|
On the Predictability of Economic Events
J. S. Jordan
Abstract
Grunberg and Modigliani [3] investigated the existence of a public prediction which, if believed by economic decision makers, would prove correct. The present paper continues this research using a model of general exchange equilibrium under uncertainty. The principal results is that unless the public prediction is based on a very narrow class of data, a statistically correct prediction may fail to exist even for otherwise well-behaved economies.
|
