Chair:   Philip Reny, p-reny@uchicago.edu, University of Chicago

Susan Athey, athey@mit.edu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Darrell Duffie, duffie_darrell@gsb.stanford.edu, Stanford University
John Ham, johnham@econ.ohio-state.edu, Ohio State University
Thomas Holmes, holmes@atlas.socsci.umn.edu, University of Minnesota
Peter Howitt, howitt@ecolan.sbs.ohio-state.edu, Ohio State University
Hidehiko Ichimura, h.ichimura@ucl.ac.uk, University College London
John Kagel, kagel@econ.ohio-state.edu, Ohio State University
Kala Krishna, kmk4@psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University
George Mailath,gmailath@mail.sas.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania
Charles Manski, cfmanski@nwu.edu, Northwestern University
Dilip Mookherjee, dilipm@bu.edu, Boston University
Roger Myerson, myerson@nwu.edu, Northwestern University
Carolyn Pitchik, pitchik@chass.utoronto.ca, University of Toronto
Ennio Stacchetti, ennio@umich.edu, University of Michigan
Nancy Stokey, n-stokey@uchicago.edu, University of Chicago
Jan Svejnar, svejnar@umich.edu, University of Michigan
Myrna Wooders, mwooders@chass.utoronto.ca, University of Warwick

Friday, January 5, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

Developments in Time Series Analysis   Sheraton-Gallier A & B 
Dynamic Models of Incentives   Sheraton-Edgewood A & B 
Impacts of Public Policies   Sheraton-Ellendale 
International Macro   Sheraton-Estherwood 
Learning and Rationality: Theory and Empirical Implications   Sheraton-Evergreen 
Spatial Markets   Sheraton-Crescent 

Friday, January 5, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

Contracts and Renegotiation   Sheraton-Edgewood A & B 
Developments in Econometric Analysis of Experimental and Nonexperimental Auction Data       Sheraton-Estherwood 
Empirical Analysis of the Family   Sheraton-Ellendale 
Labor and Development   Sheraton-Evergreen 
Non-Expected Utility and Time Inconsistency   Sheraton-Gallier A & B 
Topics in Game Theory   Sheraton-Crescent 

Friday, January 5, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

Auctions   Sheraton-Gallier A & B 
Developments in Microeconometric Analysis   Sheraton-Evergreen 
Information and Markets   Sheraton-Edgewood A & B 
Public Good Provision   Sheraton-Estherwood 
Trade and Productivity   Sheraton-Ellendale 
Uncertainty, Poverty and Health   Sheraton-Crescent 

Saturday, January 6, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

Empirical Analysis of High-Frequency Returns   Sheraton-Southdown 
Incentives, Mechanism Design   Sheraton-Estherwood 
Multi-Unit Demand Auctions: Recent Experimental Results   Sheraton-Edgewood A & B 
Macroeconomic Policy   Sheraton-Ellendale 
Monetary Policy I   Sheraton-Evergreen 
Productivity Analysis   Sheraton-Oakley 
Transitional Economics I -- Determinants and Effects of Privatization   Sheraton-Gallier A & B 

Saturday, January 6, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

Developments in Econometric Analysis of Model Selection and Testing   Sheraton-Estherwood 
Duration Models of the Labor Market   Sheraton-Oakley 
Financial Externalities   Sheraton-Evergreen 
Growth, Convergency and Trade   Sheraton-Crescent 
Learning in Games: Theory, Experiment, and Application   Sheraton-Gallier A & B 
Political Economics   Sheraton-Ellendale 
Trust and Procedural Fairness: Theory and Data   Sheraton-Edgewood A & B 

Saturday, January 6, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

Applied Game Theory   Sheraton-Ellendale 
Banking and Financial Intermediation   Sheraton-Edgewood A & B 
Empirical Issues in Business Cycles  Sheraton-Evergreen 
Fertility, Female Labor Participation and Schooling  Sheraton-Crescent 
International Trade: Theory   Sheraton-Estherwood 
R & D Spillovers, Patents   Sheraton-Gallier A & B 
The Effect of Public Policy on Welfare Participation   Sheraton-Oakley 

Sunday, January 7, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

Causal Inference with the Propensity Score Method   Sheraton-Edgewood A & B 
Contracting, Security Design, and Asset Valuation   Sheraton-Evergreen 
Contracts and Capital Flows   Sheraton-Ellendale 
Cooperative Game Theory   Sheraton-Crescent 
Developments in Econometrics of Continuous Time Stochastic Processes   Sheraton-Gallier A & B 
International Macro: Exchange Rates   Sheraton-Estherwood 

Sunday, January 7, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

Developments in Time Series Analysis   Sheraton-Southdown
Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition   Sheraton-Ellendale 
International Trade: Empirical   Sheraton-Estherwood 
Monetary Policy II   Sheraton-Evergreen 
New Developments in Structural Estimation  Sheraton-Edgewood A & B 
Political Economics   Sheraton-Crescent 
Transitional Economics II -- Applied Microeconometric Studies   Sheraton-Gallier A & B 

Sunday, January 7, 1:00 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.

Developments in Econometric Methods   Sheraton-Ellendale 
Fiscal Policy and Decentralization   Sheraton-Crescent 
Interjurisdictional Competition   Sheraton-Estherwood 
Life Cycle Models   Sheraton-Edgewood A & B 
Time Series Analysis   Sheraton-Evergreen 
Topics in Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory   Sheraton-Oakley 

Sessions

Saturday, January 6, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

FINANCIAL EXTERNALITIES
Organizer:  Darrell Duffie

Presiding: Joshua Lerner, Harvard University, jlerner@hbs.edu

David Robinson, pdrobins@gsbphd.uchicago.edu, and Toby Stuart, University of Chicago - Network Effects in the Governance of Strategic Alliances in Biotechnology

Viral Acharya, vacharya@stern.nyu.edu, New York University - Banks, Systemic Risk, and the Design of Prudential Regulation

Jôrge Kukies, pjkukies@gsbphd.uchicago.edu, University of Chicago - The Effects of Introducing a New Stock Exchange on the IPO Process

Discussants:

Joshua Lerner, jlerner@hbs.edu, Harvard University
Franklin Allen, allenf@wharton.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania
Mark Taranto, taranto@haas.berkeley.edu, University of California at Berkeley

Sunday, January 7, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

CONTRACTING, SECURITY DESIGN, AND ASSET VALUATION
Organizer:  Darrell Duffie

Presiding: Mark Garmaise, University of Chicago, fmgarmai@gsbfac.uchicago.edu

Nicolae Garleanu, and Lasse Pedersen, lasse@leland.stanford.edu, Stanford University - Liquidity and Security Design in Repeated Auction Markets

Peter DeMarzo, demarzo@haas.berkeley.edu, Stanford University, and Michael Fishman, Northwestern University - Optimal Long-Term Financial Contracting with Privately Observed Cash Flows

Navneet Arora, aroran@bschool.unc.edu, and Hui Ou-Yang, ou-yangh@bschool.unc.edu, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill - Closed-End Funds: A Dynamic Model of Premiums and Discounts

Discussants:

Ulf Axelson, ulf.axelson@gsb.uchicago.edu, University of Chicago
Mark Garmaise, fmgarmai@gsbfac.uchicago.edu, University of Chicago
Jennifer Carpenter, jcarpen@stern.nyu.edu, Stern School, New York University

Saturday, January 6, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF HIGH-FREQUENCY RETURNS
Organizer:   Darrell Duffie

Presiding: Darrell Duffie, Stanford University, duffie_darrell@gsb.stanford.edu

Massimo Massa, massimo.massa@insead.fr, INSEAD, and Andrei Simonov, andrei.simonov@hhs.se, Stockholm School of Economics - The Sneaky, the Sleepy, and the Skeptic: A Behavioral Model of Market Making Evidence of Strategic Behavior on the Treasury Bond Market

Torben Anderson, t-andersen@nwu.edu, Northwestern University, and Tim Bollerslev, boller@econ.duke.edu, Duke University, and Francis Diebold, fdiebold@mail.sas.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania, and Heiko Ebens, ebens@jhu.edu, Johns Hopkins University - The Distribution of Stock Return Volatility

Xeuzheng Bai, and Jeffrey Russel, jeffrey.russell@gsb.uchicago.edu, and George Tiao, University of Chicago - Beyond Merton's Utopia: Effects of Non-Normality and Dependence on the Precision of Variance Estimates Using High-Frequency Financial Data

Discussants:

Terry Odean, odean@dilbert.gsm.ucdavis.edu, University of California at Davis
Lars Hansen, l-hansen@uchicago.edu, University of Chicago
Jun Pan, junpan@Stanford.EDU, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Sunday, January 7, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

MONETARY POLICY II
Organizer:  Peter Howitt

Presiding: Peter Howitt, Brown University, howitt@ecolan.sbs.ohio-state.edu

Robert J. Tetlow, Robert.J.Tetlow@frb.gov, Federal Reserve Board - Uncertain Potential Output and Monetary Policy in a Forward-looking Model

Athanasios Orphanides, aorphanides@frb.gov, Federal Reserve Board - Activist Stabilization Policy and Inflation: The Taylor Rule in the 1970s

Esturo Shioji, shioji@ynu.ac.jp, Yokohama National University, and R. Anton Braun, GSIM, International University of Japan - Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan

Discussants:

Esturo Shioji, shioji@ynu.ac.jp, Yokohama National University 
Diana Weymark, diana.weymark@vanderbilt.edu, Vanderbilt University 
Robert J. Tetlow, Robert.J.Tetlow@frb.gov, Federal Reserve Board

Saturday, January 6, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

MONETARY POLICY I
Organizer:   Peter Howitt

Presiding: Robert J. Tetlow, Federal Reserve Board, Robert.J.Tetlow@frb.gov

In-Koo Cho, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Noah Williams, nwilliam@midway.uchicago.edu, University of Chicago, Thomas J. Sargent, Stanford University - Escaping Nash Inflation 

Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, rugemurf@crde.umontreal.ca, University of Montreal - Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences 

Diana N. Weymark, diana.weymark@vanderbilt.edu, Vanderbilt University - Inflation, Income Redistribution, and Optimal Central Bank Independence

Discussants:

Peter Howitt, howitt@ecolan.sbs.ohio-state.edu, Brown University 
Athanasios Orphanides, aorphanides@frb.gov, Federal Reserve Board
Noah Williams, nwilliam@midway.uchicago.edu, University of Chicago 

Saturday, January 6, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

BANKING AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
Organizer:   Peter Howitt

Presiding: Athanasios Orphanides, Federal Reserve Board, aorphanides@frb.gov

William Roberds, william.roberds@atl.frb.org, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Charles M. Kahn, and James McAndrews - Settlement Risk under Gross and Net Settlement 

David Cook,  davcook@ust.hk, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology - Financial Fragility and the Credit Channel

Martin Schneider, mrts@troi.cc.rochester.edu, University of California, Los Angeles - Borrowing Constraints in a Dynamic Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management

Discussants:

Geoffrey R. Gerdes, geoffrey.r.gerdes@frb.gov, Federal Reserve Bank 
Simon Gilchrist, sgilchri@bu.edu, Boston University 
William Roberds, william.roberds@atl.frb.org, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 

Sunday, January 7, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

CONTRACTS AND CAPITAL FLOWS
Organizer:  Nancy Stokey

Presiding: Lee Ohanian, University of California, Los Angeles, ohanian@econ.ucla.edu

Vincenzo Quadrini, quadrini@econ.duke.edu, New York University, and Thomas Cooley, and Ramon Marimon - Optimal Financial Contracts with Limited Enforceability and the Macroeconomy 

Ayse Imrohoroglu, aimrohor@bus.usc.edu, and Krishna B. Kumar, kbkumar@usc.edu, University of Southern California - Capital Flows 

Michael Ben-Gad, mbg@bayou.uh.edu, University of Houston - Importing Human Capital: Calculating the Effects of Immigration Policy in the Two-Sector Endogenous Growth Model 

Discussants:

Urban Jermann, jermann@wharton.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania 
Matthias Doepke, mdoepke@midway.uchicago.edu, University of California, Los Angeles 
Lee Ohanian, ohanian@econ.ucla.edu, University of California, Los Angeles 

Sunday, January 7, 1:00 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.

TOPICS IN DYNAMIC MACROECONOMIC THEORY
Organizer: Nancy Stokey

Presiding: Jang-Ting Guo, University of California, Riverside, jangting.guo@ucr.edu

Thomas D. Tallarini, Jr., tomjr@noonan.gsia.cmu.edu, Carnegie-Mellon University - Who's Habit Is It Anyway? 

Shinichi Nishiyama, Congressional Budget Office, shinichi@cbo.gov, Measuring the Degree of Intergenerational Altruism by a Heterogeneous OLG Model with Bequests and Inter-vivos Transfers

Julio Davila, davilaj@econ.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania - Reducing Overlapping Generations Economies to Finite Economies 

Discussants:

Martin Lettau, martin.lettau@ny.frb.org, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 
Ayse Imrohoroglu, ayse@marshall.usc.edu, University of California, Los Angeles 
Jang-Ting Guo, guojt@mail.ucr.edu, University of California, Riverside 

Saturday, January 6, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

MACROECONOMIC POLICY
Organizer:  Nancy Stokey

Presiding: Varadarajan V. Chari, University of Minnesota, chari@res.mpls.frb.fed.us

Krishna B. Kumar, kbkumar@usc.edu, and Selahattin Imrohoroglu, University of Southern California, and Elizabeth M. Caucutt, University of Rochester - Does the Progressivity of Taxes Matter for Economic Growth? 

Eric M. Leeper, eleeper@indiana.edu, Indiana University, and David B. Gordon, Clemson University - Are Countercyclical Policies Counterproductive? 

James R. Hines, Jr., jrhines@umich.edu, University of Michigan and National Bureau of Economic Research - National Income and Government Action 

Discussants:

Varadarajan V. Chari, chari@res.mpls.frb.fed.us, University of Minnesota 
Christopher Otrok, cmo3h@virginia.edu, University of Virginia 
Austin Goolsbee, goolsbee@gsb.uchicago.edu, University of Chicago 

Saturday, January 6, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

EMPIRICAL ISSUES IN BUSINESS CYCLES
Organizer:   Nancy Stokey

Presiding: Ravi Jagannathan, Northwestern University, rjaganna@kellogg.nwu.edu

Christopher Otrok, cmo3h@virginia.edu, University of Virginia, and B. Ravikumar, and Charles H. Whiteman, University of Iowa - A Spectral Volatility Bound for Evaluating Business Cycle Models 

Barry Falk, bfalk@iastate.edu, Iowa State University, and Bong-Soo Lee, University of Houston - Revisiting the Phillips Curve with a Structural VAR 

Clive W. J. Granger, cgranger@ucsd.edu, and Neville Francis, University of California, San Diego, and Ruey Yau, ecos1021@mails.fju.edu.tw, Fu-Jen Catholic University - Forecasting Business Cycles with Long-Run Economic Relationships 

Discussants:

Ravi Jagannathan, rjaganna@kellogg.nwu.edu, Northwestern University 
Robert Rich, robert.rich@ny.frb.org, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 
Helle Bunzel, hbunzel@iastate.edu, Iowa State University 

Sunday, January 7, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION
Organizer:  Thomas Holmes

Presiding: George Steven Olley, Georgetown University, olleys@georgetown.edu

Steven Berry, steveb@econ.yale.edu, Yale University, and Ariel Pakes,Harvard University - Using First-Order Conditions to Estimate Dynamic Oligopoly Models 

James Levinsohn, jamesl@umich.edu, University of Michigan, and Amil Petrin, amil.petrin@gsb.uchicago.edu, University of Chicago - Estimating Production Functions Using Intermediate Inputs to Control for Unobservables 

Patrick Bajari, bajari@leland.stanford.edu, and C. Lanier Benkard, lanierb@leland.stanford.edu, Stanford University - Identification and Estimation of Random Coefficient Pure Hedonic Discrete Choice Models 

Discussants:

Matthew Shum, mshum@jhu.edu, Johns Hopkins University 
George Steven Olley, olleys@georgetown.edu, Georgetown University 
Andrew Ching, aching@econ.umn.edu, Ohio State University 

Friday, January 5, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

TRADE AND PRODUCTIVITY
Organizer: Thomas Holmes

Presiding: Thomas J. Holmes, University of Minnesota, holmes@atlas.socsci.umn.edu

Andrew B. Bernard, Dartmouth University, and Jonathan Eaton, Boston University, and 
J. Bradford Jenson, U.S. Bureau of the Census, and Samuel Kortum, kortum@bu.edu, Boston University - Plants and Productivity in International Trade 

Sanghamitra Das, Indian Statistical Institute, and Mark Roberts, mroberts@psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University, and James Tybout, Georgetown University - Micro Foundations of Export Dynamics 

Marc Melitz, mmelitz@econ.lsa.umich.edu, Harvard University - Firm Productivity Estimation in Differentiated Product Industries 

Discussants:

Matthew Mitchell, mitchell@econ.umn.edu, University of Minnesota 
Nina Pavcnik, Nina.Pavcnik@dartmouth.edu, Dartmouth College 
Nadia Soboleva, soboleva@chass.utoronto.ca, University of Toronto 

Friday, January 5, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

SPATIAL MARKETS
Organizer: Thomas Holmes

Presiding: Michael Mazzeo, Northwestern University

Jeffrey R. Campbell, jcampbe@midway.uchicago.edu, University of Chicago, and Hugo A. Hopenhayn, University of Rochester - Market Size Matters 

Mike Conlin, Syracuse University - An Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Divisionalization and Franchising on Competition 

Thomas J. Holmes, holmes@econ.umn.edu, University of Minnesota - Specialization of Cities and Local Demand: Some Evidence from the Wholesale Sector 

Janet S. Netz, netz@purdue.edu, Purdue University - Determinants of Product-Line Breadth, Density, and Location: The Personal Computer Industry 

Discussants:

Michael Mazzeo, mazzeo@nwu.edu, Northwestern University 
Francine Lafontaine, laf@bus.umich.edu, University of Michigan 
Emin Dinlersoz, enmd@troi.cc.rochester.edu, University of Houston 
Charles P. Himmelberg, cph15@columbia.edu, Columbia University 

Saturday, January 6, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

MULTI-UNIT DEMAND AUCTIONS: RECENT EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
Organizer:  John Kagel

Presiding: Dan Levin, Ohio State University, Levin.36@osu.edu

John Ledyard, jledyard@hss.caltech.edu, California Institute of Technology - Combined Value Auctions 

John H. Kagel, kagel@econ.ohio-state.edu, and Dan Levin, Levin.36@osu.edu, Ohio State University, and Scott Kinross, Buck Consulting - An Experiment Comparing Efficient Multi-Object Auction Mechanisms 

Ron Cummings, rcummings@gsu.edu, and Susan Laury, slaury@gsu.edu, Georgia State University, and Charles A. Holt, cah2k@virginia.edu, University of Virginia - Budget-Constrained Multi-Unit Procurement Auctions, with Applications to Irrigation Permit Repurchases 

Discussants:

Susan Athey, athey@mit.edu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Daniel R. Vincent, dvincent@wam.umd.edu, University of Maryland 
Jeroen Swinkels, swinkels@olin.wustl.edu, Washington University 

Saturday, January 6, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

TRUST AND PROCEDURAL FAIRNESS: THEORY AND DATA
Organizer:   John Kagel

Presiding: Axel Ockenfels, University of Magdeburg, axel.ockenfels@ww.uni-magdeburg.de

David Laibson, dlaibson@harvard.edu, and Edward Glaeser, eglaeser@harvard.edu, Harvard University and National Bureau of Economic Research, and Jose Scheinkman, joses@princeton.edu, Princeton University, and Christine Soutter, cls@wjh.harvard.edu, Harvard University - Measuring Trust 

Simon Gaechter, gaechter@iew.unizh.ch, University of St. Gallen, and Ernst Fehr, efehr@iew.unizh.ch, University of Zuerich - Do Incentive Contracts Crowd Out Voluntary Cooperation? 

Axel Ockenfels, axel.ockenfels@ww.uni-magdeburg.de, University of Magdeburg, and Gary Bolton,  geb3@psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University, and Jordi Brandts, Institut d' Analisi Econmica - Fair Procedures 

Discussants:

Bob Slonim, rls18@po.cwru.edu, Case Western Reserve University 
John Van Huyck, j-vanhuyck@tamu.edu, Texas A & M University 
Tim Cason, cason@purdue.edu, Purdue University 

Saturday, January 6, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

LEARNING IN GAMES: THEORY, EXPERIMENT, AND APPLICATION
Organizer:   John Kagel

Presiding: Charles Holt, University of Virginia, cah2k@virginia.edu

Charles Holt, cah2k@virginia.edu, and Jacob Goeree, jg2n@Virginia.EDU, University of Virginia - Stochastic Learning Equilibrium 

Yan Chen, yanchen@umich.edu, and Yurs Khoroshilov, ykhorosh@umich.edu, University of Michigan - Learning Under Limited Information 

Ernan Haruvy, haruvy@ie.technion.ac.il, and Ido Erev, and Doron Sonsino, Technion - The Medium Prizes Paradox: Evidence from a Simulated Casino 

Andrew Schotter, andy@rsage.org, and Yaw Nyarko, yaw.nyarko@nyu.edu, New York University - An Experimental Study of Belief Learning Using Elicited Beliefs 

Discussants:

Yan Chen, yanchen@umich.edu, University of Michigan 
Andrew Schotter, andy@rsage.org, New York University
Charles Holt, cah2k@virginia.edu, University of Virginia 
Ernan Haruvy, haruvy@ie.technion.ac.il,Technion 

Saturday, January 6, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

POLITICAL ECONOMICS*
Organizer:  Roger Myerson

Presiding: Roger Myerson, Northwestern University, myerson@nwu.edu

Nicola Persico, persico@ssc.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania, and Alessandro Lizzeri, lizzeri@princeton.edu, Princeton University - The Drawbacks of Electoral Competition 

Leonardo Felli, lfelli@econ.lse.ac.uk, London School of Economics, and Antonio Merlo, antonio.merlo@nyu.edu, New York University - Endogenous Lobbying 

Jimmy Chan, chan@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu, Johns Hopkins University - The Under- and Over-Reaction to Private Information in Political Competition 

Discussant:

Roger Myerson, myerson@nwu.edu, Northwestern University 

Sunday, January 7, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

POLITICAL ECONOMICS
Organizer:   Roger Myerson

Presiding: Antonio Merlo, New York University, antonio.merlo@nyu.edu

Alicia Adsera, adsera@uic.edu, University of Illinois at Chicago, Carles Boix, cboix@midway.uchicago.edu, University of Chicago, and Mark Payne, Inter-American Bank of Development - Are You Being Served?  Political Accountability and Quality of Government 

Caglar Özden, cozden@emory.edu, Emory University - Foreign Investment and Endogenous Environmental Regulation: Is There Really a Race to the Bottom? 

Joydeep Bhattacharya, joydeep@iastate.edu, Iowa State University - Inflationary Finance in a Simple Voting Model 

Discussant:

Antonio Merlo, antonio.merlo@nyu.edu, New York University 

Friday, January 5, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FAMILY 
Organizer:  Charles Manski

Presiding: V. Joseph Hotz, University of California, Los Angeles, hotz@ucla.edu

Kai Li, kai.li@commerce.ubc.ca, University of British Columbia, and Dale J. Poirier, dpoirier@uci.edu, University of California, Irvine - An Econometric Analysis of the Birth Process by Racial/Ethnic Groups

Shiferaw Gurmu, sgurmu@gsu.edu, Georgia State University, and Jose Canals, University of Colorado at Boulder - Premarital Birth, First Marriage, and the Role of Welfare and Marriage Market Factors: A Nonparametric Competing Risks Analysis 

Adonis Yatchew, yatchew@chass.utoronto.ca, and Catherine Deri, University of Toronto - Estimation of Semiparametric Equivalence Scales and Testing for Base-Independence 

Yannis Ioannides, yioannid@tufts.edu, Tufts University - Neighborhood Income Distributions 

Discussants:

Keisuke Hirano, khirano@econ.ucla.edu, University of California, Los Angeles 
Terra McKinnish, mckinnis@colorado.edu, University of Colorado-Boulder 
Charles Mullin, charles.mullin@vanderbilt.edu, Vanderbilt University 
Arie Kapteyn, kapteyn@kub.nl, RAND 

Saturday, January 6, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS
Organizer:   Charles Manski

Presiding: Adonis Yatchew, University of Toronto, yatchew@chass.utononto.ca

Lan Liang, lliang@uic.edu, University of Illinois at Chicago - Hospital Mergers and Consumer Welfare: Evidence from Obstetric Deliveries 

Yongsung Chang, yohg@econ.sas.upenn.edu, and Frank Schorfheide, University of Pennsylvania - Uncovering the Home Sector: Bayesian Estimates of Aggregate Home Production Models

Byung Mok Jeon, bmjeon@ruf.rice.edu, and Robin C. Sickles, rsickles@ruf.rice.edu, Rice University - The Role of Environmental Factors in Growth Accounting: A Nonparametric Analysis

Discussants: N/A 

Sunday, January 7, 1:00 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Organizer:   Charles Manski

Presiding: Bryan W. Brown, Rice University, bwbwn@rice.edu

Helle Bunzel, hbunzel@iastate.edu, Iowa State University - Robust Inference in Models of Cointegration 

Bryan W. Brown, bwbwn@rice.edu, and Byung M. Jeon, Rice University - Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Expectations in Dynamic Nonlinear Systems 

Carlos W. Robledo, crobled@lsu.edu, Hector O. Zapata, and Michael W. McCracken, Louisiana State University - Testing for Equal Predictive Ability: Using the Differences vs. the Ratio of MSEs 

Jae-Young Kim, jykim@csc.albany.edu, SUNY Albany - Inference on Structural Change When the Change Takes Place Over Periods of Time 

Discussants: N/A 

Sunday, January 7, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH THE PROPENSITY SCORE METHOD 
Organizer:   Charles Manski

Presiding: Alan Krueger, Princeton University, akrueger@princeton.edu

Roberto Agodini, RAgodini@mathematica-mpr.com, and Mark Dynarski, MDynarski@mathematica-mpr.com, Mathematica Policy Research - The Accuracy of Nonexperimental Methods for Evaluating Education Programs 

Donald B. Rubin, rubin@stat.harvard.edu, Harvard University - Application of Propensity Score Methods to the Tobacco Litigation 

Robert B. Olsen, and Paul T. Decker, Mathematica Policy Research - A Comparison of Experimental and Nonexperimental Estimates of the Impacts of the Job Search Assistance Demonstration 

Guido W. Imbens, imbens@econ.ucla.edu, University of California, Los Angeles - The Role of the Propensity Score in Estimating Dose-Response Functions 

Discussants:

Rajeev Dehejia, rd247@columbia.edu, Columbia University 
Alan Krueger, akrueger@princeton.edu, Princeton University 

Friday, January 5, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

DYNAMIC MODELS OF INCENTIVES
Organizer:  George Mailath

Presiding: Michael Waldman, Cornell University, mw46@cornell.edu

Navneet Arora, aroran@bschool.unc.edu, and Hui Ou-Yang, ou-yangh@bschool.unc.edu, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - A Continuous - Time Model of Explicit and Implicit Incentives 

Jerome Detemple, detemple@bu.edu, Boston University, and Suresh Govindaraj, sg327@columbia.edu, Columbia University - Linear Contracts and Intertemporal Incentives with Hidden Actions 

Michael Waldman, mw46@cornell.edu, Cornell University - Leasing, Lemons, and Moral Hazard 

Discussants:

Justin Johnson, Cornell University
Hodaka Morita, University of New South Wales
Jan Zabojnik, University of Southern California

Friday, January 5, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

CONTRACTS AND RENEGOTIATION
Organizer:   George Mailath

Presiding: Yossi Spiegel, Northwestern University, y-spiegel@nwu.edu

Steven A. Matthews, stevenma@ssc.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania, and Matthias Dewatripont, and Patrick Legros, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and ECARE - Debt Renegotiation with Observable Effort 

Alberto Bisin, alberto.bisin@nyu.edu, New York University, and Adriano A. Rampini, rampini@nwu.edu, Northwestern University - Exclusive Contracts and the Institution of Bankruptcy

Sergei Severinov, sseverin@ssc.wisc.edu, and Raymond Deneckere, University of Wisconsin - Communication Costs and the Revelation Principle 

Yossi Spiegel, y-spiegel@nwu.edu, Northwestern University, and Elazar Berkovitch, Tel Aviv University, and Ronen Israel, University of Michigan - A Moral Hazard Model of Organizational Design 

Discussants: N/A 

Friday, January 5, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

INFORMATION AND MARKETS
Organizer:   George Mailath

Presiding: Rohit Rahi, London School of Economics, r.rahi@lse.ac.uk

Gary Gorton, gorton@wharton.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania, and Eitan Goldman, goldmane@bschool.unc.edu, University of North Carolina - The Visible Hand, The Invisible Hand and Efficiency 

Marco Ottaviani, m.ottaviani@ucl.ac.uk, and Thomas de Garidel-Thoron, University College London - Delegation vs. Cheap Talk Communication 

Andrei Simonov, andrei.simonov@hhs.se, Stockholm School of Economics - Competition in Markets for Information 

Rohit Rahi, r.rahi@lse.ac.uk, London School of Economics, and Piero Gottardi - Efficiency Properties of Rational Expectations Equilibria with Asymmetric Information 

Discussants:  N/A 

Saturday, January 6, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

R & D SPILLOVERS, PATENTS
Organizer:  Ennio Stacchetti

Presiding: Sergei Severinov, University of Wisconsin, sseverin@ssc.wisc.edu

Kaz Miyagiwa, kmiyagi@unix1.sncc.lsu.edu, Louisiana State University, and Yuka Ohno, Rice University - Uncertainty, Spillovers, and Cooperative R & D 

Sergei Severinov, sseverin@ssc.wisc.edu, University of Wisconsin - Sustaining Cooperation through Delegation 

Herbert Dawid, dherbert@usc.edu, University of Southern California, and G. I. Bischi, Universita di Urbino, and M. Kopel, Vienna University of Technology - On the Evolution of Market Shares in the Presence of Spillover Effects 

Discussants:

Nicola Persico, persico@ssc.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania 
Steven A. Matthews, stevenma@ssc.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania 
Alessandro Lizzeri, lizzeri@phoenix.Princeton.edu, Princeton University 

Sunday, January 7, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

DYNAMIC MODELS OF IMPERFECT COMPETITION
Organizer:   Ennio Stacchetti

Presiding: Michael Waldman, Cornell University, mw46@cornell.edu

Kwang Soo Cheong, kscheong@hawaii.edu, University of Hawaii, and Kenneth Judd, Hoover Institution - Stackelberg Equilibrium and Adjustment Costs in a Dynamic Duopoly Model 

Bruno Amable, University of Lille II and CEPREMAP, and Donatella Gatti, gatti@medea.wz-berlin.de, Social Science Research Center Berlin - Product Market Competition and Employment Fluctuations 

Hodaka Morita, H.Morita@unsw.edu.au, University of New South Wales, Michael Waldman, mw46@cornell.edu, Cornell University - Competition, Monopoly Maintenance, and Consumer Switching Costs 

Discussants:

Michael Waldman, mw46@cornell.edu, Cornell University 
Alain Delacroix, delacroixa@mgmt.purdue.edu, Purdue University 
Yossi Spiegel, y-spiegel@nwu.edu, Northwestern University 

Saturday, January 6, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

INCENTIVES, MECHANISM DESIGN
Organizer:   Ennio Stacchetti

Presiding: Marco Ottaviani, University College London, m.ottaviani@ucl.ac.uk

Luis M. B. Cabral, lcabral@stern.nyu.edu, New York University, and J. Miguel Villas-Boas, villas@haas.berkeley.edu, University of California, Berkeley - Multiproduct Oligopoly and the Bertrand Supertrap

Charles J. Thomas, cjthomas@ftc.gov, Federal Trade Commission - Collusion and Optimal Reserve Prices in Repeated Procurement Auctions 

Frank H. Page, Jr., fpage@cba.ua.edu, University of Alabama - Competitive Selling Mechanisms: the Delegation Principle and Farsighted Stability 

Discussants:

Marco Ottaviani, m.ottaviani@ucl.ac.uk, University College London 
Leonardo Felli, felli@ssc.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania 
Sergei Severinov, sseverin@ssc.wisc.edu, University of Wisconsin 

Sunday, January 7, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

COOPERATIVE GAME THEORY
Organizer:  Carolyn Pitchik

Presiding: Marco Ottaviani, University College London, m.ottaviani@ucl.ac.uk

Laurence Kranich, L.Kranich@albany.edu, University at Albany, SUNY, and Andres Perea, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and Hans Peters, University of Maastricht - Dynamic Cooperative Games 

Stefan Napel, napel@wior.uni-karlsruhe.de, Institute für Wirtschaftstheorie and Operations Research (WIOR), Universität Karsruhe, and Mika Widgren, mika.widgren@yjs.fi, Turku School of Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation - Inferior Players in Simple Games 

Szilvia Pápai, spapai@fe.unl.pt, Universidade Nova de Lisboa - Stable Collections of Coalitions 

Discussants:

Szilvia Papai, spapai@fe.unl.pt, Universidade Nova de Lisboa 
Laurence Kranich, L.Kranich@albany.edu, University of Albany, SUNY 
Mika Widgren, mika.widgren@yjs.fi, Turku School of Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research, and Yrjo Jahnsson Foundation 

Saturday, January 6, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

APPLIED GAME THEORY
Organizer: Carolyn Pitchik

Presiding: William H. Sandholm, University of Wisconsin, whs@ssc.wisc.edu

Glenn Ellison, gellison@mit.edu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology - Social Norms and the Slowdown of the Economics Publishing Process 

Nirvikar Singh, boxjenk@cats.ucsc.edu, and Daniel Friedman, dan@cats.ucsc.edu, University of California, Santa Cruz - The Evolution of Negative Reciprocity 

Hongbin Cai, cai@econ.ucla.edu, University of California, Los Angeles - War or Peace: Which Leads to More Arms 

Discussants:

Hongbin Cai, cai@econ.ucla.edu, University of California, Los Angeles 
Ted Bergstrom, tedb@econ.ucsb.edu, University of California, Santa Barbara 
Daniel Friedman, dan@cats.ucsc.edu, University of California, Santa Cruz 

Friday, January 5, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

TOPICS IN GAME THEORY
Organizer: Carolyn Pitchik

Presiding: Yaw Nyarko, New York University, yaw.nyarko@nyu.edu

Ronald Britto, Rbritto@binghamton.edu, State University of New York, Binghamton - Committee Decision-Making: The Optimal Number of Categories 

Fan-chin Kung, kung@wueconc.wustl.edu, Washington University - Formation of Collective Decision-Making Units: Stability and a Solution 

Eduardo Zambrano, Zambrano.1@nd.edu, University of Notre Dame - Epistemic Conditions for Rationalizability 

Discussants:

Eduardo Zambrano, Zambrano.1@nd.edu, University of Notre Dame 
Ronald Britto, Rbritto@binghamton.edu, State University of New York, Binghamton 
Fan-chin Kung, kung@wueconc.wustl.edu, Washington University 

Saturday, January 6, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE THEORY
Organizer:  Kala Krishna

Presiding: Caroline Freund, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Bank, caroline.1.freund@frb.gov

Richard Chisik, chisikr@fiu.edu, Florida International University, and Ronald Davies, rdavies@oregon.uoregon.edu, University of Oregon - Gradualism in Tax Treaties with Irreversible Foreign Direct Investment 

Eric Bond, ewb@psu.edu, and Tom Gresik, Pennsylvania State University - Information Sharing with Asymmetrically Informed Governments

Kala Krishna, kmk4@psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University and National Bureau of Economic Research, and Torben Tranaes, University of Copenhagen - Why Fast Track? 

Discussants:

Eric Bond, ewbl@psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University 
Neelam Jain, jain@rice.edu, Rice University 
Tom Prusa, prusa@rci.rutgers.edu, Rutgers University 

Sunday, January 7, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE: EMPIRICAL
Organizer:   Kala Krishna

Presiding: Jim Tybout, Pennsylvania State University, jxt32@psu.edu

Sangin Park, sanpark@notes.cc.sunysb.edu, and Chiung-Yu Huang, SUNY at Stony Brook - An Empirical Evaluation of the Semiconductor Trade Arrangement 

Wolfgang Keller, keller@eco.utexas.edu, University of Texas - The Geography of the World's Technology Frontier

Scott Bradford, bradford@byu.edu, Brigham Young University - Paying the Price: The Welfare Effects of Trade Barriers and Inflated Distribution Margins in OECD Countries

Discussants:

Susumu Imai, sxi5@psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University 
Jim Tybout, jxt32@psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University 
Phil Swagel, CEA and International Monetary Fund 

Sunday, January 7, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

INTERNATIONAL MACRO: EXCHANGE RATES
Organizer:   Kala Krishna

Presiding: Norman Swanson, Texas A & M University, nswanson@ucsd.edu

Soyoung Kim, kim11@uiuc.edu, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Business Cycles in the Flexible and Fixed Exchange Rate Regime 

Philip R. Lane, plane@tcd.ie, Trinity College Dublin and CEPR, and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, International Monetary Fund and CEPR - The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates 

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, South Bank University, g.m.caporale@sbu.ac.uk, and Derick Boyd, University of East London, and Ron Smith, Birkbeck College, London - Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition 

Discussants:

Michael S. Hanson, mshanson@mail.wesleyan.edu, Wesleyan University
Alan Taylor, amtaylor@ucdavis.edu, University of California, Davis 
Norman Swanson, nswanson@ucsd.edu, Texas A & M University 

Friday, January 5, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

INTERNATIONAL MACRO
Organizer:   Kala Krishna

Presiding: Neil Wallace, Pennsylvania State University, neilw@psu.edu

Paul R. Bergin, prbergin@ucdavis.edu, University of California, Davis - A Test of the New International Macroeconomics 

Allen Head, heada@qed.econ.queensu.ca, and Todd Mattina, and Gregor Smith, Queen's University - Utility-Based Measures of International Risk-Sharing 

Bent E. Sorensen, Bent.E.Sorensen@kc.frb.org, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Risk Sharing and Sectoral Specialization: Regional and International Evidence 

Discussants:

Shagill Ahmed, Federal Reserve Board 
Jenny Li, Li@math.psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University 
John Rogers, Federal Reserve Board

Friday, January 5, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

AUCTIONS
Organizer:  Susan Athey

Presiding: Estelle Cantillon, Harvard Business School, ecantill@kuznets.fas.harvard.edu

Gopal Das Varma, dasvarma@mail.duke.edu, Duke University - The Pareto Optimality of Disclosing Bidder Identities

Charles Z. Zheng, czheng@nwu.edu, Northwestern University - Salvaging Optimal Auction When Resale Is Allowed 

Bernard Lebrun, bleb@ecn.ulaval.ca, Universite Laval - First Price Auctions in the Independent Private Value Model 

Discussants:

John Morgan, rjmorgan@princeton.edu, Princeton University 
Dan Vincent, vincent@econ.umd.edu, University of Maryland 
Pat Bajari, bajari@leland.Stanford.EDU, Stanford University 

Friday, January 5, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

LEARNING AND RATIONALITY: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS
Organizer:   Susan Athey

Presiding: Yan Chen, University of Michigan, yanchen@umich.edu

W. Bentley MacLeod, wmacleod@usc.edu, University of Southern California - Cognition and the Theory of Learning by Doing 

William T. Harbaugh, harbaugh@oregon.uoregon.edu, University of Oregon, and Kate Krause, kkrause@unm.edu, University of New Mexico, and Tim Berry, trb@gladstone.uoregon.edu, University of Oregon - GARP: For Kids: On the Development of Rational Choice Behavior 

Antonella Ianni, a.ianni@soton.ac.uk, University of Southampton - Reinforcement Learning and the Power Law of Practice: Some Analytical Results 

Discussants:

Yaw Nyarko, yaw.nyarko@nyu.edu, New York University 
Ernan Haruvy, haruvy@ie.technion.ac.il, Technion 
Rajiv Sarin, rsarin@econ.tamu.edu, Texas A & M University 

Friday, January 5, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

NON-EXPECTED UTILITY AND TIME INCONSISTENCY
Organizer:   Susan Athey

Presiding: Ricky Lam, Northwestern University, ricky.lam@yale.edu

Ted O'Donoghue, edo1@cornell.edu, Cornell University, and Matthew Rabin, University of California – Berkeley - Procrastination on Long-Term Projects 

Jacob Sagi, sagi@commerce.ubc.ca, and Alan Kraus, University of British Columbia - Inter-temporal Preference for Flexibility and Risky Choice 

Tan Wang, tan.wang@commerce.ubc.ca, University of British Columbia - Conditional Preference and Updating

Discussants:

David Laibson, dlaibson@harvard.edu, Harvard University 
Ricky Lam, ricky.lam@yale.edu, Northwestern University 
Ettore Damiano, vincenzo.damiano@yale.edu, University of Toronto 

Saturday, January 6, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

FERTILITY, FEMALE LABOR PARTICIPATION AND SCHOOLING
Organizer:  Dilip Mookherjee

Presiding: Eli Berman, Boston University, eli@bu.edu

Alicia Adsera, adsera@uic.edu, University of Illinois at Chicago - Changing Fertility Rates in Developed Countries. The Impact of Labor Market 

Pushkar Maitra, Pushkar.Maitra@BusEco.monash.edu.au, Monash University, and Lata Gangadharan, gangadha@cupid.ecom.unimelb.edu.au, University of Melbourne - The Effect of Education on the Timing of Marriage and First Conception in Pakistan 

Evangelos M. Falaris, falaris@udel.edu, University of Delaware - The Effect of Survey Attrition in Longitudinal Surveys: Evidence from Developing Countries 

Discussants:

Shiferaw Gurmu, sgurmu@gsu.edu, Georgia State University 
Sang-Hyop Lee, Leesang@hawaii.edu, University of Hawaii 
Eli Berman, eli@bu.edu, Boston University 

Friday, January 5, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

UNCERTAINTY, POVERTY AND HEALTH
Organizer:   Dilip Mookherjee

Presiding: Elaina Rose, University of Washington,  erose@u.washington.edu

Russell L. Lamb, Russell_Lamb@ncsu.edu, North Carolina State University - Weather Risk and the Portfolio of Crop Choices in the Semi-Arid Tropics 

Priyanka Pandey, pxp22@psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University - Illness, Income and Poverty in Developing Countries 

Sang-Hyop Lee, Leesang@hawaii.edu, University of Hawaii - The Effect of Immunization on the Probability of Child Survival.

Suzanne Gleason, sgleason@nmr.mgh.harvard.edu, Harvard Medical School - Female Political Participation in India: Impact on Health Outcomes 

Discussants:

Marcel Fafchamps, marcel.fafchamps@economics.oxford.ac.uk, Oxford University 
Agnes Quisumbing, A.Quisumbing@cgiar.org, International Food Policy Research Institute 
Elaina Rose, erose@u.washington.edu, University of Washington

Sunday, January 7, 1:00 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.

FISCAL POLICY AND DECENTRALIZATION
Organizer:   Dilip Mookherjee

Presiding: Yingyi Qian, University of Maryland, yqian@wam.umd.edu

Ronald A. Edwards, redwards@ieas.econ.sinica.edu.tw, Academia Sinica - The Military and Development: The Case of China, 900-1900 A.D.

Nirvikar Singh, boxjenk@cats.ucsc.edu, University of Califiornia, Santa Cruz, and M. Govinda Rao, Institute for Social and Economic Change - The Political Economy of Center-State Fiscal Transfers in India 

Raghav Gaiha, University of Delhi, and Katsushi Imai, University of Oxford - Rural Public Works and Poverty Alleviation – The Case of the Employment Guarantee Scheme in (the Indian State of) Maharashtra 

Discussants:

Joydeep Bhattacharya, joydeep@iastate.edu, Iowa State University 
Alicia Adsera, adsera@uic.edu, University of Illinois at Chicago 
Priyanka Pandey, pxp22@psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University 

Saturday, January 6, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

GROWTH, CONVERGENCE AND TRADE
Organizer:   Dilip Mookherjee

Presiding: Eric Bond, Pennsylvania State University, ewb1@psu.edu

Stephen C. Smith, scsmith@gwu.edu, George Washington University, and Randa El Khechen Sab, International Monetary Fund - On Human Capital Convergence 

Menzie D. Chinn, chin@cats.ucsc.edu, University of California, Santa Cruz, and Eswar S. Prasad, eprasad@imf.org, International Monetary Fund - Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration 

Eli Berman, eli@bu.edu, Boston University - Does Factor-Based Technological Change Stifle International Convergence?

Discussants:

Eli Berman, eli@bu.edu, Boston University 
Paul Bergin, prbergin@ucdavis.edu, University of California, Davis 
Bent E. Sorensen, Bent.E.Sorensen@kc.frb.org, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 

Saturday, January 6, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

TRANSITION ECONOMICS I -- DETERMINANTS AND EFFECTS OF PRIVATIZATION
Organizer:  Jan Svejnar

Presiding: Eric Berglof, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics and European Economics

Jan Hanousek, jan.hanousek@cerge.cuni.cz, CERGE-EI, and Zdenek Tuma, zdenek.tuma@cnb.cz, Czech National Bank - Privatization as a Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis 

John Bennett, john.bennett@brunel.ac.uk, Brunel University, and Saul Estrin, sestrin@lbs.lon.ac.uk, London Business School, and James Maw, j.maw@swan.ac.uk, University of Wales Swansea - Privatization, Partial State Ownership and Give-Aways of Firms in Transition Economies 

Nandini Gupta, wdi@umich.edu, University of Michigan, and John Ham, johnham@econ.ohio-state.edu, Ohio State University, and Jan Svejnar, svejnar@umich.edu, University of Michigan - Priorities and Sequencing of Privatization: Theory and Evidence from the Czech Republic

Discussants:

Barry Ickes, bwickes@psu.edu, Pennsylvania State University
Dan Berkowitz, dmberk+@pitt.edu, University of Pittsburgh 
Eric Berglof, Stockholm Institute of Transaction Economics and European Economies 

Sunday, January 7, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

TRANSITION ECONOMICS II -- APPLIED MICROECONOMETRIC STUDIES
Organizer:   Jan Svejnar

Presiding: Gur Ofer, Hebrew University, msgur@mscc.huji.ac.il

Bernard Yeung, byeung@stern.nyu.edu, New York University, and Randall Morck, randall.morck@ualberta.ca, University of Alberta - Firm-Specific Variation in Stock Returns and Allocation of Resources 

Harmut Lehmann, hlemann@tcd.ie, Heriot-Watt University, and Jonathan Wadsworth, j.wadsworth@lse.ac.uk, London School of Economics, and Ruslan Yemtsov, ryemtsov@worldbank.org, The World Bank - They Who Get Slapped: Wage Arrears and the Distribution of Earnings in Russia 

Albert Park, alpark@econ.lsa.umich.edu, University of Michigan - Competition Under Credit Rationing: Theory and Evidence from Rural China

Discussants:

Gur Ofer, msgur@mscc.huji.ac.il, Hebrew University 
Todd Idson, ti18@pop.columbia.edu, Columbia University 
Robert Chase, rchase@mail.jhubc.it, Johns Hopkins University 

Sunday, January 7, 1:00 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.

LIFE CYCLE MODELS
Organizer:  John Ham

Presiding: Richard Blundell, University College, London, r.blundell@ucl.ac.uk

David Andolfatto, dandolfa@uwaterloo.ca, University of Waterloo, Christopher Ferrall, Queen's University, and Paul Gomme, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - Can Human Capital Theory Explain the Distribution of Earnings and Income 

Hugo Benitez-Silva, benitez@yale.edu, SUNY at Stony Brook - A Dynamic Model of Labor Supply, Consumption/Savings and Annuity Decisions Under Uncertainty 

Martin Browning, University of Copenhagen, and Thomas Crossley, crossley@yorku.ca, York University - The Long Run Costs of Job Loss as Measured by Consumption Changes

John Rust, jrust@gemini.econ.yale.edu,Yale University, Moshe Buchinsky, Brown University, Hugo Benitez-Silva, benitez@yale.edu, SUNY at Stony Brook, and Sofia Cheidvasser, Yale University and Goldman Sachs - Social Insurance at the End of the Life Cycle: A Joint Model of Unemployment, Disability, Old-Age and Medicare Benefits 

Discussants:

Nathan Porter, nporter@econ.sas.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania 
Curtis Eberwein, eberwein@leacock.lan.mcgill.ca, McGill University
Richard Blundell, r.blundell@ucl.ac.uk University College, London
Brent Kreider, bk5x@Virginia.EDU, University of Virginia

Saturday, January 6, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

THE EFFECT OF PUBLIC POLICY ON WELFARE PARTICIPATION
Organizer:   John Ham

Presiding:   Patricia Reagan, Ohio State University, preagan@ecolan.sbs.ohio-state.edu

Rachel Connelly, connelly@polar.bowdoin.edu, Bowdoin College, and Jean Kimmel, kimmel@we.upjohninst.org, W.E. Upjohn Institute - The Effect of Child Care Costs on the Labor Force Particpation and Welfare Recipiency of Single Mothers: Implications for Welfare Reform

Hanming Fang, hfang@econ.sas.upenn.edu, Yale University, and Dan Silverman, silvermd@econ.sas.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania - Dole Meets Laibson: On the Compassion of Time-Limited Welfare 

John Ham, johnham@ecolan.sbs.ohio-state.edu, Ohio State University, and Lara Shore-Sheppard, ldshore+@pitt.edu, Williams College - The Effect of Medicaid Expansions on the Labor Market Transitions of Disadvantaged Women 

Bruce Meyer, bmeyer@nwu.edu, and Brian Jenn,Northwestern University - A Structural Model of Welfare, Taxes, Labor Supply and Program Participation 

Discussants:

Patricia Reagan, preagan@ecolan.sbs.ohio-state.edu, Ohio State University 
Daniele Paserman, dpaserma@kuznets.harvard.edu, Harvard University 
Theresa Devine, Office of the Public Advocate (New York City) 
Kenneth Chay, University of California, Berkeley 

Friday, January 5, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

LABOR AND DEVELOPMENT
Organizer:   John Ham

Presiding: Duncan Thomas, University of California, Los Angeles, dtjp,as@rand.org

Ayal Kimhi, kimhi@agri.huji.ac.il, Hebrew University, Robert Evenson, and Sanjay DeSilva - Labor Supervision and Transactions Costs: Evidence from Philippine Farms 

Lee Lillard, lilllard@umich.edu, and Shailender Swaminathan, sswamin@umich.edu, University of Michigan - Women's Health and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Indonesia 

John Maluccio, j.maluccio@cgair.org, and Lawrence Haddad, International Food Research Policy Institute, Duncan Thomas, dthomas@rand.org, University of California, Los Angeles, RAND and International Food Research Policy Institute - Changing Household Structure and Child Welfare in South Africa 

Petra Todd, petra@athena.sas.upenn.edu, and Jere Behrman, and Yingmei Cheng, University of Pennsylvania - Evaluating Preschool Programs When Length of Exposure to the Program Varies: A Non-Parametric Approach 

Discussants:

Duncan Thomas, University of California, Los Angeles 
George Jakubson, Cornell University 
Dwayne Benjamin, University of Toronto
Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Ohio State University 

Saturday, January 6, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

DURATION MODELS OF THE LABOR MARKET
Organizer:   John Ham

Presiding: Guido Imbens, University of California, Los Angeles, imbens@econ.ucla.edu

Stefano DellaVigna, sdellavi@kuznets.harvard.edu, and Daniele Paserman, dpaserma@kuznets.harvard.edu, Harvard University - Job Search and Hyperbolic Discounting

Stepan Jurajda, stepan.jurajda@cerge.cuni.cz, CERGE (Prague) - Estimating the Effect of Unemployment Insurance on the Labor Market Histories of Displaced Workers 

Nathan Porter, nporter@econ.sas.upenn.edu, University of Pennsylvania - Are the Long-Term Unemployed Stigmatized 

Tiemen Woutersen, twouters@chico.pstc.brown.edu, Brown University - Duration Estimators for Social Experiments with Heterogeneous Impacts and Self Selection 

Discussants:

Hanming Fang, Yale University 
Michael Baker, University of Toronto 
Curtis Eberwein, McGill University 
Guido Imbens, imbens@econ.ucla.edu, University of California, Los Angeles 

Sunday, January 7, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMETRICS OF CONTINUOUS TIME STOCHASTIC PROCESSES 
Organizer:  Hidehiko Ichimura

Presiding: Lars Hansen, University of Chicago, l-hansen@uchicago.edu

Guillermo Moloche, gmoloche@mit.edu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology - Local Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusions 

Federico M. Bandi, federico.bandi@gsb.uchicago.edu, University of Chicago, and Thong Nguyen, Yale University - On the Functional Estimation of Jump-diffusion Processes

Eric Ghysels, eghysels@unc.edu, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, and Marine Carrasco, University of Rochester, and Mikhail Chernov, Columbia University, and Jean-Pierre Florens, Toulouse University - Estimating Diffusions With a Continuum of Moment Conditions 

Discussants:

Andrew Lo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Darrell Duffie, duffie_darrell@gsb.stanford.edu, Stanford University 
Lars Hansen, l-hansen@uchicago.edu, University of Chicago 

Friday, January 5, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

DEVELOPMENTS IN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS*
Organizer:   Hidehiko Ichimura

Presiding:  Halbert White, University of California, San Diego, hwhite@weber.ucsd.edu

Yongmiao Hong, yh20@cornell.edu, Cornell University, and Halbert White, halbert@weber.ucsd.edu, University of California, San Diego - Asymptotic Distribution Theory for Entropy-Based Measures of Serial Dependence 

Jushan Bai, baij@bc.edu, and Serena Ng, Boston College - Determining The Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models 

Elena Pesavento, epesave@emory.edu, Emory University - An Analytical Evaluation of the Power of Tests for the Absence of Cointegration 

Michael Binder, binder@glue.umd.edu, University of Maryland, and Cheng Hsiao, chsiao@rcf.usc.edu, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, and M. Hashem Pesaran, hashem.pesaran@econ.cam.ac.uk, University of Cambridge - Estimation and Inference in Short Panel Vector Autoregression with Unit Roots and Cointegration 

Discussants:

Jeffrey Wooldridge, Michigan State University 
Stephen Donald, Boston University 
Bruce Hansen, University of Wisconsin 
Yoosoon Chang, Rice University 

Sunday, January 7, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

DEVELOPMENTS IN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Organizer:   Hidehiko Ichimura

Presiding: Christopher Sims, Princeton University, sims@princeton.edu

Clive Granger, granger@ucsd.edu, University of California, San Diego, and Namwon Hyung,  hyung@few.eur.nl, Tinbergen Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam - Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory 

Joon Park, jpark@plaza.snu.ac.kr, Seoul National University - Nonstationary Nonlinear Heteroskedasticity: An Alternative to ARCH 

Silvia Goncalves, silvia.goncalves@umontreal.ca, University of Montreal, and Halbert White, halbert@weber.ucsd.edu, University of California, San Diego - Maximum Likelihood and the Bootstrap for Nonlinear Dynamic Models 

Valentina Corradi, v.corradi@qmw.ac.uk, Queen Mary and Westfield College, University of London, and Norman Swanson, nswanson@econ.tamu.edu, Texas A & M University - A Bootstrap Test for Out of Sample Nonlinear Granger Causality 

Discussants:

Christopher Sims, Princeton University 
Mark Watson, Princeton University 
Atsushi Inoue, North Carolina State University 
Jushan Bai, baij@bc.edu, Boston College

Friday, January 5, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

DEVELOPMENTS IN MICROECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
Organizer:   Hidehiko Ichimura

Presiding: Bo Honore, Princeton University, honore@princeton.edu

Mark Coppejans, mtc@econ.duke.edu, Duke University, and Ron Gallant, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill - Cross Validated SNP Density Estimates 

Xiaohong Chen, x.chen1@lse.ac.uk, London School of Economics, and Richard Blundell, University College London - Engle Curves with Endogenous Expenditure 

Arthur Lewbel, lewbel@bc.edu, Boston College - Two Stage Least Squares Estimation of Endogenous Sample Selection Models 

Zhijie Xiao, zxiao@uiuc.edu, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Oliver Linton, o.linton@lse.ac.uk, London School of Economics - A Nonparametric Prewhitened Covariance Estimator 

Discussants:

Elie Tamer, tamer@princeton.edu, Princeton University
Bo Honore, honore@princeton.edu, Princeton University 
James Powell, University College London 
Whitney Newey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 

Sunday, January 7, 1:00 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.

DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMETRIC METHODS
Organizer:   Hidehiko Ichimura

Presiding: James Stock, Harvard University,  James_Stock@harvard.edu

Tong Li, toli@indiana.edu, Indiana University - Consistent Estimation of Nonlinear Errors-in-Variables Models 

Victor Chernozhukov, vchern@leland.stanford.edu, Stanford University - Specification and Model Test Processes for Quantile Regression 

Gautam Tripathi, gtripath@ssc.wisc.edu, and Yuichi Kitamura, ykitamura@ssc.wisc.edu, University of Wisconsin-Madison - Testing Conditional Moment Restrictions: A Smoothed Empirical Likelihood Approach 

Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, flores-lagunes.45@osu.edu, Ohio State University - IV Estimation Methods Robust To Weak Instruments 

Discussants:

Sussane Schennach, University of Chicago
Roger Koenker, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 
George Tauchen, Duke University 
James Stock, Harvard University 

Friday, January 5, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTAL 
AND NONEXPERIMENTAL AUCTION DATA
Organizer:   Hidehiko Ichimura

Presiding: John Kagel, Ohio State University, kagel@econ.ohio-state.edu

Phil Haile, phaile@ssc.wisc.edu, University of Wisconsin, and Han Hong, doubleh@princeton.edu, Princeton University, and Matthew Shum, mshum@chass.utoronto.ca, University of Toronto - Nonparametric Tests for Common Values 

Sandra Campo, and Isabelle Perrigne, perrigne@usc.edu, and Quang Vuong, University of Southern California - Semiparametric Estimation of First-Price Auctions with Risk Averse Bidders 

A. Alexander Elbittar, elbittar@itam.edu, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico - Information Impact of Ranking of Valuations on Bidder Behavior in First Price Auctions: A Laboratory Study 

Jacob Goeree, jg2n@unix.mail.virginia.edu, University of Virginia, and Theo Offerman, University of Amsterdam - Efficiency in Auctions with Private and Common Values: An Experimental Study 

Discussants:

Hidehiko Ichimura, h.ichimura@ucl.ac.uk, University College London
James Powell, University of California, Berkeley 
Matthew Shum, University of Toronto 
John Kagel, kagel@econ.ohio-state.edu, Ohio State University 

Saturday, January 6, 10:15 A.M. - 12:15 P.M.

DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF MODEL SELECTION AND TESTING
Organizer:   Hidehiko Ichimura

Presiding: Whitney Newey, newey@mit.edu, Massachusettes Institute of Technology

Jesus Gonzalo, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and Jean-Yves Pitarakis, University of Reading - Estimation and Model Selection Based Inference in Single and Multiple Threshold Models

Bruce Hansen, bhansen@ssc.wisc.edu, University of Wisconsin - Confidence Interval Construction via the GMM Criterion 

Derrick P. Reagle, and H. D. Vinod, Fordham University - Proving the Absence: Over-Acceptance of Theory and Applications to Econometric Testing 

Discussants:

Shakeeb Khan, skhan@troi.cc.rochester.edu, University of Rochester 
Xiaohong Chen, London School of Economics 
Yuichi Kitamura, University of Wisconsin

Sunday, January 7, 1:00 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.

INTERJURISDICTIONAL COMPETITION
Organizer:  Myrna Wooders

Presiding: Amrita Dhillon, University of Warwick, A.Dhillon@warwick.ac.uk

Jonathan Hamilton, hamilton@dale.cba.ufl.edu, and Pierre Pestieau, University of Liege - Labour Mobility and Optimal Income Taxation 

Eckhardt Janeba, University of Colorado, and Michael Smart, msmart@chass.utoronto.ca, University of Toronto - Could International Tax Competition Be Less Harmful Than Its Remedies? 

Kangoh Lee, klee@towson.edu, Towson State University - Fiscal Competition Under Uncertainty 

Flavio Menezes, flavio.menezes@fgv.br, FGV/EPGE - An Auction Theoretical Approach To Fiscal Wars 

Discussants:   N/A 

Friday, January 5, 2:30 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.

PUBLIC GOOD PROVISION
Organizer: Myrna Wooders

Presiding: Alessandro Lizzeri, Princeton University, lizzeri@princeton.edu

Jan Brueckner, jbrueckn@uiuc.edu, University of Illinois - Tax Increment Financing: A Theoretical Enquiry 

Gareth Myles, University of Exeter, and Charles Figuieres, GREMAQ and CORE, and Jean Hindriks, Queen Mary and CORE - Tax and Benefit Competition

Andrei M. Gomberg, gomberg@itam.mx, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico - Equilibrium in a Multi-Jurisdiction Model 

Ignatius Horstman, horstman@julian.uwo.ca, University of Western Ontario, and Kimberly Scharf, k.scharf@warwick.ac.uk, University of Warwick - Can a Ban on the Private Provision of Public Goods Promote Social Cohesion?

Discussants:  N/A 

Friday, January 5, 8:00 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.

IMPACTS OF PUBLIC POLICIES
Organizer: Myrna Wooders

Presiding: Giorgio Topa, New York University, Giorgio.topa@nyu.edu

Michael Brien, University of Virginia, and Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Syracuse University, and David Weaver, Social Security Administration - Widows Waiting to Wed (?) (Re) Marriage and Economic Incentives in Social Security Widow Benefits 

Robert A. Book, rbook@uchicago.edu, University of Chicago - Public Research Funding and Private Innovation 

Helmut Cremer, and Philippe De Donder, University of Toulouse, and Firouz Gahvari, fgahvari@uiuc.edu, University of Illinois - Political Sustainability and the Design of Environmental Taxes

Discussants:

Susan Snyder, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 
Jonathan Cave, Rand Europe, and University of Warwick 
Paola Conconi, P.Conconi@warwick.ac.uk, University of Warwick