustment
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: John Leahy, Boston University
Papers:
Michael Dotsey and Robert King, University of Virginia, and Alexander Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, "Menu Costs, Staggered Price-Setting and Elastic Factor Supply"
Charles Fleischman, Federal Reserve Board, and Jonathan Parker, University of Michigan, "Empirical Evidence on Price Stickiness in the U.S."
Curtis Eberwein, McGill University, and Theodore To, University of St. Andrews, "Dynamic Price Adjustment and Oligopoly"
Discussants:
John Leahy, Boston University
Stephen Cecchetti, Ohio State University
Dennis Carlton, University of Chicago
Session: The Dynamics of Wages and Employment
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Patricia Anderson, Dartmouth College
Papers:
Marc Van Audenrode, Universite of Laval, and Jonathan Leonard, University of California - Berkeley, "Wages and Employment Dynamics"
Lee Lillard and Robert Reville, Rand, "Random Growth or Random Walk: New Testable Implications of the Life Cycle Human Capital Investment Mode"
Mark Berger, University of Kentucky, Dan Black, Carnegie Mellon University, Amitabh Chandra and Frank Scott, University of Kentucky, "Spouse-Provided Health Insurance and Early Retirement"
Daron Acemoglu and Joshua Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "The Effect of Firing Costs on Hiring: Evidence from the American UI System"
Discussants:
Patricia Anderson, Dartmouth College
Steve Pischke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Session: Nonlinear Time Series
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: Bruce Hansen, Boston College
Papers:
Joon Y. Park, Seoul National University, and Peter C.B. Phillips, Yale University, "Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series"
Mehmet Caner, Koc University, and Bruce Hansen, Boston College, "Estimation of Threshold in a GMM Framework"
Robert F. Engle and Aaron D. Smith, University of California - San Diego, "Endogenously Mean Reverting Stochastic Processes"
Martin Rozada, Boston University, and Jesus Gonzalo, Universidad Carlos III Madrid, "Inference and Estimation of Threshold Cointegrated Systems"
Discussants:
Bruce Hansen, Boston College
Jesus Gonzalo, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
A. Ronald Gallant, University of North Carolina
Svend A.F. Hylleberg, University of Aarhus
Session: Foundations of Economic Theory (C7)
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Peter Klibanoff, Northwestern University
Papers:
Lones Smith, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Rethinking Bargaining Theory"
Alison Watts, Vanderbilt University, "On the Formation of a Social Network"
Michael Mandler, Harvard University, "The Economics of Incomplete Preferences"
Marc Le Menestrel, INSEAD, "Consequential Rationality, Procedural Rationality and Optimal Equilibrium"
Discussants:
Deborah Minehart, Boston University
Peter Klibanoff, Northwestern University
Session: New Technical Developments in Econometrics
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: Whitney Newey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Papers:
Whitney Newey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "An Overview of Recent Technical Developments in Econometrics"
Patrick W.N. Marsh, University of York, "Direct Density Approximations"
Yuichi Kitamura, University of Minnesota - Minneapolis, "A Nonparametric Information Criterion for Dynamic Econometric Models"
Marcus Berliant and Sami Dakhlia, Washington University - St. Louis, "Sensitivity Analysis for Computable General Equilibrium Models in the Presence of Critical Equilibria"
Discussants:
Hidehiko Ichimura, University of Pittsburgh
Jeffrey Wooldridge, Michigan State University
John Rust, Yale University
Session: The Role of Government in Development
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Rohini Somanathan, Emory University
Papers:
Michael Kremer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Quantity-Quality Tradeoffs in Education: Evidence from a Prospective Evaluation in Kenya"
Dan Ben-David, Tel Aviv University, "Teach Your Children Well: Planting the Seeds of Education and Harvesting the Benefits of Trade"
Hadi Esfahani, University of Illinois, "Institutions, Organizations, and Performance in Infrastructure Sectors"
Se-Jik Kim, International Monetary Fund, Yong Jin Kim, Dongduck Women's University, and Zhaohui Chen, International Monetary Fund - Market and Government in Early Development"
Discussants:
Graziella Bertocchi, University of Modena
Rohini Somanathan, Emory University
Session: The Industrial Organization of Financial and Product Markets
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Robert Gertner, University of Chicago
Papers:
Michael J. Fishman and Kathleen M. Haggerty, Northwestern University, "Mandatory versus Voluntary Disclosure in Markets with Sophisticated and Unsophisticated Customers"
E. Fee and Charles Hadlock, University of Florida, "Management Turnover and Product Market Competition"
Jeremy Berkowitz and Richard M. Hynes, Federal Reserve Board, "Bankruptcy Exemptions and the Market for Mortgage Loans"
Christine Parlour and Uday Rajan, Carnegie Mellon University, "Competition in Loan Contracts"
Discussants:
Scott Schaefer, Northwestern University
Robert Gertner, University of Chicago
Michelle White, University of Michigan
Session: International Finance
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Kenneth A. Froot, Harvard University
Papers:
Peter F. Christoffersen and Lorenzo Giorgianni, International Monetary Fund, "Interest Rate Arbitrage in Currency Baskets" Forecasting Weights and Measuring Risk"
Marianne Baxter, University of Virginia, Urban Jermann, University of Pennsylvania, and Robert King, University of Virginia, "Risk and Return Properties of NIPA Components: An International Comparison"
Anil K. Bera and Sangwhan Kim, University of Illinois, "Testing Constancy of Correlation with an Application to International Equity Returns"
Karl N. Snow, Brigham Young University, "Is It Riskiness?: An Empirical Analysis of the Forward-Spot Differential"
Discussants:
Chris Telmer, Carnegie Mellon University
Kenneth Froot, Harvard University
Session: Macroeconomic Aspects of Labor Markets
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel --Burnham Room
Presiding: Hugo Hopenhayn, University of Rochester
Papers:
Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Robert Shimer, Princeton University, "Efficient Unemployment Insurance"
Joao Gomes, University of Pennsylvania, Jeremy Greenwood and Sergio Rebelo, University of Rochester, "Equilibrium Unemployment"
Andrew Oswald, University of Warwick, "A Conjecture on the Explanation for High Unemployment in the Industrialised Nations"
Discussants:
Hugo Hopenhayn, University of Rochester
Randall Wright, University of Pennsylvania
Edward Glaeser, Harvard University
Session: Auctions
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland
Papers:
Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland, "On Generalizing the English Auction"
Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, Duke University, "The Consequences of Information Revealed in Auctions"
Zvika Neeman, Boston University, "The Effectiveness of Simple Auctions"
Charles J. Thomas, Federal Trade Commission, "The Competitive Effects of Mergers between Asymmetric Firms"
Session: Repeated Games and Bargaining (C7)
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology
Papers:
Martin Cripps, University of Warwick, Eddie Dekel-Tabak, Northwestern University and Wolfgang Pesendorfer, Princeton University, "Reputation in Repeated Extensive Form Games"
Hans Haller, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and Roger Lagunoff, Georgetown University, "Markov Perfect Equilibria in Repeated Asynchronous Choice Games"
Bettina Klaus, Hans Peters and Ton Storcken, Maastricht University, "Strategy-Proof Division of a Private Good When Preferences Are Single-Dipped"
Nejat Anbarci and Constantinos Syropoulos, Florida International University, "Division Rules in Contests with Endogenously Determined Bargaining Sets"
Discussants:
Lones Smith, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Matthew O. Jackson, California Institute of Technology
Session: Models of Political Economy
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: Larry Jones, Northwestern University
Papers:
Marcel Boyer, University of Montreal, and Jean Jacques Laffont, University of Toulouse, "Toward a Political Theory of the Emergence of Environmental Incentive Regulation"
Antonio Merlo, University of Minnesota, Ayse Imrohoroglu, University of Southern California, and Peter Rupert, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, "On the Political Economy of Income Redistribution and Crime"
Enriqueta Aragones, University Pompeu Fabra, and Andrew Postelwaite, University of Pennsylvania, "Ambiguity in Equilibrium for Two-Party Electoral Competition"
Edward Bird, University of Rochester, "Risk and the Welfare State: New Empirical Evidence"
Discussants:
Larry Jones, Northwestern University
Daniel Diermeyer, Northwestern University
Session: Multinationals and Foreign Direct Investment
Date and Time: January 5, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: James Hines, Jr., Harvard University
Papers:
Jason G. Cummins, New York University, and Kevin A. Hassett, Federal Reserve Board, "The Giant Sucking Sound: Structural Estimates of Factor Substitution from Firm-Level Panel Data on Multinational Corporations"
David Figlio and Bruce Blonigen, University of Oregon, "The Effects of Direct Foreign Investment on Local Communities"
James Hines, Jr., Harvard University, "Capital Controls and Foreign Direct Investment"
Discussants:
Matthew Slaughter, Dartmouth College
Kei-Mu Yi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Jane Ihrig, University of Virginia