January 4th sessions for the Econometric Society
Session: Empirical Studies of Auctions
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- DuSable Room
Presiding: Robert Porter, Northwestern University
Papers:
Tong Li, Isabelle Perrigne, and Quang Vuong, University of Southern California, "Conditionally Independent Private Values in OCS Wildcat Auctions"
Indranil Chakraborty and George Deltas, University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign,
"A Two-Stage Approach to Structural Econometric Analysis of First Price Auctions"
Orley Ashenfelter, Princeton University, and Kathryn Graddy, London Business School, "An Empirical Study of Auction Sale Rates and Prices"
L. Brannmann, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Ukraine, and L. Froeb, Vanderbilt University, "Mergers, Cartels, Set-Asides and Bidding Preferences in Asymmetric Second-Price Auctions"
Discussants:
Phil Haile, University of Wisconsin
Frank Wolak, Stanford University
Robert Porter, Northwestern University
Catherine Wolfram, Harvard University
Session: Market Microstructure
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Ingrid Werner, New York Stock Exchange and Stanford University
Papers:
Kent Daniel, Northwestern University, David Hirshleifer, University of Michigan, and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, University of California - Los Angeles, "Investor Overconfidence, Risk and Cross-Sectional Predictors of Security Returns"
David Kelly and Douglas Steigerwald, University of California - Santa Barbara, "An Economic Model of Conditional Heteroskedasticity"
Sara Fisher Ellison, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Wallace P. Mullin, Michigan State University, "Gradual Incorporation of Information into Stock Prices"
Alvaro Sandroni, Northwestern University, "Recurrent Market Crashes in Frictionless Economies with No Intrinsic Uncertainty"
Discussants:
Kenneth Kavajecz, University of Pennsylvania
Ingrid Werner, New York Stock Exchange and Stanford University
Session: Wage and Nonwage Compensation: Theory, Evidence and Inequality
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 - 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Joshua Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Papers:
W. Bentley MacLeod, Boston College and University of Southern California, and Daniel Parent, Université de Sherbrooke -- "Job Characteristics and the Form of Compensation"
Brooks Pierce, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Compensation Inequality"
Anne Beeson Royalty, Stanford University, "The Composition of Compensation: The Effect of Tax Preferences and Tax Rates"
Craig Olson and Julie Whittaker, University of Wisconsin, "The Changing Distribution of Wages and Employer Provided Health Insurance among Full-time Married White Males"
Discussants:
Lawrence Katz, Harvard University
Joshua Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Henry Farber, Princeton University
Session: Monetary Policy Rules: Theory and Evidence
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Charles Evans, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Papers:
James D. Hamilton and Oscar Jorda, University of California - San Diego, "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target"
Athanasios Orphanides, Federal Reserve Board, "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real Time Data"
Soyoung Kim, University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign, "Monetary Policy Rules and Business Cycles"
Discussants:
Tao Zha, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Charles Evans, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Manuel Balmaseda, CEMFI, Madrid
Session: Evolution and Experimentation (C7)
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin - Madison
Papers:
In Ho Lee and Akos Valentinyi, University of Southampton, "Noisy Evolution without Mutation"
Giovanni Ponti, University College London, "Cycles of Learning in the Centipede Game"
David J. Cooper and John H. Kagel, University of Pittsburgh, Wei Lo, National Dong Hwn University, and Quingliang Gu, China Textile University, "An Experimental Study of the Ratchet Effect: The Impact of Incentives, Context and Subject Sophistication on Behavior"
Robert Battalio, Connel Fullenkamp and Rafael Tenorio, University of Notre Dame, "Assessing Individual Risk-Attitudes Using Field Data from Lottery Games"
Discussants:
John H. Nachbar, Washington University - St. Louis
Larry Samuelson, University of Wisconsin - Madison
Session: Skills and Technology
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Papers:
Boyan Jovanovic, New York University, "The Obsolescence of Capital"
Michael T. Kiley, Federal Reserve Board, "The Supply of Skilled Labor and Skill-Biased Technological Progress"
Graziella Bertocchi, University of Modena, and Michael Spagat, Brown University, "Mobility and Flexibility"
Nancy H. Chau, Southern Illinois University at Carbondale, and Oded Stark, University of Oslo and University of Vienna, "Human Capital Formation, Asymmetric Information, and the Dynamics of International Migration"
Discussants:
Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Robert Tamura, Clemson University
Session: Exchange Rates
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 8:00 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Robert Hodrick, Columbia University
Papers:
Young Hwan Byeon, Security Supervisory Board, Korea, and Masao Ogaki, Ohio State University, "An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates"
Vincentiu Covrig and Michael Melvin, Arizona State University, "Asymmetric Information and Price Discovery in the FX Market: Does Tokyo Know More about the Yen?"
Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan, "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?"
Discussants:
Robert Hodrick, Columbia University
Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan
Nelson Mark, Ohio State University
Session: Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- DuSable Room
Presiding: John B. Taylor, Stanford University
Papers:
Bennett T. McCallum and Edward Nelson, Carnegie-Mellon University, "Performance of Operational Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Structural Model"
Julio J. Rotemberg, Harvard University, and Michael Woodford, Princeton University, "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules for Monetary Policy"
Glenn Rudebusch, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and Lars E.O. Svensson, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm, "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting"
Discussants:
John B. Taylor, Stanford University
Mark Gertler, New York University
Frederic S. Mishkin, Columbia University
Session: Computational Methods in Economics
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Karl Shell, Cornell University
Papers:
Edward S. Prescott, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, "Computing Private Information Problems with Dynamic Programming Methods"
Manuel S. Santos, ITAM, "Accuracy of Solutions Using the Euler Equations Residuals"
John Rust, Yale University, "A Comparison of Policy Iteration Methods for Solving Continuous-State, Infinite-Horizon Markovian Decision Problems"
Larry Christiano, Northwestern University, and Jonas Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, "Algorithms for Solving Dynamic Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints"
Discussants:
Ken Judd, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Larry Christiano, Northwestern University
Jerry Bona, University of Texas - Austin
Session: Dynamic Economic Models
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Jess Benhabib, New York University
Papers:
Willi Semmler, New School of Social Research and University of Bielefeld, and Malte Sieveking, University of Frankfurt, "The Use of Extremal Vector Field Analysis for Studying Debt Dynamics"
Paulo Brito, Banco de Portugal and Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa, "Local Dynamics for Spherical Optimal Control Problems"
Lars Olson, University of Maryland, and Santanu Roy, Erasmus University, "On the Conservation of Renewable Resources with Stochastic Growth"
Peter Zadrozny, Real Time Econometrics Inc., "Optimal Forward Looking Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations"
Discussants:
Robert Becker, Indiana University - Bloomington
Salvador Ortigueira, ITAM, Mexico City
Jess Benhabib, New York University
Session: Endogenous Fluctuations
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: George Evans, University of Oregon
Papers:
Pietro Reichlin, Universita di Chieti, and Paolo Siconolfi, Columbia University, "Adverse Selection, Cleansing Effects and the Business Cycle"
Patrick Pintus, CEPREMAP, "Indeterminacy and Expectations-Driven Fluctuations with Variable Factor Utilization and Unemployment"
Jang-Ting Guo, University of California, Riverside, and Kevin Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, "Indeterminacy and Stabilization Policy"
Jasmina Arifovic, Simon Fraser University, "The Evolution of Sunspots"
Discussants:
George Evans, University of Oregon
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Federal Reserve Board
Session: Schools, Test Scores and Labor Market Outcomes
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: William Evans, University of Maryland
Papers:
Janet Currie and Duncan Thomas, University of California - Los Angeles, "Test Scores, Wages, and Schooling Attainments: Evidence from British Longitudinal Data"
John Tyler, Richard Murnane, and John Willett, Harvard University, "Estimating the Effect of the GED on the Labor Market Outcomes of Dropouts Using a Series of Natural Experiments"
Bernt Bratsberg, Kansas State University and Dek Terrell, Louisiana State University, "School Quality and Returns to Education of U.S. Immigrants"
Eric Hanushek, University of Rochester, John Kain and Steven Rivkin, University of Texas - Dallas, "The Measurement of School Quality"
Discussants:
Cecilia Rouse, Princeton University
William Evans, University of Maryland
Session: Modeling Time-Varying Expected Returns and Volatility
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Douglas G. Steigerwald, University of California - Santa Barbara
Papers:
Paul Harrison, Brandeis University, and Harold H. Zhang, Carnegie Mellon University, "Cyclical Variation in the Risk and Return Relation"
Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Allan Timmerman, University of California - San Diego, "Stock Returns in Recessions and Expansions: Assessing the Economic Value of Asymmetries"
Torben G. Anderson, Northwestern University, Hyung-Jin Chung and Bent E. Sorenson, Brown University, "Efficient Method of Moments Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study"
Douglas G. Steigerwald, University of California - Santa Barbara, "Mixing Models and Conditional Heterskedasticity"
Discussants:
David A Marshall, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Douglas G. Steigerwald, "University of California - Santa Barbara
Lawrence Harris, University of Southern California
Session: New Testing Procedures
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Ogden Room
Presiding: A. Ronald Gallant, University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill
Papers:
A. Ronald Gallant, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, "An Overview of Recent Developments in Testing Procedures"
Xiaohong Chen, University of Chicago, and Yanqin Fan, University of Windsor, "Partially Adaptive ICM Tests"
Marine Carrasco, Ohio State University - Columbus, "Tests with Standard distribution when a Nuisance Parameter is Present Only under the Alternative"
R.W. Parks, University of Washington, N.E. Savin, University of Iowa, and Allan Wurtz, Institute of Economics, University of Aarhus, "The Power of Hessian and Outer Product Based Wald and LM Tests"
Discussants:
Thomas Stoker, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Valentina Corradi, University of Pennsylvania
Hyungtaik Ahn, University of Wisconsin - Madison
Session: Structural Models of Individuals' Behavior
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 10:15 a.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Guido Imbens, University of California - Los Angeles
Papers:
Hamilton Lankford and James Wyckoff, SUNY - Albany, "An Analysis of the Determinants of Public-Private School Choice"
Michael Brien, Lee Lillard and Steven Stern, University of Virginia, "Cohabitation, Marriage and Divorce in a Model of Match Quality"
Kajal Lahiri and Jae Song, SUNY - Albany, "The Effects of Smoking on Health Using a Sequential Self-Selection Model"
Rajeev H. Dehejia, University of Toronto, "A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Program Evaluation"
Discussants:
Derek Neal, University of Chicago
Pravin Trivedi, University of Indiana - Bloomington
Michelle White, University of Michigan
Session: Competition and Market Power
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- DuSable Room
Presiding: Garth Saloner, Stanford University
Papers:
Stanley S. Reynolds and Bart J. Wilson, University of Arizona, "Market Power, Price Markups and Capacity Investment under Uncertain Demand"
Morten Hviid, University of Warwick, and Greg Shaffer, University of Indiana, "Hassle Costs: The Achilles' Heel of Price-Matching Guarantees"
Yongmin Chen, University of Colorado, "Vertical Restraint on Price Negotiations"
Liang-Juo Huang, Ho-Mou Wu, National Taiwan University, "Endogenous Formation of Horizontal Mergers"
Discussants:
Garth Saloner, Stanford University
Kenneth Corts, Harvard University
David Sappington, University of Florida
Session: Dynamic Principal-Agent Theory (D7, J3)
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Field Room
Presiding: Andrew Daughety, Vanderbilt University
Papers:
Thomas Jeitschko, Texas A&M University, and Leonard Mirman, University of Virginia, "Information and Learning in a Principal-Agent Model"
Georges Dionne, HEC Montreal, and Charles Vanasse, University of Montreal, "The Role of Memory and Saving in Long-Term Contracting with Moral Hazard"
Charles Kahn, University of Illinois, and Theofanis Tsoulouhas, North Carolina State University, "Strategic Transmission of Information and Short-Term Commitment: An Empirical Evidence in Automobile Insurance"
Maitreesh Ghatak, University of Chicago, Massimo Morelli, Iowa State University, and Tomas Sjöström, Harvard University, "Moral Hazard and Overlapping Generations with Endogenous Occupational Choice"
Discussants:
Tracy Lewis, University of Florida
V.V. Chari, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Session: Patents and R&D
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- McCormick Room
Presiding: Jonathan Eaton, Boston University
Papers:
Jacques Cremer, IDI Universite des Sciences Sociales - Toulouse, and Suzanne Scotchmer, University of California - Berkeley, "Patent Design, R&D Incentives and Optimal Mechanism"
Joshua Gans, University of Melbourne, and Scott Stern, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Incumbency and the Incentives for R&D: Licensing the Gale of Creative Destruction"
Bruno Cassiman, Universitat Pompeu-Fabra, "Influence Activity and the Organization of Research and Development"
John Lerner, Harvard University, and Sauel Kortum, Boston University, "Stronger Protection or Technological Revolution: What is behind the Current Surge in Patenting?"
Discussants:
Peter Klenow, University of Chicago
Jonathan Eaton, Boston University
Session: Investment
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Burnham Room
Presiding: Jeff Campbell, University of Rochester
Papers:
Jason Cummins, New York University, Kevin Hassett and Stephen Oliner, Federal Reserve Board, "Investment Behavior, Internal Funds, and Observable Expectations"
Joao Gomes, University of Pennsylvania, "Financing Investment"
Francois Ortalo-Magne, London School of Economics, and Sven Rady, Stanford Business School, "Housing Market Fluctuations in a Lifecycle Economy"
Discussants:
Simon Gilchrist, Boston University
George Hall, Yale University
Jeff Campbell, University of Rochester
Session: Empirics of Growth
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Addams Room
Presiding: Paul Johnson, Vassar College
Papers:
Jess Benhabib, New York University, and Mark M. Spiegel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, "Cross-Country Regressions: Are Primitives All That Matter?"
Linda Harris Dobkins, Emory College, and Yannis M. Ioannides, Tufts University, "Spatial Interactions among U.S. Cities"
Anusua Datta and Hamid Mohtadi, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee, "Economic Growth and Convergence: A Time Varying Parameter Approach"
Bart Hobijn, New York University, and Philip Hans Franses, Erasmus University, "Asymptotically Perfect and Relative Convergence of Productivity"
Discussants:
Francesco Caselli, University of Chicago
Paul Johnson, Vassar College
Session: Applications of Semi- and Non-Parametric Methods
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Wright Room
Presiding: Bruce Meyer, Northwestern University
Papers:
Richard Blundell, University College London, Martin Browning, McMaster University, and Ian Crawford, Institute for Fiscal Studies, "Nonparametric Engel Curves and Revealed Preference"
Buhong Zheng, University of Colorado, John P Formby, The University of Alabama, and W. James Smith, University of Colorado, "Inequality Orderings, Normalized Stochastic Dominance and Statistical Inference"
Pravin Trivedi, Partha Deb and Xing Ming, University of Indiana, "Semiparametric Estimation of Finite Mixture Models of Event Counts, with Application to Demand for Medical Care by Elderly"
Shiferaw Germu, University of Virginia, "Semiparametric Estimation of Hurdle Regression Models with an Application"
Discussants:
Jinyong Hahn, University of Pennsylvania
John Rust, Yale University
Christopher Taber, Northwestern University
Session: Innovation
Date and Time: January 4, 1998 -- 2:30 p.m.
Place: Hyatt Hotel -- Horner Room
Presiding: Boyan Jovanovic, New York University
Papers:
Kenneth Kletzer, University of California - Santa Cruz, "Growth with Endogenous Product Innovation and Differentiation"
Konstantina Kiousis, University of California - Los Angeles, "Efficiency-Enhancing Properties of Knowledge and Knowledge Spillovers: A Study Using Stochastic Frontier Methodology"
Chad Jones, Stanford University, "Population and Ideas" A Theory of Endogenous Growth"
Discussants:
Boyan Jovanovic, New York University
Michael Kremer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology